金融期货日报-2025-03-25

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core Views - Stock Index: The preliminary value of the US manufacturing PMI in March unexpectedly returned to contraction, the service PMI was better than expected but the outlook confidence was low, and tariffs caused a sharp rise in material costs. The People's Bank of China adjusted the winning bid method to conduct 450 billion yuan of MLF operations, and the policy interest rate attribute of MLF has withdrawn from the historical stage. The Chinese Ministry of Finance stated that in 2025, fiscal policy should be more proactive, increasing the fiscal deficit ratio and arranging a larger - scale government bond; in 2025, it is necessary to support the all - around expansion of domestic demand and focus on enhancing scientific and technological innovation capabilities. From January to February in China, the general public budget revenue decreased by 1.6% year - on - year, the expenditure increased by 3.4% year - on - year, and the securities trading stamp duty increased by 58.9%. The trading volume of stock indices decreased compared with before, but the US tariff stance has become more lenient. The Beijing Stock Exchange and the Hong Kong stock market closed higher in the late trading yesterday, and the stock indices may fluctuate [1]. - Treasury Bonds: With the end of a large - scale treasury bond issuance on Monday, the biggest negative factor in the market this week has subsided. As the end of the quarter approaches, the capital situation and institutional behavior remain the core concerns of the market. Given the accelerated issuance of government bonds this week, it is expected that the capital injection during the cross - quarter period will be more proactive. In terms of institutional behavior, although the fluctuations caused by the bond sales of the banking system still exist, the overall sales volume has decreased. In addition, after the end of the quarter, these institutions may transform into new allocation forces. Overall, the amplitude of the market correction caused by the after - effects is gradually decreasing, and the bond market may face more obvious positive factors in the future [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - Stock Index: Fluctuate [2]. - Treasury Bonds: Take profit and wait and see [4]. 4. Market Review - Stock Index: The futures of the main contract of the CSI 300 index rose 0.49%, the futures of the main contract of the SSE 50 index rose 0.68%, the futures of the main contract of the CSI 500 index fell 0.01%, and the futures of the main contract of the CSI 1000 index fell 0.47% [5]. - Treasury Bonds: The 10 - year main contract rose 0.12%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.09%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.33%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.02% [8]. 5. Technical Analysis - Stock Index: The Shanghai Composite Index is below the 5 - day moving average [6]. - Treasury Bonds: The T continuous main contract closed above the 5 - day moving average [9]. 6. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/03/24 | CSI 300 Continuous Main | 3,900.20 | 0.49 | 51,229 | 151,921 | | 2025/03/24 | SSE 50 Continuous Main | 2,689.00 | 0.68 | 25,107 | 51,401 | | 2025/03/24 | CSI 500 Continuous Main | 5,903.80 | - 0.01 | 52,006 | 71,554 | | 2025/03/24 | CSI 1000 Continuous Main | 6,142.80 | - 0.47 | 139,956 | 158,394 | | 2025/03/24 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Main | 107.60 | 0.12 | 79,458 | 176,230 | | 2025/03/24 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Main | 105.51 | 0.09 | 65,439 | 147,785 | | 2025/03/24 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Main | 115.59 | 0.33 | 119,255 | 102,815 | | 2025/03/24 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Main | 102.39 | 0.02 | 32,449 | 93,614 | [11]