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煤炭行业周报:煤价偏弱,静待需求恢复
Xiangcai Securities·2025-03-25 10:20

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [5] Core Views - The coal sector has shown a relative performance improvement, with a decline of 0.86% compared to a 2.29% drop in the CSI 300 index, indicating a 1.43 percentage point outperformance [7] - Domestic thermal coal prices are under pressure due to seasonal demand weakness, while overseas prices are recovering [8] - Coking coal prices are declining, but demand is gradually improving as downstream industries resume operations [9] - The report suggests that while thermal coal prices are weak, seasonal recovery in non-electric industries may offset some demand losses, leading to potential stabilization in coking coal prices [10] Summary by Sections Market Review - The coal sector's PE valuation is at 10.43 times, at the 51.96 percentile over the past decade, while the PB valuation is at 1.23 times, at the 30.59 percentile [7] Domestic and International Coal Prices - As of March 23, domestic thermal coal prices are at 680 RMB/ton, down 1.45% week-on-week, while international prices for Australian, European, and South African coal have seen slight increases [8] - Domestic coking coal prices are at 1150 RMB/ton, down 4.17% week-on-week, with international prices also declining [9] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading coal companies with high long-term contract ratios and stable operations, such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, as well as undervalued coking coal companies with improving operational conditions [10]