摩根士丹利：美团业绩-社保影响从二季度体现

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan is Overweight (OW) with an attractive industry view [7]. Core Insights - The report estimates that Meituan's core operating profit (OP) for 2025 will remain intact at Rmb61 billion, but the losses from new initiatives are expected to widen to Rmb9.5 billion due to a slower loss reduction pace for Meituan Select [1][4]. - The impact of the social security scheme is anticipated to begin in the second quarter of 2025, but it is expected to have a limited effect on food delivery operating profit and user engagement [4]. - The report highlights a significant improvement in food delivery volume momentum, with an estimated growth of 10% in 2025, aligning with market expectations [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 4Q24, total revenue rose by 20% year-over-year, with core local commerce (CLC) revenue increasing by 19% and operating profit rising by 61% [25]. - For 1Q25, total revenues are projected to reach Rmb85.7 billion, reflecting a 17% year-over-year increase, with adjusted EBITDA expected to be Rmb10.9 billion, up 36% year-over-year [3]. - The report anticipates total CLC revenue and OP for 2025 to be Rmb293 billion and Rmb61 billion, respectively, both representing a 17% increase [4]. Revenue Estimates and Adjustments - Revenue estimates for 2025 have been reduced by 2-3%, and non-IFRS net profit estimates have been cut by 6% for 2025-26 due to wider losses in new initiatives and increased depreciation from capital expenditures [5][26]. - The adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to improve to 14.3% in 2025, with total revenues projected at Rmb397.4 billion for 2025 [27]. Market Position and Valuation - The price target remains at HK$200, implying a target P/E of 19x for 2026 estimates, which is a premium compared to competitors like Tencent and Alibaba [30]. - The report indicates that Meituan's market capitalization is currently US$134.2 billion, with an average daily trading value of US$726 million [7]. Growth Drivers - The food delivery volume trajectory is showing better-than-expected performance amid a challenging macro environment, with Instashopping gaining market share [42]. - The report emphasizes the potential for improved profitability through effective investment strategies in new initiatives and enhanced merchant monetization [52].