| | | | | 尿素早评20250919: 做多机会或逐步到来 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 变化值 9月17日 单位 9月18日 | | | | | 変化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | UR01 | 元/吨 | 1670.00 | 1681.00 | -11.00 | -0.65% | | 尿素期货价格 | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1725.00 | 1734.00 | -9.00 | -0.52% | | | (收盘价) | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1745.00 | 1755.00 | -10.00 | -0.57% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 1640.00 | 1650.00 | -10.00 | -0.61% | | 期现价格 | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1520.00 | 1530.00 | -10.00 | -0.65% | | 国内现货价格 | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1650.00 | 1660.00 | -10. ...

| 变重名称 | | 2025-09-17 2025-09-10 2025-09-18 | | | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜朗货活跃合约 | 收盘价 | 79620 80560 | | 79790 | -940.00 | | | 成交量(手) | | 90514 | 70112 | 88158 | 20. 402. 00 | | | 持仓量(手) | | 127860 | 147464 | 171912 | -19, 604. 00 | | | 库存(吨) | | 32469 | 33291 | 19126 | -822.00 | | | 沪铜县寿 | | 370 40 | | -45 | 330. 00 | | | SMM 1#电解铜一半均价 | | 06662 | 80600 | 79745 | -610.00 | | | SMM平水铜开贴水一平均价 | | 30 30 | | 20 | 0. 00 | | | SMM升水铜开贴水-平均价 | | 115 120 | | 100 | -5.00 | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View - The Fed's dot - plot in September shows 2 rate cuts by the end of 2025 and only 1 in 2026, while the market expects 5 rate cuts from Oct/Dec 2025 and Mar/Jun/Sep 2026, indicating the Fed's future rate - cut path is hawkish. Considering Trump's pressure, geopolitical risks like the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and global central banks' continuous gold purchases, precious metal prices may be weak first and then strong [1]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 824.53 yuan/gram, down 5.72 yuan from the previous day and 5.81 yuan from the previous week. The trading volume was 49,462, and the holding volume was 207,592 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 9,811 yuan/ten - gram, down 65 yuan from the previous day and 223 yuan from the previous week. The trading volume was 457,876, and the holding volume was 395,854 [1]. - **COMEX Gold**: The closing price was 3,678.20 dollars/ounce, down 2.20 dollars from the previous day and 16.40 dollars from the previous week. The trading volume was 176,290, and the holding volume was 388,882 [1]. - **COMEX Silver**: The closing price was 42.10 dollars/ounce, up 0.11 dollars from the previous day and 0.45 dollars from the previous week. The trading volume was 17,105, and the holding volume was 131,335 [1]. 3.2 Important Information - The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged and slowed down the pace of quantitative tightening. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, the largest drop in nearly four years [1]. - Overseas investors' holdings of US Treasuries reached a new high in July. Japan's holdings hit a new high in over a year, the UK increased its holdings by over $40 billion for two consecutive months, China's holdings were at a 16 - year low, and Canada's holdings decreased by $57.1 billion [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - Wait for the price to fall and then mainly layout long positions. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,400 - 3,500 and the resistance level around 3,750 - 3,840. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 800 - 810 and the resistance level around 840 - 850. For London silver, focus on the support level around 39 - 40 and the resistance level around 43 - 46. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 9,500 - 9,700 and the resistance level around 10,300 - 10,500 [1].

研究所 吴金恒（期货从业资格号F03100418 期货投资咨询号Z0021125),联系电话:010-82293229 数据来源:SMM WIND | 碳酸锂日评20250919:低位震荡 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-09-11 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-09-18 | 2025-09-17 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | 近月合约 | 收盘价 | -880.00 | 72620.00 | 73500.00 | 71020.00 | | | | >> | 70860.00 | 连一合约 | 收盘价 | 72880.00 | 73640.00 | -760.00 | 1 | 71000.00 | -860.00 | 连二合约 | 收盘价 | 72940.00 | 73800.00 | | 17 | 连三合约 | 收盘价 | 72940.00 | 73800.00 | 71300.00 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that PX will operate weakly, PTA will operate in a volatile manner, and PR will also operate in a volatile manner. The PX view is rated -1, while the PTA and PR views are rated 0 [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On September 18, 2025, the prices of WTI and Brent crude oil futures decreased by 0.75%. The spot price of naphtha in CFR Japan dropped by 1.56%, and the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade) in FOB Korea decreased by 0.67%. The spot price of para - xylene (PX) in CFR China Main Port fell by 1.10% [1]. - **PTA Price**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main - contract decreased by 0.98%, while the settlement price increased by 0.21%. The spot price of domestic PTA increased by 0.09%, and the CCFEI price index of domestic and foreign PTA also showed slight increases [1]. - **PX Price**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main - contract decreased by 1.30%, and the settlement price decreased by 0.27%. The domestic spot price of PX remained unchanged, and the PXN spread increased by 0.15%, while the PX - MX spread decreased by 2.92% [1]. - **PR Price**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main - contract decreased by 0.89%, and the settlement price increased by 0.38%. The market prices of polyester bottle - chips in the East and South China markets decreased [1]. - **Downstream Price**: The CCFEI price indices of most polyester products remained stable or decreased slightly, such as the price index of polyester bottle - chips decreased by 0.51% [2]. Operating Conditions - The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain decreased by 1.59%. The PTA factory load rate remained unchanged, the polyester factory load rate increased by 0.22%, the bottle - chip factory load rate remained unchanged, and the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms increased by 2.01% [1]. - The sales rate of polyester filament decreased by 1.61%, the sales rate of polyester staple fiber increased by 8.96%, and the sales rate of polyester chips decreased by 33.45% [1]. Device Information - The 1.2 - million - ton PTA device of Ningbo Taihua stopped operating on September 5 [2]. Important News and Market Analysis - **PX**: On September 17, due to Ukraine's harassment of Baltic ports, Russia's weekly crude oil exports plummeted, and the overall positive impact on the crude oil supply - demand situation was limited. The cost support for PX was insufficient. The domestic PX operating load was at a high level, and some device maintenance plans were postponed. The demand - side PTA factory maintenance expectations increased, and there was only one transaction heard during the day. The supply of PX increased, and although it was the peak season for downstream polyester, the new orders and load did not exceed expectations, and the PXN was expected to operate weakly [2]. - **PTA**: The fundamentals did not change significantly. The influence of the Fed's interest - rate cut was overdrawn, the crude oil market declined during the session, the sales of polyester filament were flat, and the PTA market increase was limited. The supply of PTA was expected to increase in the short term, and the new PTA device maintenance plans from October to November had limited impact on the current market [2]. - **PR**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets decreased. The prices of polyester raw materials PTA and bottle - chip futures first rose and then fell. The supply - side quotations were mostly stable, and some were lowered in the afternoon. The downstream terminals were cautious and the trading atmosphere was cold [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For nickel, on September 18, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated downward, with decreased trading volume and open interest, and LME nickel dropped 0.45%. The spot market had average trading volume, and the basis premium widened. Considering the supply - demand situation and inventory changes, with the Fed's interest rate cut implemented, the nickel fundamentals are weak and there is inventory pressure, so nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [1][2]. - For stainless steel, on September 18, the main stainless - steel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated downward, with increased trading volume and open interest; the spot market had weak trading volume, and the basis premium widened. Although the fundamentals are loose, the cost side provides support, so stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Nickel Market 3.1.1 Price and Trading Data - On September 18, the closing prices of nickel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) all decreased compared to the previous day, with declines ranging from 840 - 890 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel futures active contract was 81,612 hands (- 9,122), and the open interest was 55,044 hands (- 3,782). LME nickel prices also declined, with the 3 - month nickel official price at 15,280 dollars (- 27 dollars), and the closing price of the electronic trading session at 15,335 dollars [2]. - The price differences between different nickel futures contracts (near - month and far - month) and the basis (spot - futures) showed certain changes. For example, the basis of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price - Shanghai nickel active contract closing price was 830 yuan [2]. 3.1.2 Supply - Demand and Inventory - Supply: Nickel ore prices remained flat. Last week, the arrival of nickel ore at ports decreased, and port inventories increased. Nickel - iron plants' losses narrowed, with increased domestic production schedules in September and increased production in Indonesia, leading to nickel - iron inventory reduction. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in September, and export profits expanded [2]. - Demand: Ternary material production schedules decreased; stainless - steel plants' production increased; alloy and electroplating demand was stable [2]. - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories decreased, LME inventories decreased, social inventories increased, and bonded - area inventories decreased [2]. 3.1.3 Global Supply - Demand Situation - According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), in July 2025, global refined nickel production was 320,100 tons, consumption was 284,000 tons, with a supply surplus of 36,000 tons. From January to July, global refined nickel production was 2,237,600 tons, consumption was 1,993,400 tons, with a supply surplus of 244,300 tons. In July, global nickel ore production was 350,700 tons, and from January to July, it was 2,326,200 tons [2]. 3.2 Stainless - Steel Market 3.2.1 Price and Trading Data - On September 18, the stainless - steel main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated downward, with a trading volume of 175,834 hands (+ 5,708) and an open interest of 132,228 hands (+ 4,478). The spot market had weak trading volume, and the basis premium widened [2]. - The price differences between different stainless - steel futures contracts (near - month and far - month) and the basis (spot - futures) also changed. For example, the basis of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) average price - active contract was 915 yuan [2]. 3.2.2 Supply - Demand and Inventory - Supply: Stainless - steel production schedules increased in September [2]. - Demand: Terminal demand was weak [2]. - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories decreased, and last week, the 300 - series social inventory was 596,300 tons (- 15,400 tons) [2]. 3.2.3 Cost - High - nickel pig iron prices increased, and high - carbon ferrochrome prices remained flat [2]. 3.3 Investment Strategies - For nickel, the trading strategy is to short at high prices [2]. - For stainless steel, the trading strategy is to wait and see [2].

镍与不锈钢日评20250919:降息落地,上行驱动不足 | 2025-09-17 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-09-18 | 2025-09-11 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | 收盘价 | 120940.00 | 121790.00 | 120050.00 | -850.00 | 期货近月合约 | ~~~ | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ~~~ | 121110.00 | 121990.00 | 120620.00 | -880.00 | 期货连一合约 | 收盘价 | W | 期货连二合约 | 收盘价 | 122180.00 | -840.00 | 121340.00 | 120790.00 | | | | | | W | 期货连三合约 | 121480.00 | 122370.00 | 120950.00 | -890.00 | 收盘价 | > | 120940.00 | 12179 ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250919: 做多机会或逐步到来 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 变化值 9月17日 单位 9月18日 | | | | | 変化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | UR01 | 元/吨 | 1670.00 | 1681.00 | -11.00 | -0.65% | | 尿素期货价格 | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1725.00 | 1734.00 | -9.00 | -0.52% | | | (收盘价) | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1745.00 | 1755.00 | -10.00 | -0.57% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 1640.00 | 1650.00 | -10.00 | -0.61% | | 期现价格 | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1520.00 | 1530.00 | -10.00 | -0.65% | | 国内现货价格 | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1650.00 | 1660.00 | -10. ...

| 2 0 2 5 | / 9 / 1 9 | | | | 种 品 | | 更 | M E 新 日 期 | G 单 位 | | 值 现 | 前 值 | 幅 涨 跌 ( ) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 现 货 | 价 ( | 中 间 价 ) : | 石 脑 油 C : | F R 日 本 | 2 0 | 2 5 / 9 / 1 8 | 美 元 / | 吨 5 | 9 9. 3 8 | 6 0 8. 8 8 | 1. 5 6 % - | | | | 化 纤 | 价 格 | 指 数 乙 : | 烯 东 北 : | 亚 | 2 0 | 2 5 / 9 / 1 7 | 美 元 / | 吨 8 | 5 1. 0 0 | 8 5 1. 0 0 | 0. 0 0 % | | 上 游 | 成 本 | 出 厂 | 均 价 | 氧 乙 : 环 | 烷 华 东 : | 地 区 | 2 0 | 2 5 / 9 / 1 9 | 吨 元 / | 6 | 3 0 0. 0 0 | 6 ...

Group 1: Overall Information - The report is titled "Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Report 20250918: Rate Cut Implemented, Upward Driving Force Insufficient" [1] Group 2: Nickel Market Price and Volume - On September 17, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel near - month contract was 121,790 yuan/ton, down 820 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 90,734 lots, down 13,858 lots; the open interest was 58,829 lots, down 7,709 lots [2] - The LME 3 - month nickel official price was 15,250 dollars/ton, down 165 dollars from the previous day; the electronic - disk closing price was 15,445 dollars/ton, unchanged; the trading volume was 6,290 lots, up 1,202 lots [2] Spread and Basis - The spread between the Shanghai nickel near - month and continuous - first contracts was - 200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spread between the LME nickel 0 - 3 months was - 182.88 dollars/ton [2] - The basis of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price - Shanghai nickel active contract closing price was 990 yuan/ton; the basis of LME 3 - month nickel official price - electronic - disk closing price was - 195 dollars/ton [2] Inventory - The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 26,167 tons, down 26 tons; the LME nickel registered warehouse receipts were 214,602 tons, down 220,866 tons; the total LME nickel inventory was 228,468 tons, down 7,602 tons [2] Market Analysis - On September 17, the Shanghai nickel main contract fluctuated downward, with weak spot - market trading and an expanding basis premium. The nickel ore price remained flat, last week's nickel ore arrivals decreased, and port inventories increased. Nickel - iron mills' losses narrowed, with increased domestic production scheduling in September and increased production in Indonesia, leading to nickel - iron destocking. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in September, and export profits expanded. On the demand side, ternary production scheduling decreased, stainless - steel mills' production increased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable. Considering inventory, the SHFE inventory decreased, the LME inventory increased, the social inventory increased, and the bonded - area inventory decreased. With the Fed's rate cut implemented, the nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, and nickel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [2] Trading Strategy - Suggest selling short on rallies [2] Group 3: Stainless - Steel Market Price and Volume - On September 17, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai stainless - steel near - month contract was 12,840 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 170,126 lots, down 60,650 lots; the open interest was 127,750 lots, down 3,036 lots [2] Spread and Basis - The spread between the Shanghai stainless - steel near - month and continuous - first contracts was 20 yuan/ton; the basis of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) average price - active contract was 915 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - The Shanghai Futures Exchange stainless - steel inventory was 95,265 tons, down 480 tons; last week, the 300 - series social inventory was 96,600 tons, down 15,400 tons [2] Market Analysis - On September 17, the stainless - steel main contract oscillated at a low level, with weak spot - market trading and an expanding basis premium. In terms of inventory, the SHFE inventory decreased. On the supply side, stainless - steel production scheduling increased in September. On the demand side, terminal demand was weak. In terms of cost, the high - nickel pig iron price and high - carbon ferrochrome price remained flat. Although the fundamentals are loose, the cost side provides support, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [2] Trading Strategy - Suggest waiting and seeing [2] Group 4: Company News - Nickel 28 Capital Corp's 2025 Q2 production report showed that the Ramu nickel - cobalt project in Papua New Guinea operated by MCC Group's Ramu Nickel Cobalt had a production of 8,564 tons of MHP nickel metal (up 22.87% year - on - year) and 787 tons of cobalt metal in this quarter. The MHP nickel sales volume was 7,846 tons (up 27.93% year - on - year), and the cobalt sales volume was 719 tons. The cash cost of producing MHP and removing by - products in this quarter was 2.68 dollars/pound, equivalent to 5,908 dollars/ton [2]