2月宏观环境观察：经济回暖，政策加力

Global Macro Environment - Global manufacturing PMI rose to 50.6 in February, up 0.5 percentage points from January, indicating continued expansion in the manufacturing sector[5] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI decreased to 50.3, down 0.6 percentage points from January, signaling signs of stagflation[7] - European economies are showing signs of recovery, with the Eurozone manufacturing PMI rising to 47.6 and the ZEW economic sentiment index increasing for four consecutive months[13] Domestic Macro Environment - Industrial production in China showed strong performance with industrial added value growth at 5.9% year-on-year, significantly above the overall economic growth rate[16] - Consumer performance remains weak, with February CPI down 0.7% year-on-year and PPI down 2.2% year-on-year, indicating deflationary pressures[20] - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.1% year-on-year in January-February, with manufacturing investment up 9% and infrastructure investment up 9.9%[22] Real Estate Market - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, particularly in second-hand housing transactions in first-tier cities, while new housing starts fell nearly 30% year-on-year[25] - The trend of "strong supply, weak demand" is expected to stabilize housing prices gradually[25] Policy and Economic Outlook - The Chinese government aims for a GDP growth target of 5% for 2025, reflecting confidence in economic recovery and substantial policy reserves[30] - The government plans to implement the largest fiscal and monetary stimulus measures in recent years, with a budget deficit target of 4% and a total deficit of 5.66 trillion yuan[31] - The Federal Reserve maintains a dovish stance, with expectations for continued interest rate cuts, indicating a prolonged easing cycle[36]