海外宏观周报：美联储二季度能否降息？

Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25-4.50% as of March 20, 2025, aligning with market expectations[2] - The GDP growth forecast for 2025 was revised down to 1.7% from the previous 2.1%[2] - The probability of maintaining the interest rate at 425-450bp in May increased from 71.8% to 85.7% as of March 23, 2025[2] Market Reactions - Following Powell's remarks, the S&P 500 saw a rebound, with the Nasdaq rising by 1.41% on the day of the announcement[15] - Chinese assets experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng indices falling by 1.60% and 1.13%, respectively[15] - Gold prices increased by 1.20%, while Brent crude oil rose by 2.24% amid ongoing market instability[17] Inflation and Tariff Implications - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be temporary, with the inflation outlook for 2026 remaining unchanged[13] - The probability of a 25bp rate cut in June is estimated at 67.3%, contingent on the White House's stance on tariffs and upcoming economic data[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include market volatility exceeding expectations, marginal policy changes, and statistical errors[4]