摩根士丹利：上调中国GDP预期至5%，任受关税影响和被动的政策措施制约

We raise our 2025 GDP forecast by 50bps to 4.5% on a stronger-than-expected starting point and solid capex momentum, aligning with consensus. That said, we still expect growth to soften from 2Q onwards amid tariff impact and reactive policy measures, and remain below consensus on nominal GDP. Debate on whether growth recovery can sustain and broaden out has been on the rise. Indeed, stimulus measures on local governments and consumption have started to filter through, leading to green shoots. We think a fur ...