安粮期货研究报告 安粮期货商品研究报告 玉米期货月报 安粮期货研究所 2026 年 2 月 投资咨询业务资格 皖证监函【2017】203 号 研究所 农产品小组 研究员: 潘兆敏 从业资格号：F3064781 投资咨询号：Z0022343 初审： 张莎： 从业资格号：F03088817 投资咨询号：Z0019577 复审： 赵肖肖：从业资格号：F0303938 投资咨询号：Z0022015 总部地址：安徽省合肥市包河区花园大道 986 号安粮中心 23-24 层 客服热线： 400—626—9988 网站地址：www.alqh.com 1 / 8 安粮期货研究报告 综述：购销趋于谨慎 售粮压力后移 核心观点： 年关临近，玉米市场正步入节前购销冲刺阶段。目前整体售粮进度已超过五成，但节前 集中售粮压力尚未完全释放。受华北地区粮源质量分化影响，东北粮源向华北地区的流通量 显著增加，导致东北产区售粮进度同比偏快，而华北产区则相对偏缓。随着节前售粮窗口期 持续收窄，预计节前市场整体供给压力可控。下游加工企业多已完成安全库存建设，采购策 略以按需为主，因此节前价格预计波动有限，将维持区间震荡格局。春节后，随着气温回升 ...

安粮期货商品研究报告 | | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 皖证监函【2017】203 | 号 | | | 研究所 农产品小组 | | | | 研究员：朱书颖 | | | | 从业资格号：F03120547 | | | 安粮期货研究所 | 投资咨询号：Z0022992 | | | 2026 年 2 月 3 日 | 初审： | | | | 张莎： 从业资格号：F03088817 | | | | 投资咨询号：Z0019577 | | | | 复审： | | | | 赵肖肖： 从业资格号：F0303938 | | | | | 投资咨询号：Z0022015 | 1 豆粕：价格中枢承压下移 核心观点：当前豆粕市场处于"强预期"与"弱现实"中博弈，外盘交易逻辑围绕美豆出口 表现和南美供应压力展开，短期南美天气扰动带来的价格升水使得盘面出现波动。中长期关 注中美贸易政策变化和生物柴油政策推行。但全球供应宽松主基调依旧压制全球大豆价格中 枢，价格上行空间有限。国内预计一季度供应偏紧，但随着新作南美大豆到港上市，供强需 弱格局依旧。当前下游因豆粕价格合适开始建仓远月合约，远月成交放量 ...

安粮期货研究报告 安粮期货商品研究报告 塑料期货月报 | 安粮期货 | | --- | 展望 2 月，国内聚乙烯市场受春节季节性主导，供应增量对冲去化利好，下游需求整体 走弱，供需矛盾加剧，库存与成本存不确定性，市场预计偏弱调整。 总部地址：安徽省合肥市包河区花园大道 986 号安粮中心 23-24 层 客服热线： 400—626—9988 网站地址：www.alqh.com 2/11 安粮期货研究报告 一、供应端：边际改善难改宽松预期 安粮期货 2026 年 2 月 投资咨询业务资格 皖证监函【2017】203 号 研究所农产品小组 研究员: 龚悦：从业资格号：F3023504 投资咨询号：Z0014055 助理研究员： 郑钰岷：从业资格号：F03146524 初审： 张莎：从业资格号：F03088817 投资咨询号：Z0019577 复审： 赵肖肖：从业资格号：F0303938 投资咨询号：Z0022015 总部地址：安徽省合肥市包河区花园大道 986 号安粮中心 23-24 层 客服热线： 400—626—9988 网站地址：www.alqh.com 1/11 安粮期货研究报告 综述：成本托底难抵淡季压 ...

综述：过剩局面难改，外部因素或有提振 核心观点： 安粮期货商品研究报告 纯碱期货月报（202602） | | 投资咨询业务资格 | | --- | --- | | | 皖证监函【2017】203 号 | | 安粮期货研究所 | 研究所 能源化工小组 | | 年 月 日 2026 2 3 | 联系人：李雨馨 | | | 从业资格号：F3023505 | | | 投资咨询号：Z0013987 | | | 初审： | | | 张莎： 从业资格号：F03088817 | | | 投资咨询号：Z0019577 | | | 复审： | | | 赵肖肖：从业资格号：F0303938 | 整体来看，1 月纯碱供应回升、需求弱稳、企业库存小幅累积，基本面压力 仍存。2 月来看，供应水平仍有提升空间，且随着春节临近、下游停工放假，纯 碱需求仍将萎缩。因此，纯碱供需宽松状态仍有加深预期，春节前企业库存压 力也将进一步提升。同时外部宏观情绪回暖、3 月初国内重要会议、期货市场煤 炭及黑色等品种走势都对纯碱期价存在联动效应。预计 2 月盘面仍将延续底部 区间波动，中期看过剩程度继续加深，若宏观及政策层面未出现超预期利好因 素支撑，则纯 ...

白银：非理性暴涨下的回撤 投资咨询业务资格 皖证监函【2017】203 号 研究所 农产品小组 研究员: 潘兆敏 从业资格号：F3064781 投资咨询号：Z0022343 初审： 张莎 从业资格号:F03088817 投资咨询证号:Z0019577 复审： 赵肖肖 从业资格号：F0303938 投资咨询号：Z0022015 安粮期货热点报告 引言： 贵金属市场在 2026 年 1 月 30 日至 2 月 2 日经历了罕见的剧烈调整，沪金、沪银期货价 格断崖式下跌，引发全市场高度关注。沪金主力合约自 1 月 30 日起连续下挫，截至 2 月 2 日收盘，累计跌幅达 15.22%，盘中最低触及 1000 元/克以下，创下近年来最大单日与连续 跌幅纪录，沪银主力合约 1 月 30 日夜盘暴跌 17.00%（跌停）至 24832 元/千克，2 月 2 日早 盘再度跌停，两日合计跌幅超 20%。贵金属上涨核心逻辑源于市场对全球风险资产不确定性 的定价，然而当前美元体系与地缘政治的脆弱性已远甚以往，导致快速累积的价格泡沫迅速 破裂。不过，在全球格局持续动荡的背景下，贵金属的需求逻辑正逐渐由"短期投机避险" 向"长期战略 ...

2026/01/27 宏观 宏观与地缘：中东地缘局势突发升级，波斯湾美军兵力投送加强、叙利亚油气控制权争夺 加剧，避险情绪升温；据美国财政部数据，美元指数回落至 99.8，美联储 2025 年完成三 次降息后，2026 年降息预期持续。世界黄金协会数据显示，2025 年全球央行净购金 1230 吨，中国央行连续 14 个月增持黄金，2025 年 12 月增持 3 万盎司。 市场分析：1 月 26 日亚盘期间现货黄金突破 5110 美元/盎司。金价的核心支撑为地缘避险 资金流入、央行持续购金及美元走弱，若中东局势进一步升级，金价或获更多资金面支 撑。短期压力来自金价突破 5000 美元/盎司历史新高后技术面超买，若美联储 1 月议息释 放鹰派信号，或对金价形成短期压制。 操作建议：建议重点关注中东地缘局势演变及美联储议息会议表态，以趋势跟踪为主，做 好仓位管控，避免追高操作。 白银 外盘价格:1 月 26 日亚盘期间，伦敦银现最高突破至 110 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银商业净空 持仓从 8 万手降至 5.5 万手。光伏等新能源领域用银需求 2025 年翻倍，全球矿产白银产量 较峰值下降 12%，全球白银 E ...

纯碱，切准 2026 年的脉搏 投资咨询业务资格 皖证监函【2017】203 号 研究所 化工小组 研究员: 潘兆敏 从业资格号：F3064781 投资咨询号：Z0022343 初审： 张莎 从业资格号:F03088817 投资咨询证号:Z0019577 复审： 赵肖肖 从业资格号：F0303938 投资咨询号：Z0022015 本文主题，复盘 2025 年纯碱走势和价格背后的内在逻辑，为切 准 2026 年纯碱脉搏提供理论依据和逻辑支撑。 第一部分：纯碱 2025 年走势回顾和内在逻辑分析 回顾 2025 年，纯碱市场整体呈现趋势性下行格局，全年主要经 历两波行情。第一阶段为年初至 6 月底，价格自【1400，1600】元/ 吨区间震荡回落至【1150，1200】元/吨附近。第二阶段始于 7 月初， 价格自 1150 元/吨低点展开反弹，高点触及 1450-1530 元/吨区间， 此后再度转入下行通道，并于 12 月跌破 1100 元/吨，创出年内新低。 全年走势可概括为"下跌—反弹—再下跌"的弱势循环。 其内在逻辑清晰：行情主线是供需过剩背景下价格的趋势性回归， 其中供应强、需求弱、库存高构成核心压力。阶 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - From a fundamental perspective, the lithium carbonate market in 2026 is expected to show a tight - balance pattern with strong supply and demand. The supply side will have a clear division in regions and resource types, with domestic growth led by salt - lake lithium extraction and overseas by ore - based lithium projects. The demand side will be driven by the booming energy - storage market and the rapid increase in the penetration rate of new - energy heavy trucks, along with the stable growth of new - energy vehicle production and sales [2]. - From a technical perspective, given the previous sharp rise and overall bullish market sentiment, the possibility of a rapid and reverse decline in lithium carbonate prices is low. The current price is close to the first important high after the rebound following the decline of lithium carbonate futures, and it may take time to break through this level [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Lithium Carbonate Trend Analysis: V - shaped Reversal - In 2025, the lithium carbonate market showed a typical V - shaped trend, divided into a unilateral decline from January to June due to weak industry fundamentals and external policy shocks, and an upward - trending period after late June driven by policies and events [5]. - From January to June, the market was in a state of structural oversupply, with downstream new - energy vehicle growth slowing and energy - storage demand under - performing. Social inventory reached 96,000 tons by the end of April, the highest since 2021. After April, the market accelerated its decline due to the US tariff policy, and prices dropped below the break - even point [6]. - After late June, the market rebounded. In July, the "anti - involution" policy boosted sentiment. From late July to September, supply - side events strengthened the expectation of supply contraction, and prices first rose and then fell. After the National Day, the booming energy - storage demand drove prices above 100,000 yuan/ton, and in early December, a new round of upward trend began [7]. Lithium Carbonate Supply Side Capacity and Production - In 2026, the global new lithium carbonate production capacity is expected to be about 30 - 330,000 tons LCE, with a clear division in regions and resource types. Domestic capacity growth will mainly come from salt - lake lithium extraction, while overseas growth will be mainly from ore - based lithium projects. The actual capacity release depends on the price of lithium carbonate [9]. - In 2025, domestic lithium carbonate production increased strongly, with a cumulative output of 871,200 tons from January to November, a year - on - year increase of 44%. The growth was mainly driven by spodumene - based lithium extraction. In 2026, the domestic supply structure is expected to be further optimized, with salt - lake lithium extraction as the key incremental source, but the actual supply release still faces uncertainties [11][12]. Import - At the end of 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports remained stable, with an annual total of about 2.5 million tons. Imports from Argentina increased by 56%, while those from Chile decreased by 17%. In 2026, the import pattern is expected to shift from South - American dominance to diversified supply, with the total import volume expected to be between 2 - 2.5 million tons, but the growth rate may slow [14]. Inventory - Since August 2025, domestic lithium carbonate inventory has been continuously decreasing. In 2026, the market is expected to show a pattern of "both supply and demand increasing, with a tight balance", and the inventory center is expected to move down further and may show seasonal fluctuations [16]. Demand Side Energy Storage - From January to October 2025, the domestic energy - storage winning - bid capacity reached 148GWh, a year - on - year increase of 39%. In 2026, the energy - storage cell shipment is expected to reach 850GWh, and the annual demand for lithium carbonate in this field is expected to increase by more than 162,000 tons LCE. The global energy - storage demand is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 30% - 40% in 2026, with China contributing more than 40% [19]. New - energy Vehicles - From January to October 2025, China's new - energy vehicle market grew strongly, with production and sales increasing by more than 30% year - on - year, accounting for 46.7% of the total new - vehicle sales. Exports reached 2.65 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 54%. In 2026, new - energy vehicle production and sales are expected to continue to grow, driving up the demand for lithium carbonate [22][23]. New - energy Heavy Trucks - In 2025, the new - energy heavy - truck market in China grew strongly, with cumulative sales of 1.0423 million vehicles in the first 11 months, a year - on - year increase of 27%. In 2026, the market is expected to enter a stable development stage at a high level, and the penetration rate of new - energy heavy trucks is expected to exceed 30%, even reaching 35% - 40%, which will support the demand for lithium carbonate [24]. Cost Side - As of December 29, the forward spot price of Australian spodumene (5.5% - 6%) was $1680/ton, and the price of lithium - mica concentrate (2% - 2.5%) was 1850 yuan/ton, with monthly increases of over 45%. The weighted cost of lithium carbonate is about 82,000 yuan/ton, which further strengthens the bottom support [28][29]. Summary - The environmental rectification and shutdown of Jiangxi's mica mines in 2025 was the key turning point for the lithium carbonate market from oversupply to tight balance. In 2026, the core contradiction in domestic supply lies in the resumption rhythm and intensity of lithium - mica mines in Jiangxi. Meanwhile, the explosive growth of energy - storage demand requires close tracking of policy implementation and actual demand fulfillment [3][30]. - Historically, the probability of price increases in the second half of the year is higher than in the first half. However, the market may show two scenarios in 2026, especially in the first half: either range - bound at the current high level or form a double - top pattern and then enter an adjustment phase. The depth and timing of subsequent corrections depend on the resumption progress of leading manufacturers and the actual fulfillment of energy - storage demand [3][30].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025/26, the global soybean supply remains in a loose pattern, with a slight decline in production and inventory. The trade pattern has changed, and the biodiesel policy is a key demand variable. In China, the supply pattern is supported by South American new - crop yields, and there may be a short - term supply tightening. The domestic pig industry is at the bottom of the cycle, and the price of soybean meal is in a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation" [2][3][4] - In 2026, the overall situation of soybean supply is expected to remain loose, but the weather in South American producing areas and the final output will be key variables. The pig price is expected to rebound in the second half of the year, which may boost the feed price. The price of soybean meal may show different trends in different quarters [37][38] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Annual Review of Soybean Meal - In 2025, the global soybean supply was in a loose cycle, which pressured the CBOT futures. Biodiesel policies supported the price floor. The Sino - US trade game dominated price fluctuations. The price of US soybeans fluctuated in the bottom range of 970 - 1080 cents per bushel. The domestic soybean meal also fluctuated in the bottom range, and the annual fluctuation range was 2800 - 3100 yuan per ton [6] 2. Global Supply and Demand (1) Global Supply - In 2025/26, the global soybean production remained at a high level but decreased by 461 million tons (a decrease of 1.07%) compared with 2024/25. The end - of - period inventory decreased slightly, and the stock - to - use ratio decreased slightly. The future may enter a de - stocking cycle [8] - For the US, the USDA in November lowered the 2025/26 US soybean production by 329.6 million tons (a decrease of 2.76%) compared with the same period last year, mainly due to a 7.1% decrease in the planting area. The future planting area may change depending on the Sino - US trade relationship and the soybean/corn price ratio [9] - In South America, Brazil's production growth rate slowed down. Factors such as rising production costs and geopolitical uncertainties restricted farmers' expansion willingness. Different institutions had different forecasts for Brazil's 2025/26 production, but it was generally at a high level. The rainfall and temperature at the end of the year and the beginning of next year were the key variables for the final output. Argentina's 2025/26 production was expected to decline by 5.10% due to a reduction in the planting area and the impact of La Nina [10][12][13] (2) Global Consumption - In 2025/26, the global soybean export consumption remained stable, and the growth rate of crushing consumption slowed down. The Sino - US trade friction changed the trade pattern, and the biodiesel policy affected the construction of the phased bottom of the soybean price [19] - For US soybeans, the export was difficult. The Sino - US trade relationship affected the export volume. The implementation of the biodiesel policy was postponed, but the future blending target was set at a high level, which would drive the demand [20][21] - In South America, Brazil's soybean export was strong in 2025, but over - concentration of exports made it vulnerable. Argentina expanded its export channels through policy incentives and began to export soybean meal to China. If the export to China becomes normalized, the global supply chain pattern may change [22][23] 3. Domestic Supply and Demand (1) South American New - Crop Yields Support the Domestic Supply Pattern, with Possible Short - Term Supply Tightening - In 2025, China's soybean import pattern changed due to the Sino - US trade game. From January to November, the cumulative import of soybeans increased by 6.88% year - on - year, with Brazilian soybeans accounting for 73.88%. The recent raw material supply may be less than expected due to factors such as shipping efficiency and quarantine procedures. The supply pattern in 2026 depends on whether the South American harvest is good [24][26][27] (2) Diversified Imports Expand, and Argentine Soybean Meal Imports May Open New Channels - In 2025, China took the initiative in the Sino - US soybean trade game and actively expanded import channels. The "dual - source supply structure" of "mainly Brazil and supplemented by Argentina" was formed, which increased China's bargaining power. If soybean meal imports become normalized, the domestic pricing logic and trade model may change [29] (3) Terminal Livestock Supply is Expected to Tighten, and Prices are Expected to Enter a New Cycle - In 2025, the pig inventory remained high, the supply - demand contradiction intensified, and the pig price fluctuated at the bottom. In 2026, the supply pressure will be gradually released in the first half of the year, and the pig price is expected to rebound in the second half of the year, which will boost the feed price [31][33] 4. Outlook for the 2026 Soybean Meal Market - In 2026, the US interest rate may decline, and the weakening of the US dollar will help US agricultural product exports. Globally, the supply is expected to remain loose, but the final output in South America is the key factor. Domestically, if the South American output does not change much, the supply pattern of soybean meal may remain loose. The livestock industry may have a turning point in the second half of the year [37] - The weather and output in South American producing areas are key variables for the cost side. In the first quarter of next year, the price is sensitive to positive factors. In the second and third quarters, the supply pressure is the greatest. In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern may change, and the price and basis may recover from the low level [38]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the economy will continue to maintain a mild recovery trend. With the strengthening of counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments of macro policies, the overall market confidence will be boosted. The steel price will be jointly driven by the domestic macro - friendly market and the marginal improvement of fundamentals, showing a relatively strong oscillation. The annual steel price may first decline and then rise in an "N" shape, with the price fluctuating in the range of [2800, 3800] and the core critical point around 3200. The overall annual strategy is to buy on dips during peak seasons and policy windows [2][33]. Summary of Each Section 2025 Steel Market Review - The 2025 steel market was volatile, with the price center gradually declining. It showed an inverted "N" shape due to the alternation of strong policy stimulus and weak fundamentals. The rebar futures price went through three stages: a first - round decline from January to early June, a retaliatory rebound from June to July, and an oscillatory bottom - grinding from late August to December [4]. - In the first stage (January - early June 2025), weak fundamentals led to a unilateral decline. Slow post - holiday construction site resumption, poor funds, a deep - adjusted real - estate market, and US tariff increases hit the market, causing a 14.7% drop in the rebar futures index and a nearly 500 - point decline in the weighted index [7]. - In the second stage (June - July 2025), the "anti - involution" policy and coal production restrictions drove a 15.4% increase in the rebar futures index and a nearly 450 - point rise in the weighted index [8]. - In the third stage (late August - December 2025), the rebar futures index oscillated in the range of [3000, 3300] due to weak peak - season demand, policy fulfillment, and weak cost support [10]. Macro Analysis Macro Data Analysis - In December 2025, China's official manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points month - on - month, returning to the expansion range. The production index was 51.7%, the new order index was 50.8%, and the new export order index was 49%. The raw material purchase price index was 53.1%, and the ex - factory price index was 48.9% [12]. Central Economic Work Conference Direction Guidance - The 2026 economic work continues the "seeking progress while maintaining stability" principle but emphasizes "improving quality and efficiency". Fiscal and monetary policies are more refined and practical, focusing on expanding domestic demand, optimizing supply, and promoting economic growth through innovation and reform [15][16]. Fundamental Analysis Steel Supply - Side Analysis - Cost and profit: In 2025, the overall profitability of steel mills was better than in 2024, with an average annual profit of about 100 yuan/ton. The profit growth mainly came from raw material price drops. In 2026, the profit pressure may increase [19]. - Production: In 2026, steel supply is expected to run smoothly. By mid - December 2025, the iron - water output of 247 steel mills increased by 3.17% year - on - year, and the scrap steel daily consumption of 255 steel mills increased by 8.2% year - on - year. It is estimated that the total domestic crude steel demand in 2026 will decline by 0.13% year - on - year, and the crude steel and iron - water production will be basically the same as in 2025, at 102044.04 million tons and 87873.71 million tons respectively [22][23]. Steel Demand - Side Analysis - Real estate: Since 2025, the real - estate market has introduced favorable policies, but the data shows a decline. From January to October, real - estate development investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, and new housing construction area decreased by 19.8% year - on - year [26]. - Infrastructure: In 2025, infrastructure investment growth declined. The growth rates of broad and narrow infrastructure investment dropped from 9% and 4.4% in 2024 to 1.5% and - 0.1% respectively from January to October. In 2026, steel supply is expected to exceed demand, which may suppress the market price [29][31].