Ping An Securities·2025-03-25 08:03Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][43] Core Viewpoints - Spring sugar feedback is stable, and distributor profits are improving. Major liquor companies are increasing supply-side control, leading to a reduction in channel inventory. The prices of major products remain stable, and profits for distributors have improved compared to before the festival. Future demand is expected to recover with the implementation of consumer policies [6][8] - The food index has seen a decline, but the snack and catering sectors are expected to present investment opportunities. The snack industry continues to benefit from channel and product advantages, while the catering industry is stabilizing and may see slight recovery [6][11] Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The liquor index has a cumulative decline of -4.06%. Major stocks with the largest declines include Jiuziyuan (-7.49%) and Luzhou Laojiao (-9.00%). The feedback from the spring sugar festival indicates stable sales and improved distributor profits [6][8] - Recommended investment lines include high-end liquor with strong demand, mid-range liquor with ongoing national expansion, and real estate liquor positioned in expanding price ranges [6][8] Food Industry - The food index has a cumulative decline of -3.31%. The top gainers include ST Jiajia (+8.42%) and Baiyang Co. (+5.67%), while the largest decliners include Qianhe Flavor Industry (-8.99%) and Huanlejia (-9.09%) [6][15] - The snack industry is experiencing a surge in new products, and investment opportunities are recommended in companies like Three Squirrels and Yanjinpuzi. The catering industry is expected to stabilize, with potential recovery in related sectors such as beer and condiments [6][11] Key Company Insights - Guizhou Moutai expects a 15.44% year-on-year increase in total revenue for 2024, with a stable operating rhythm despite a weak macroeconomic environment [8][41] - Shanxi Fenjiu reported a revenue increase of 11.4% year-on-year for Q3 2024, with strong performance in mid-to-high-end liquor [8][41] - Anjiu Foods achieved a revenue of 110.77 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.84% [12][41] - Yanjin Beer reported a revenue of 128.46 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.47% [12][41]