一、市场矛盾焦点：供应"黑天鹅"与需求"双面刃" 1.供应端扰动：新发短缺危机与既有风险强化 新增扰动：直接导火索是澳大利亚铁矿石企业菲尼克斯资源有限公司公告称， 中东冲突和热带气旋"纳蕾勒"导致区域柴油供应趋紧，已开始影响矿业生产运 营。澳大利亚采矿业柴油消耗占全国 35%，但截至 2026 年 3 月柴油库存仅可维 持 15~30 天，是国际能源署成员国中最低水平之一。2025 年澳洲碳酸锂产量占 全球总供给的 31%，这意味着全球约 30%的锂矿供给面临柴油短缺带来的减产风 险，且锂矿在产值排序中低于煤炭、铁矿石等，并非优先保供目标，因此减产 风险更为突出。 此外，津巴布韦锂精矿出口禁令事态持续升级，自 2 月底该国宣布无限期暂 停所有原矿及锂精矿出口以来，虽然中资企业积极推动恢复出口，但审批权已由 矿业部上移至国会及内阁，导致流程延缓，预计最早 4 月中旬才能启动出口，矿 石运抵国内时间可能推迟至 6 月。国内方面，江西宜春锂矿复产进度同样不及预 期，宁德时代枧下窝锂矿虽已制定监测方案并展开监测，但目前整体进展仅完成 20%左右，后续还需经历编制报告、审核及第三方专家修改意见等流程，最快复 产节点可能 ...

高库存下的铜价新驱动 投资咨询业务资格 皖证监函【2017】203 号 作者: 姜祉寅 从业资格号：F03135987 投资咨询号：Z0021932 初审： 张莎 从业资格号:F03088817 投资咨询证号:Z0019577 复审： 赵肖肖 从业资格号：F0303938 投资咨询号：Z0022015 一．市场回顾 2026 年沪铜合约加权价格保持高位震荡，在 1 月 30 日创下历史新高后呈现 逐步回落。铜在供应较弱，预期较强的基本面下，即使累库，但总体呈现较强态 势，下跌空间有限。符合之前文章预期（参见：《新旧动能转换下的铜价新周期》， 2025/12/26）。 图：上期所铜期货加权走势图 资料来源：钢联、安粮期货研究所 二．行情分析与展望 进入 3 月，宏观方面，美伊爆发冲突，且战事目前逐渐升级。双方态度强硬， 称已经做好长期战争准备。3 月 6 日，美国劳工部公布 2 月非农数据，大幅低于 预期。市场普遍认为，短期内美联储将继续观望，首次降息的预期已推迟至年中 甚至更晚。基本面来看，相对于年初并未发生较大变动。矿端新增项目有限，原 材料端供应持续收紧；冶炼端受 TC 持续走弱的影响，炼厂利润进一步受到 ...

研究员: 潘兆敏 从业资格号：F3064781 投资咨询号：Z0022343 初审： 张莎 从业资格号:F03088817 投资咨询证号:Z0019577 复审： 赵肖肖 从业资格号：F0303938 投资咨询号：Z0022015 生猪又见新低，机会在哪儿？ 投资咨询业务资格 皖证监函【2017】203 号 研究所 安粮期货热点报告 截至 3 月 23 日，生猪近月价格已下探至万元/吨关口以下。面对这一价格低位，市场普 遍关心：是否到了布局的时机？本文便就此问题展开分析，以期为读者提供参考。 图：生猪主力合约价格 数据来源：文华财经，安粮期货研究所 一．中长期低位布局时机尚未显现 （一）猪周期：本轮周期将成为最长周期 猪周期这个名词在生猪上市以来，一直被市场提起，根据已有数据，自 2006 年 7 月以 来，我国生猪价格经历了 4 个完整的周期，每个轮回因生猪的养殖特性及流程时间而大致为 3-4 年。从价格上涨相对幅度来看，上升时间较长的 1 和 4 周期都为强周期，且背后都伴随 着某些产能供给端的冲击因素，比如非洲猪瘟。而目前正处于第 5 轮猪周期的下行周期当中， 市场阶段性所困惑或者纠结的点就在于这轮漫长 ...

焦煤 2605 强势破局，多重逻辑共振点燃多头行情 投资咨询业务资格 安粮期货热点报告 2026 年 3 月 23 日，焦煤 2605 主力合约盘中大幅冲高，一度触及涨停价位 1289.5 元/吨，单日涨幅逼近 11%，成交量、持仓量同步暴增，成为市场瞩目的 焦点。此次焦煤 2605 的大涨并非单一因素推动，而是地缘冲突引爆情绪、供需 基本面持续偏紧、资金面逼空助推、宏观预期向好四大核心因素共振的结果，彻 底扭转了前期市场的弱势格局，引发黑色系产业链的连锁反应。 图：焦煤 2605 盘面图 图：同花顺，安粮期货研究所 皖证监函【2017】203 号 研究所 初审： 张莎 从业资格号:F03088817 投资咨询证号:Z0019577 复审： 赵肖肖 从业资格号：F0303938 投资咨询号：Z0022015 一、地缘冲突突发：能源供应担忧引爆市场情绪，煤炭替代逻辑凸显 （1）卡塔尔 LNG 设施遇袭+霍尔木兹海峡紧张：全球 LNG 供应担忧升温， 亚洲多国紧急转向煤炭保电，全球抢煤预期拉满。 中东地缘局势急剧升级，成为此次焦煤 2605 大涨的直接导火索，彻底点燃 了市场的避险情绪与能源供应紧张预期。近期卡塔 ...

伊以互炸油气设施，对商品的核心影响盘点 投资咨询业务资格 皖证监函【2017】203 号 研究所 研究员: 李雨馨 从业资格号：F3023505 投资咨询号：Z0013987 初审： 张莎 从业资格号:F03088817 投资咨询证号:Z0019577 复审： 赵肖肖 从业资格号：F0303938 投资咨询号：Z0022015 安粮期货热点报告 事件追踪 随着伊朗高官在美以的轰炸下逐一丧生，伊朗革命卫队的最后克制彷佛也逐步打开封印。 3 月 18 日，新一轮伊以美互炸开始了，伊朗媒体对外宣称，伊朗革命卫队向海湾地区多家 能源设施发布撤离警告，声明中涉及的油气设施包括：沙特萨姆雷夫炼油厂、朱拜勒石化综 合体；阿联酋哈桑天然气田；卡塔尔梅塞义德石化综合体及其控股公司、拉斯拉凡炼油厂等 均纳入其打击目标。而以色列再一次先发制人，轰炸了伊朗布什尔省南帕尔斯和阿萨路耶部 分石油化工设施。这一事件标志着近期市场能化板块上涨的关键因素从聚焦霍尔木兹海峡的 通畅与否，转变到了美以伊战争是否扩散至整个中东，以及位于中东的油气资源和设施是否 将遭受毁灭性打击，从而减产甚至停产导致油气供应从"堵"变成了"缺"。 本文将盘点化工品类 ...

2026/03/18 宏观 原油 宏观与地缘：美以伊战争仍在持续，且短期看没有谈判降温的可能，因此，霍尔木兹海峡 封锁事件由突发黑天鹅逐步转成灰犀牛，原油价格或难以迅速降温，保持高位运行。美国 总统呼吁盟国联合护航，打通霍尔木兹海峡，但回应者寥寥，短期看通航难度较大。中东 产油国因该事件导致的减产、霍尔木兹海峡封锁后改道增加的运输成本都将赋予原油较为 确定的溢价。能化板块已经从第一阶段情绪宣泄，第二阶段供应冲击，进入了第三阶段— —现实检验期。若持续的封锁导致情况恶化，则后续还应关注多米诺骨牌效应，即造成金 融危机和整体的市场衰退。 市场分析：IEA 预测原油供给量 3 月将下降 800 万桶/日，若霍尔木兹海峡仍持续封锁，供 给量后续或将持续下降。根据该供给量下降的测算，目前原油已经从过剩迅速转变为短 缺，缺口量达到 1000-2000 万桶/日，占到动态平衡总量的 10%。目前日本、韩国已经开始 释放石油战略储备，美国即将在未来 120 天释放 1.72 亿桶战略储备油，IEA 也将释放 4 亿 多桶战略储备油。经过测算，若霍尔木兹海峡零通行，则上述释放储备油能弥补一个月的 原油出口缺口。同时，若原油因供 ...

美伊局势对后续大宗商品走势影响几何？ 投资咨询业务资格 皖证监函【2017】203 号 研究所 化工小组 研究员: 郑丽萍 从业资格号：F03100199 投资咨询号：Z0021130 初审： 张莎 从业资格号:F03088817 投资咨询证号:Z0019577 复审： 赵肖肖 从业资格号：F0303938 投资咨询号：Z0022015 美伊局势对后续大宗商品走势影响几何？ 一、近期美伊地缘冲突时间线 此前受美国和以色列对伊朗发起军事行动的影响，霍尔木兹海峡 的航运风险引发油价剧烈震荡，为了抑制油价过快上涨，同时缓解国 内的通胀压力，美国政府在政策层面密集表态，油价一度上演了过山 车行情，目前油价重拾涨势，带动能化板块大幅走强。不过目前地缘 冲突不确定性仍较高，全球市场在观望中等待中东局势后续动向。 | 日期 | 关键事件 | 大宗商品市场表现 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 美以对伊朗发动联合军事打击， | 原油、黄金跳涨。市场对供应中断的恐 | | 2.28 | 伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊及多名 | 慌情绪开始积聚。 | | （冲突爆发） | 高官身亡；伊朗关闭霍尔木兹海 | | | | 峡 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core View - The initial price increase of some chemicals was driven by the premium effect of geopolitical tensions, but as the market evolved, the strength of the fundamentals of each variety has become the decisive factor for the price increase. The market shows obvious differentiation characteristics. The price increase of the varieties with tight supply - demand patterns is relatively smooth, while the increase of those with weak supply - demand patterns is weak. At present, a defensive strategy should be adopted, and it is necessary to focus on the performance of varieties with tight and loose supply - demand patterns in the future [23][24][25] Summary by Directory 1. Changes in the Price Transmission Path of Chemical Products (1) Geopolitical Premium Driving Chemical Prices Up in the Early Stage - Last week, the market rise was mainly driven by the geopolitical event of the US - Iran conflict, which strengthened the market's expectation of a contraction in crude oil supply. This week, the price quickly corrected due to the cooling of market sentiment, profit - taking by some long - positions, and the exchange's increase in margin requirements [4] - The impact of price fluctuations shows obvious echelon differentiation. The first echelon includes crude oil, methanol, and LPG; the second echelon includes ethylene, propylene, polyethylene, and polypropylene; the third echelon includes PX, pure benzene, styrene, and ethylene glycol; the fourth echelon has relatively weak price linkage [5] (2) Later Gradually Turning to the Promotion of the Own Fundamental - The market driving logic is extending from simple cost transmission to supply - chain transmission, and the weight of fundamentals is gradually increasing. The first - echelon varieties are directly affected by supply shocks; the second - echelon ones are driven by both cost and supply; the third - echelon ones are demand - driven [11] 2. Analysis of Some Chemical Products (1) PX/PTA - The core logic of PX price increase has changed from cost increase to "real supply shock". The PX supply shock has become a reality, and the market's pricing of near - term supply tightness has been strengthened. PTA shows a game between "cost - driven" and "weak fundamentals". PX is the strongest link in the industrial chain, while PTA's rise depends more on cost promotion [14][15] (2) Pure Benzene/Styrene - Short - term geopolitical events have reconstructed the cost bottom line of the pure - benzene and styrene industrial chains. Styrene performs relatively strongly due to its better inventory structure. The supply of pure benzene in the Asian market is expected to be tight, and its future trend will be mainly affected by external factors. Styrene has strong future demand expectations, but there are also risks [17][18] (3) Methanol - The driving factor of methanol comes from the Middle East geopolitical situation, which directly affects supply expectations. The inventory has decreased, but in the long - term, the supply is expected to be loose once the geopolitical risk eases [19] (4) Plastics (PP, PE, PVC) - The three plastics show a differentiated market. PP is a cost - driven increase but has a "market without transactions" risk. PE is in a dilemma between cost and supply - demand. PVC is the weakest, and its price center may move down [20] 3. Overall Strategy for the Chemical Sector - At present, a defensive strategy should be adopted, and it is advisable to wait and see. In the next observation period, focus on the follow - up performance of varieties with tight and loose supply - demand patterns [25]

原油破百、海峡封锁，油脂油料的短期涨势能持 续多久？ 研究所 朱书颖 投资咨询业务资格 皖证监函【2017】203 号 研究所 农产品小组 研究员: 朱书颖 从业资格号：F03120547 投资咨询号：Z0022992 初审： 张莎 从业资格号:F03088817 投资咨询证号:Z0019577 复审： 赵肖肖 从业资格号：F0303938 投资咨询号：Z0022015 一、中东地缘冲突爆发，原油重要运输通道关闭 中东局势愈演愈烈，在伊朗宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡之后，原油价格大幅拉升，核心原因 是霍尔木兹海峡是沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、科威特、卡塔尔、伊拉克和伊朗石油出口的主要 通道。据财联社报道，目前海峡附近油轮大范围降速乃至停航等待，多国政府对本国船舶发 布紧急安全指令，部分国际油企与大宗商品贸易商也被曝已暂停经由该通道的原油与燃料运 输。 根据国际能源署统计，全球近 20%的海运石油贸易需要经过霍尔木兹海峡，每日约有 2000 万桶石油的运输量，其中 70%运往亚洲。该航线的替代路线极为有限，任何运输中断都 将世界石油市场造成重大影响。根据高盛相关报告显示，2025 年经由该海峡出口的原油平 均达 1340 万桶 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In 2026, glass has the supply - demand foundation to emerge from the industry trough and return to the normal price range. If there are positive policy benefits and demand improvement, the glass market may exceed market expectations [2]. - The reduction in glass consumption demand from the real - estate end due to the decrease in completion area is being replaced by consumption increments in other directions, and these increments are growing rapidly [6]. - In 2026, the supply of flat glass has significantly decreased and is expected to continue to decline, which is an important factor for a major change in the glass market [7]. - Although the current spot and futures prices of flat glass are still at the bottom, with positive changes in supply - side and consumption - side data, glass has some conditions to emerge from the trough [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Demand - side Analysis - The market generally believes that the demand for glass is weak, mainly due to the decline in real - estate new construction and completion areas since 2020. For example, in 2025, the real - estate completion area decreased by 18.1% compared to 2024 [2][3]. - However, the supply of flat glass does not directly correspond to the real - estate completion area. The consumption reduction in the real - estate end is being replaced by consumption increments in other directions, such as increased glass use per unit area in commercial and residential properties, home - improvement glass, agricultural glass greenhouses, and rural self - built houses [6]. 3.2 Supply - side Analysis - **Supply Reduction Factors** - The daily melting volume of float glass has significantly decreased. For example, in 2026, the daily melting volume of float glass decreased by 5.5% year - on - year [8]. - The supply of common white glass in the float glass category has decreased as many glass production lines have been adjusted to produce ultra - white glass or colored glass due to long - term low prices and losses [10]. - **Uncertain Supply Factors** - **Environmental Protection**: Due to environmental protection requirements such as "coal - to - gas" and "petroleum coke - to - gas" conversions, the supply of flat glass from coal - gas and petroleum coke sources will inevitably decrease in 2026, but the specific time and daily melting volume reduction are uncertain [11][12]. - **Financial Issues**: Since May 2024, domestic natural - gas - based float common white flat glass has been in a state of overall loss. High - cost and financially - pressured glass enterprises may be forced to shut down, and this situation may become more severe in 2026 [12][14]. 3.3 Current Price Restrictive Factors - The supply is still relatively strong or the supply - demand is weak, and the supply - side data has not significantly fallen below the supply - demand balance point (the market generally expects the balance point to be a daily melting volume of 14.5 tons) [15]. - There are uncertainties in the supply - side data, with both production line cold - repair or shutdown expectations and cold - repaired production line ignition and resumption expectations [15]. - The inventory is relatively high, especially during the winter and around the Spring Festival, which is the peak inventory - accumulation period [15]. - The consumption recovery is not obvious, and it is difficult to feel the improvement in the short term due to the seasonality of glass consumption [15]. - The market has a negative view of glass, and the short - selling power is strong [15]. 3.4 Conditions for a Major Market in 2026 - The current low glass price and strong short - selling power provide necessary conditions for a major market [15]. - Domestic glass consumption is resilient, and glass demand is expected to stop declining or have a mild rebound in 2026 [15]. - Due to environmental protection and financial issues, glass supply will gradually decrease over time [16]. 3.5 Data Requirements for a Major Market - **Supply - side**: The daily melting volume of float glass needs to be below 14.5 tons and remain at this level for a sufficient period. The lower the daily melting volume and the longer the duration, the greater the market space [16]. - **Inventory - side**: There needs to be a significant reduction in flat glass inventory. A key point is an inventory of 40 million weight boxes in the upstream. If the inventory is below this level and remains so for a certain period, it indicates that the supply and consumption can support a market [16]. 3.6 Probable Time for a Major Market - Unless there are strong policy surprises, capital pre - layout, or other unexpected factors, the probability of a major glass market in the second half of 2026 is higher as it takes time for clear data to emerge [17].