豆粕期货周报-2025-03-25

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Combining macro, fundamental, and technical aspects, the short - term trend of the 2505 contract of soybean meal may be range - bound [11][31]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Macro Analysis - US core inflation rebounded in January 2025, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.3%, 0.1 percentage points higher than the previous month and significantly higher than the market expectation of 3.1%, which triggered market fluctuations [4]. - Trump's erratic trade tariff policies have caused market panic and global economic instability [5]. - US trade tariffs and inflation affect economic instability [11][30]. Fundamental Analysis Cost End - China has imposed a 10% tariff on US soybeans, and US soybeans are in a weak position. South American weather has improved, with a stable expectation of a Brazilian soybean harvest and improved crop conditions in Argentina [6]. - In the March USDA supply - demand report, the 2024/25 US soybean production is 4.366 billion bushels, 4.9% higher than the previous year; crushing is 2.41 billion bushels, 5.4% higher; exports are 1.825 billion bushels, 7.7% higher; and the ending inventory is 380 million bushels, 11.1% higher than the previous year, reaching a five - year high. The global soybean supply and use forecast shows almost unchanged production, increased crushing volume, and decreased ending inventory [7]. - As of March 16, the harvest progress of Brazil's 2024/25 soybean was 69.8%. Brazil is about to enter the export peak, and the premium of Brazilian soybeans has started to rise. If the tariff war continues, it may continue to increase in the future [18]. - The net sales of 2024/25 US soybeans in the week of March 7 - 13 were only 350,000 tons, a 53% decrease from the previous week and a 29% decrease from the four - week average, lower than expected. If the tariff war continues, US soybean exports to China will slow down [14]. Domestic Supply End of Soybean Meal - In March, the arrival of soybeans was tight, the oil mill operating rate decreased, and the supply of soybean meal was tight. The arrival of soybeans in March was 5.124 million tons, a 17.85% month - on - month decrease and a 12.19% year - on - year decrease [19]. - In the 12th week (March 16 - 22), due to a shortage of soybeans, the production capacity of factories decreased. The total crushing volume of 136 domestic imported soybean processing oil mills was 1.3827 million tons, a decrease of 243,900 tons from the previous week. The output of soybean meal from 166 oil mills was 1.1206 million tons, a decrease of 191,900 tons from the previous week. The operating rate was 36.39%, a 6.23% decrease from the previous week [20]. Domestic Demand End of Soybean Meal - In the 12th week (March 16 - 22), the trading volume of soybean meal in oil mills showed a slight recovery, with an increase in far - month transactions. The weekly trading volume of domestic soybean meal was 706,300 tons, an increase of 334,700 tons from the previous week. The average trading price was 3,429.30 yuan/ton, a 3.64% decrease from the previous week. The spot trading volume was 91,000 tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons from the previous week, and the basis trading volume was 614,500 tons, an increase of 366,300 tons from the previous week. The weekly提货量 of domestic soybean meal was 691,600 tons, a decrease of 67,900 tons from the previous week [23]. Inventory - As of March 21, the inventory of imported soybeans at major ports was about 7.1207 million tons. From March 8 - 14, the total domestic imported soybean inventory was 3.641 million tons, a decrease of 591,000 tons from the previous week. The domestic soybean meal inventory from March 8 - 14 was 674,000 tons, a 14.83% increase from the previous week, and the contract volume was 2.522 million tons, a 15.22% decrease from the previous week. As of March 15 - 21, the current inventory days of feed enterprises were 8.63 days, and the overall physical inventory level of domestic feed enterprises this year is slightly higher than last year [25][27]. Technical Analysis - The soybean meal futures market showed a trend of first strengthening and then weakening, with a resistance and decline pattern. It is expected to seek support at 2,800 yuan [29].