永创智能点评报告：拟推股权激励计划彰显信心，人形机器人业务打开成长空间

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company plans to issue a stock incentive plan for 5.08 million restricted shares, representing about 1% of the total share capital, which reflects confidence in future growth [1] - The humanoid robot business is expected to open up growth opportunities, with a projected demand of approximately 2.1 million units in the manufacturing and home service sectors by 2030, translating to a market space of about 314.6 billion RMB [2] - The company's main business is anticipated to reach a turning point in 2025, driven by product upgrades, category expansion, and domestic substitution [3] Summary by Sections Stock Incentive Plan - The company announced a stock incentive plan for 2025, targeting 78 individuals with performance-based vesting conditions over three years [1] - The conditions for lifting restrictions include revenue growth of at least 30% in 2025, 40% in 2026, and 50% in 2027, or net profit growth of at least 60%, 70%, and 80% respectively [1][12] Humanoid Robot Business - The establishment of a subsidiary focused on humanoid robots indicates a strategic entry into a growing market [2] - The humanoid robot industry is accelerating, with significant advancements from competitors, suggesting a competitive landscape [2] Main Business Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a steady increase in orders and the upcoming production of liquid intelligent packaging lines, which could add approximately 1.02 billion RMB in net profit annually [3] - The global packaging equipment market is projected to grow from 55.1 billion USD in 2023 to 77.7 billion USD by 2032, with a CAGR of 3.9% [3] - The company is diversifying its product line, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge and reduce the gap with global leaders [3] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 3.33 billion, 3.97 billion, and 4.91 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 6%, 19%, and 24% respectively [4] - The net profit forecast for the same period is 0.18 billion, 1.86 billion, and 2.70 billion RMB, with significant growth expected in 2025 [4][6]