1-2月财政数据点评：广义财政支出靠前发力

Revenue Insights - In January-February 2025, the national general public budget revenue was CNY 43,856.0 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, with the decline expanding by 2.9 percentage points compared to the previous year[2] - Central government revenue was CNY 19,499.0 billion, down 5.8% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 6.7 percentage points[5] - Local government revenue was CNY 24,357.0 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, with the growth rate expanding by 0.3 percentage points[5] Tax Contributions - Personal income tax contributed positively to the revenue growth, achieving a 2.3 percentage point increase year-on-year, with a month-on-month improvement of 2.4 percentage points[7] - Domestic value-added tax turned from negative to positive contribution, achieving 0.4 percentage points, with a month-on-month improvement of 1.9 percentage points[7] - Corporate income tax showed a negative contribution of -2.8 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting the impact of the Spring Festival on corporate operations[3] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure reached CNY 45,096.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.2 percentage points[9] - Central government expenditure was CNY 5,242.0 billion, up 8.6% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding by 2.1 percentage points[9] - Local government expenditure was CNY 39,854.0 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.5 percentage points[9] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The general fiscal revenue and expenditure for January-February were CNY 50,237.0 billion and CNY 56,454.0 billion respectively, with expenditure growth outpacing revenue growth at 2.9%[15] - The government plans to implement a more proactive fiscal policy with a target deficit ratio of around 4% for the year, indicating a significant increase in fiscal spending[15] - Risks include heightened overseas recession risks and increased geopolitical uncertainties[15]