黑色金属周报-双焦 二轮提降开启 双焦持续走弱 2025年12月12日 研究所 白净 从业资格号：F03097282； 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018999 TEL：82292661 目录 第一部分 焦煤 第二部分 焦炭 1 焦煤 价格方面，本周焦煤现货价格延续弱势。截至12月11日，蒙5原煤仓单1068元/吨 (-49)，山西安 泽主焦煤仓单1273元/吨；进口煤方面，加拿大鹿景仓单价格1255元/吨（-1）；期货方面，焦煤主力 合约价格下跌，环比上一交易周下跌10.83%，JM1-5价差-71(+13）元/吨。 基本面方面，从供应端来看，进入12月减产煤矿增多，产地供应继续减量，且近日主产区降雪， 影响下游到货节奏，部分煤种因资源有限有短暂企稳现象。数据显示，本期炼焦煤（523家）开工率 85.31%，环比下降0.28个百分点，日均精煤产量75万吨，环比下降0.37万吨；需求方面，终端铁水继 续减量，双焦刚需依然承压，焦炭两轮降价后仍有再降预期，矿点高价成交依然乏力。数据显示，钢 联523口径精煤库存255.31万吨，环比回升8.3万吨。进口海运煤方面，澳洲矿山持续控货，而海外终 端刚需仍存，货源紧缺下煤 ...

| 铅锌日评20251212：沪铅震荡偏强；沪锌或有反弹 | | --- | | 2025/12/12 指标 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 17,075.00 0.59% | | 沪铅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 17,155.00 0.23% | | 沪铅基差 元/吨 -80.00 60.00 | | 25.00 - 升贴水-上海 元/吨 | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -49.03 0.73 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 -95.00 1.80 | | 价差 元/吨 15.00 65.00 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 | | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 -5.00 10.00 铅 | | 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 元/吨 15.00 15.00 | | 手 34,885.00 -4.29% 期货活跃合约成交量 | | 成交持仓 期货活跃合约持仓量 手 35,754.00 -9.06% | | 成交持仓比 / 0.98 5.24% | | LME库存 吨 235,475.00 0.00% 库存 | | 沪铅仓单库存 吨 17,711.00 14.79% | | ...

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20251212：宽幅整理 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 2025/12/12 | 指标 | | | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 9,200.00 | 0.00% | | 工业硅期现价格 元/吨 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 8,285.00 | 0.42% | | 元/吨 | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | 915.00 | -35.00 | | 元/千克 | N型多晶硅料 | 51.00 | 0.00% | | 多晶硅期现价格 元/吨 元/吨 | 期货主力合约收盘价 基差 | 55,765.00 -4,765.00 | -0.27% 150.00 | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 9,200.00 | 0.00% | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | 9,300.00 | 0.00% | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 | 9,150.00 | 0.00% | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（昆明）平均价格 | 9,350.00 ...

| | | 尿素早评20251212: 关注成本端能否企稳 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日度 | 变化值 変化值 单位 12月11日 12月10日 | | | | | | | | | UR01 | 元/吨 | 1638.00 | 1645.00 | (绝对值) -7.00 | (相对值) -0.43% | | | 民素期货价格 | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1703.00 | 1713.00 | -10.00 | -0.58% | | | (收盘价) | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1716.00 | 1721.00 | -5.00 | -0.29% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 1710.00 | 1700.00 | 10.00 | 0.59% | | 期现价格 | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1540.00 | 1530.00 | 10.00 | 0.65% | | | 国内现货价格 | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1690.00 | 1690.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | (小顆粒) ...

盘贵声明：宏源期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构，已具备期货交易咨询业务资格。本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均求源于 公开资料，本公司对这些信息的推确性和完整性不作任何保证。这不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生在何预必。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公 正. 但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议、救资者依据本报告提供的信息进行对授数资所造成的一切后果,本公司拥有负责 。本报告版权仅仅为本公司所有，未经书面许可，在何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、度制和发布、如引用、刊发，凝准明出处为宏源期货。且不 得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。数据来源:SHM和WIND。风险提示:期市有风险,按资深谨慎! 王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 | | | 沪铜日评20251212:国内财政与货币政策宽松预期推升铜价 | | 变量名称 2025-12-03 较昨日变动 | 2025-12-11 | 2025-12-10 | | | 近期走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜期货活跃合 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - On December 11, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated upward. The short - term fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand, and it is expected that there is limited upside space for lithium prices. Suggest to hold short positions cautiously and set stop - losses [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Data - On December 11, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 95,600 yuan/ton, 96,980 yuan/ton, 97,240 yuan/ton, and 97,240 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 1,960 yuan/ton, 2,900 yuan/ton, 2,840 yuan/ton, and 2,840 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 744,190 lots (+123,255), and the open interest of the active contract was 634,283 lots (+28,830). The inventory was 14,750 tons (+1,070) [1] Spot Price - On December 11, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 93,500 yuan/ton (+800), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic) was 91,000 yuan/ton (+750). The prices of other lithium - related products also had corresponding changes [1] Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Last week, lithium carbonate production increased, with increased production of spodumene and recycled lithium, and decreased production of lithium carbonate from salt lakes and lithium mica. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of ammonium phosphate decreased, and the production of ternary materials decreased. In December, the production of lithium cobalt oxide and lithium manganate decreased. In November, the month - on - month and year - on - year growth rates of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down; 3C shipments were weak; in December, the production schedule of energy - storage batteries stagnated [1] Inventory - Registered warehouse receipts were 14,750 tons (+1,070). Social inventory decreased, with inventory reduction in smelters and downstream, and inventory accumulation in other sectors [1] Industry News - American company Albemarle announced that the direct lithium extraction (DIE) pilot plant in Chile has completed verification. The lithium recovery rate exceeded 94% during stable operation, and the water reuse rate was as high as 85% during the verification phase. The company funded $30 million for the pilot plant and an additional $216 million for the salt recovery plant in the Atacama Salt Flat [1] - On December 10, the integrated mining, beneficiation, and smelting project of Xiangyuan lithium polymetallic ore of Zijin Mining was put into operation in Daoxian, Hunan. The project has a total investment of about 13 billion yuan, with a registered ore volume of about 1.96 billion tons and 670,000 tons of lithium oxide [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The expected Fed balance - sheet expansion and global debt inflation support precious metal prices. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates in December and in 2026 - 2027, and start monthly reserve management purchases of short - term Treasuries, which is a technical balance - sheet expansion exceeding expectations. Fiscal easing policies in multiple countries lead to expectations of debt inflation and fiscal deficit expansion. Geopolitical risks and central bank gold - buying also support precious metal prices in the medium to long term [1] - The supply - demand situation of platinum and palladium is different. Platinum supply is expected to be tight in 2025 - 2026, with supply gaps of 26 and 18 tons respectively, and an average annual supply - demand gap of about 19 tons until 2029. Palladium supply is expected to change from tight to loose, with supply gaps of 8 and 3 tons in 2025 - 2026 and a looser supply - demand situation in 2027 [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: On December 12, 2025, the closing price was 957.90 yuan/gram, down 3.14 from the previous week and up 1.50 from the previous day. Trading volume was 242,710, and open interest was 192,178. Inventory was 91,302 (in ten - gram units) [1] - **Spot Shanghai Gold T + D**: The closing price was 952.35 yuan/gram, down 3.65 from the previous week. Trading volume was 33,596, and open interest was 200,796 [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 14,447 yuan/kg, up 70 from the previous day and 808 from the previous week. Trading volume was 894,426, and open interest was 3,823,854 [1] - **Spot Shanghai Silver T + D**: Relevant trading and position data are also provided, along with information on spreads and basis [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 4,309.30 dollars/ounce, up 74.50 from the previous day. Trading volume was 220,543, and open interest was 321,283. Inventory was 36,115,605.50 (in troy ounces) [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 1.78 dollars/ounce, up 5.05 from the previous week. Trading volume was 118,368, and open interest was 118,097. Inventory was 455,817,117.44 (in troy ounces) [1] Important Information - US initial jobless claims increased by 44,000 last week, the largest increase since 2020, and continuing claims dropped to an 8 - month low. The US trade deficit in September fell to a five - year low [1] - Global long - term bond yields soared to a 16 - year high, and the market bets that the global interest - rate cut cycle is about to end [1] Trading Strategies Gold and Silver - Adopt a long - position strategy when prices fall. For London gold, focus on support levels around 3900 - 4100 and resistance levels around 4400 - 4600; for Shanghai gold, focus on support levels around 890 - 920 and resistance levels around 1000 - 1050. For London silver, focus on support levels around 49 - 54 and resistance levels around 63 - 72; for Shanghai silver, focus on support levels around 11500 - 12500 and resistance levels around 15000 - 16000 [1] Platinum - Unilaterally establish long positions when prices fall, and cautiously hold long positions in the "long platinum, short palladium" arbitrage strategy. For London platinum, focus on support levels around 1300 - 1500 and resistance levels around 1800 - 2000; for domestic platinum, focus on support levels around 335 - 385 and resistance levels around 465 - 516 [1] Palladium - Unilaterally establish long positions when prices fall. For London palladium, focus on support levels around 1190 - 1390 and resistance levels around 1600 - 1800; for domestic palladium, focus on support levels around 305 - 357 and resistance levels around 415 - 465 [1]

镍与不锈钢日评20251212:修复后区间震荡 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-12-11 | 2025-12-10 | 2025-12-04 | 近两周走势 | 较昨日变化 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 115400.00 | 116150.00 | 117340.00 | -750.00 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -1,220.00 | 115870.00 | 117090.00 | 117760.00 | 期货连一合约 | 收盘价 | 期货连二合约 | 1 | -1,180.00 | 收盘价 | 116060.00 | 117240.00 | 117940.00 | | | | | | 117430.00 | 118220.00 | -1,140.00 | 期货连三合约 | 收盘价 | 116290.00 | ( | -1,220.00 | 115870.00 | 117090.00 | 1 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expected Fed rate cuts and global debt inflation are likely to support precious metal prices in the medium to long term. However, high platinum and palladium prices may suppress downstream demand, leading to price adjustments [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Data Summary - **Gold**: On December 10, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai gold futures was 951.13 yuan/gram, up 4.44 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume of spot Shanghai gold T+D was 28,814, a decrease of 7,010 from the previous day. The closing price of COMEX gold futures was 4258.30 dollars/ounce, up 21.70 dollars from the previous week; the London gold spot price was 4200.15 dollars/ounce [1]. - **Silver**: The closing price of Shanghai silver futures was 14,377 yuan/kilogram, up 781 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume of spot Shanghai silver T+D was 822,474, an increase of 47,084 from the previous day. The closing price of COMEX silver futures was 62.20 dollars/ounce, up 3.05 dollars from the previous day; the London silver spot price was 61.04 dollars/ounce [1]. - **Other Commodities and Financial Indicators**: The price of INE crude oil was 443.70 yuan/barrel, down 2.40 yuan from the previous day; the price of ICE Brent crude oil was 62.52 dollars/barrel, up 0.40 dollars from the previous day. The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (SHIBOR) overnight was 1.30%, unchanged from the previous day; the U.S. 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.1300%, down 0.05 from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Important News - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but three voting members opposed it. It still expects one rate cut next year and will buy 40 billion dollars of short - term bonds. Powell said the bond - buying scale may remain at a relatively high level in the next few months [1]. - Trump is conducting a "final interview" for the Fed chair position. Hassett is not yet a certainty, and Bessent still has a chance to succeed. Hassett said Trump will make a final decision on the Fed chair candidate in the next 1 - 2 weeks and reiterated that the Fed still has significant room for rate cuts [1]. 3.3 Multi - and Short - Side Logic and Trading Strategies 3.3.1 Gold and Silver - **Multi - and Short - Side Logic**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December and is expected to cut rates once in 2026 and 2027, but the market expects two rate cuts in 2026. The Fed will start monthly reserve management purchases of short - term bonds worth 40 billion dollars on December 12, which may gradually slow down to 20 - 25 billion dollars per month later. Germany, Japan, and the UK have launched fiscal stimulus policies, leading to expectations of global debt inflation and fiscal deficit expansion. The 1 - month lease rate of London silver exceeds 6.4%, indicating a tight supply. Global central banks continue to buy gold, and geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine, the Middle East, and the U.S. - Venezuela remain unresolved [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Focus on buying on price dips. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3900 - 4100 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 4400 - 4600 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 890 - 920 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 1000 - 1050 yuan/gram. For London silver, focus on the support level around 49 - 54 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 63 - 72 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 11,500 - 12,500 yuan/kilogram and the resistance level around 15,000 - 16,000 yuan/kilogram [1]. 3.3.2 Platinum - **Multi - and Short - Side Logic**: On the supply side, high deep - mine mining costs, unstable power supply, and production equipment maintenance may reduce global platinum production to 169 tons in 2025, and recycled platinum production may grow slowly to 50 tons. In 2026, global platinum production may reach 174 tons, and recycled platinum production may be 53 tons, with the total supply increasing to 227 tons. On the demand side, stricter emission standards increase the demand for platinum in traditional fuel and hybrid vehicles, and there is optimistic demand in industrial fields such as hydrogen production. However, there are concerns about a decline in jewelry and investment demand. The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) predicts supply shortages of 26 tons in 2025 and 18 tons in 2026, with an average annual shortage of about 19 tons until at least 2029. High platinum prices may suppress downstream demand [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Take profits on previous long positions on price rallies and hold "long platinum, short palladium" positions cautiously. For London platinum, pay attention to the support level around 1300 - 1500 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 1800 - 2000 dollars/ounce; for domestic platinum, focus on the support level around 335 - 385 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 465 - 516 yuan/gram [1]. 3.3.3 Palladium - **Multi - and Short - Side Logic**: On the supply side, deep - mine mining, power shortages, labor disputes, and lower ore grades affect palladium production, but the recycling supply is expected to increase from 2026 - 2027 due to the vehicle scrapping cycle in China and globally. In 2025, the production of mined and recycled palladium may be 199 tons and 92 tons respectively, with a total supply of 291 tons. In 2026, the production of mined and recycled palladium may be 194 tons and 98 tons respectively, with a total supply of 292 tons. On the demand side, stricter emission standards and the development of new - energy vehicles reduce the demand for palladium in the automotive sector, while the demand in industrial and medical fields is relatively inelastic. The World Platinum Investment Association (WIIC) predicts supply shortages of 8 tons in 2025 and 3 tons in 2026, with the supply - demand situation expected to ease in 2027 [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Take profits on previous long positions on price rallies. For London palladium, pay attention to the support level around 1190 - 1390 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 1600 - 1800 dollars/ounce; for domestic palladium, focus on the support level around 305 - 357 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 415 - 465 yuan/gram [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate show strong supply and weak demand, and the lithium price is expected to fluctuate weakly under position limits. It is recommended to hold short positions [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures Market - **Price**: On December 10, 2025, the closing price of the near - month contract was 93,640 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1,060 yuan compared to December 9; the trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 620,935 hands, an increase of 108,720 hands; the open interest was 605,453 hands, an increase of 30,032 hands [1] - **Spread**: The spread between the near - month and the first - consecutive contract was - 440 yuan, the spread between the first - consecutive and the second - consecutive contract was - 80 yuan, and the spread between the second - consecutive and the third - consecutive contract was - 60 yuan [1] - **Inventory**: The registered inventory was 1,368 tons, an increase of 760 tons [1] 3.2 Lithium - Related Product Prices - **Lithium Ore**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,178 US dollars/ton; the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,640 yuan/ton [1] - **Lithium Compounds**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% domestic) was 92,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% CIF China, Japan and South Korea) was 10.2 US dollars/kg [1] - **Other Products**: The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (99.95% domestic) was 171,000 yuan/ton; the average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 106,050 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 Lithium Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Last week, the output of lithium carbonate increased, with a decrease in the output of salt - lake lithium carbonate and an increase in the output of lithium carbonate from other raw materials [1] - **Demand**: Last week, the output of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased; in December, the production scheduling of lithium iron phosphate and lithium manganate decreased; last week, the output of power batteries increased; in November, the month - on - month and year - on - year growth rates of new - energy vehicle production and sales slowed down; the 3C shipments weakened; the production scheduling growth of energy - storage batteries stagnated in December [1] 3.4 Lithium Inventory - The SMM lithium carbonate inventory: the inventory of smelters was 20,767 tons, the inventory of downstream was 41,984 tons, and the inventory of others was 49,140 tons. The total inventory decreased by 2,366 tons compared to the previous week [1] 3.5 Industry News - Standard Lithium and Equinor's joint - venture Smackover Lithium announced that its Arkansas Smackover project has attracted over $1.1 billion in financing intentions, covering 76% of the $1.45 billion construction cost of Phase I. The project uses uncommercialized direct lithium extraction (DLE) technology but faces challenges [1]