有色金属周报（工业硅、多晶硅）：工业硅跌势趋缓，多晶硅略有回调-2025-03-25

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The decline of industrial silicon has slowed down, while polysilicon has slightly corrected. The industrial silicon industry faces a situation of increasing supply and weak demand, with high inventory pressure. The short - term outlook for polysilicon is positive due to the demand from the rush - installation tide, but the price may be under pressure in the long run [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industrial Silicon 3.1.1 Price and Market Performance - The industrial silicon futures and spot prices are generally under pressure. For example, the industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 9,770 yuan/ton on March 21, 2024, down 1.86% from March 14. Some spot prices also showed a downward or stable trend [7]. 3.1.2 Cost Factors - In the southwest production area, due to the dry season, the electricity price is at a high level within the year, increasing the production cost of silicon enterprises. However, the prices of raw materials such as silica and silicon coal are weak, weakening the cost - side support [2]. - As of March 21, the carbon electrode average price was 8,100 yuan/ton, and the graphite electrode was 12,250 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous period. The weak demand from downstream silicon plants and the decline in costs made it difficult to raise electrode prices [35]. 3.1.3 Supply - Xinjiang's large - scale factories are continuously resuming production, and some silicon furnaces in Sichuan have started trial operation. The overall number of operating furnaces has increased, and the supply of industrial silicon maintains an increasing trend. In the week of March 20, the operating rate of silicon enterprises increased, and the weekly operating furnace rate of the industry was 31.66% [2][42][43]. 3.1.4 Demand - Downstream industries have a strong wait - and - see attitude, and the market transactions are light. Polysilicon factories maintain a large - scale production reduction situation, and the demand for industrial silicon is weak. Organic silicon enterprises mostly reduce production, and the procurement of industrial silicon has decreased. The aluminum - silicon alloy's start - up is stable, and the procurement price of industrial silicon is low [2]. 3.1.5 Inventory - The social inventory of industrial silicon remains at a high level, and the short - term de - stocking pressure is large. As of March 21, the total industrial silicon social inventory (social inventory + delivery warehouse) was 591,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous period [2][123]. 3.2 Polysilicon 3.2.1 Production - The polysilicon industry maintains a production reduction situation. In February, the polysilicon output was 90,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.56% and a year - on - year decrease of 44.72% [72]. 3.2.2 Demand - The terminal rush - installation drives the photovoltaic industry to develop steadily. Considering the impact of the rush - installation tide, the industry has adjusted the production quotas for the second quarter. The silicon wafer quota has been adjusted to about 190GW, and the battery cell quota to about 180GW. The silicon wafer production from April to May is expected to increase, which may drive the demand for upstream silicon materials [2]. 3.2.3 Price - The polysilicon price is relatively stable. As of March 21, the average price of N - type polysilicon was 40 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged from the previous period. The prices of re - feeding materials, dense materials, and cauliflower materials also remained unchanged [7]. 3.2.4 Inventory - As of March 23, the total polysilicon inventory was 253,000 tons, a decrease from the previous period [72]. 3.3 Organic Silicon 3.3.1 Supply - Most organic silicon manufacturers maintain reduced production, resulting in a tight supply situation. In February, the Chinese DMC start - up rate was 67.63%, a month - on - month decrease of 7.18 percentage points, and the DMC output was 199,500 tons, a month - on - month decline [96]. 3.3.2 Price - The organic silicon price is firm, but the increase has slowed down. As of March 21, the average price of DMC was 14,600 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.55%; the average price of 107 glue was 14,750 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.43%; and the average price of silicone oil was 16,150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.19% [102]. 3.4 Aluminum - Silicon Alloy 3.4.1 Production - The start - up of the aluminum - silicon alloy industry is stable. In the week of March 20, the start - up rate of primary aluminum - silicon alloy was 55.8%, and the start - up rate of recycled aluminum - silicon alloy was 56.5%, both remaining unchanged from the previous period [108]. 3.4.2 Price - The price of aluminum - silicon alloy has declined. As of March 21, the average price of ADC12 was 21,200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47%; the average price of A356 was 21,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47% [111].