金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 周三早盘 A 股震荡回落，午后人工智能板块带动反弹，无视隔夜美股及亚太 股指下跌，股指期货大涨呈逼空态势，与碳酸锂跌停形成反差。资金面宽松 是主因：央行宽松政策下，资金为求回报流入股期市场；居民财富管理意识 提升、房地产吸引力下降，部分资金转向金融领域，充实股市资金池。市场普 遍看涨形成正向反馈—投资者买入推升价格，价格上涨又吸引更多资金入场， 放大涨幅，这种情绪与信心转变成为股指期货 IM、IC 逼空行情的重要心理基 础。 ◆ 策略建议： 逢低做多 国债 保持观望 研究咨询部 2025-08-21 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司期货交易咨 询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 金融期货团队 研究员： 彭博 从业编号：F3080600 投资咨询编号：Z0021839 研究员： 张志恒 ◆ 核心观点： 以前期高点作为参考，如果后续收益率调整高度不能突破前高（以 30 年国债 活跃券 2500002 前高 2.06%为例），那么权益市场的强势表现对债市冲击最 猛烈的时刻很可能已经过去；同时债市还迎来了税期过后资金面重回宽松以 及基金赎回压力经历前期释放而有所缓解的边际利好 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 08 月 21 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 保持观望 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 09 空头看待 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间交易或观望 | | ◆铝： | 建议待回落后逢低布局多单 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 09 合约空头持有 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： 震荡偏强 | | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆ ...

Report Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures - bullish on dips; Treasury bonds - hold off [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar - range trading; Glass - weakening in a range; Coking coal and coke - range - bound [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - range trading or hold off; Aluminum - buy on dips after pullbacks; Nickel - hold off or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading [1][12][13] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC - weakening in a range; Soda ash - short 09 and long 05 arbitrage; Caustic soda - range - bound; Styrene - range - bound; Rubber - strengthening in a range; Urea - range - bound; Methanol - range - bound; Polyolefins - wide - range weakening [1][19][20] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - strengthening in a range; Apples - strengthening in a range; Red dates - strengthening in a range [1][35][36] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Hogs - short on rallies; Eggs - short on rallies; Corn - range - bound; Soybean meal - range - bound; Oils - strengthening in a range [1][37][38] Core Views - Market conditions are influenced by various factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and international events. Different futures varieties present different trends and investment opportunities due to their own characteristics and external impacts [6][9][12] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: With the T + 0 function, maintain positions, lock in positions when there is a downward trend, and earn profits during the heat - up period. Consider the impacts of international events like China - India and US - Russia - Ukraine meetings [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the bond allocation value is emerging and market sentiment is recovering, it is not recommended to enter the market aggressively due to potential disturbances from the equity market and possible chain - reactions from yield adjustments [6] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: Futures prices continue to decline. Considering factors like external trade policies, production, and inventory, it is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern. Focus on the [3100 - 3300] range for RB2510 [9] - **Glass**: Futures are in a weakening trend. With inventory pressure and potential policy impacts, the 09 contract is considered weak, and attention should be paid to the 930 - 950 support level [8][9][10] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal is in a game between tight supply and weakening demand, and is expected to be range - bound. Coke is supported by low inventory, high demand, and supply disturbances, and is also expected to be range - bound [10][11] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by macro - data and supply - demand fundamentals, it is expected to be range - bound with a slightly upward trend. The short - term operating range for Shanghai copper is 78000 - 79500 yuan/ton [12][13] - **Aluminum**: Despite short - term negative events, considering the transition from the off - season to the peak season, it is recommended to buy on dips [13][14] - **Nickel**: In the medium - to long - term, the supply is in surplus, and it is recommended to short on rallies moderately [16] - **Tin**: With improving supply and weakening demand in the off - season, it is recommended to conduct range trading, with the reference range for the SH09 contract being 257,000 - 276,000 yuan/ton [17] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by factors such as US economic data and geopolitical events, they are expected to be range - bound. It is recommended to buy on dips [17][18] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high supply, uncertain export sustainability, and weak demand, it is expected to be in a weakening range. The 01 contract is temporarily focused on the 4900 - 5000 range [19][20][21] - **Caustic Soda**: With sufficient supply and rigid demand with a slow - down in growth, the 01 contract is expected to be range - bound in the 2550 - 2650 range [21][22] - **Styrene**: With limited fundamental positives and a warm macro - environment, the price is expected to be range - bound in the 7100 - 7400 range [23][24] - **Rubber**: With cost support and inventory reduction, it is expected to be in a strengthening range within the 15200 - 15600 range [25][27] - **Urea**: Affected by supply, demand, and export factors, the 01 contract is under pressure at 1820 - 1850 [28] - **Methanol**: With a slight decline in supply, stable demand from methanol - to - olefins, and weak traditional demand, the price is expected to be in a weakening range [30] - **Polyolefins**: With cost uncertainties and a slow recovery in downstream demand, the L2509 contract is focused on the 7200 - 7500 range, and the PP2509 contract is focused on the 6900 - 7200 range [30][31] - **Soda Ash**: Due to supply increases and potential inventory accumulation, it is recommended to hold short positions on the 09 contract [33] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: With improved global supply - demand, a better macro - environment, and expectations of the peak season, the price is expected to strengthen in a range [35] - **Apples**: Based on low inventory and growth impacts, the price is expected to maintain a high - level range - bound pattern [36] - **Red Dates**: With the current growth situation and market conditions, the price is expected to strengthen in a range [36] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: With supply pressure and different expectations for different contracts, it is recommended to lock in profits on short positions at low levels, add short positions at pressure levels, and pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [37][38] - **Eggs**: With sufficient short - term supply and uncertain long - term supply, it is recommended to short on rallies for the 10 contract and consider long positions on dips for the 12 and 01 contracts if the elimination process accelerates [38][39][40] - **Corn**: With sufficient supply and suitable growing conditions, the 11 contract is expected to be range - bound. It is recommended to short on rallies or hold the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage [40] - **Soybean Meal**: With a tightening supply - demand situation for US soybeans and different supply - demand patterns in different periods in China, it is recommended to hold long positions on a rolling basis and reduce positions on rallies [42] - **Oils**: With short - term high - level callback risks and long - term positive factors, it is recommended to buy on dips, take profits on existing long positions, and pay attention to the rapeseed oil 11 - 01 reverse arbitrage [43][44][50]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the increase in domestic palm oil and rapeseed oil purchases and the call to postpone B50 limit the upside space for oils. However, in the long term, the supply - demand of the three major oils is expected to tighten, laying the foundation for the rise of oil prices. The price performance in the fourth quarter is expected to be stronger than that in the third quarter [2][60]. - For trading strategies, in the short term, the support levels for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils are 8400 - 8500, 9300 - 9400, and 9700 respectively. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended, and chasing highs should be done with caution. Attention can be paid to the reverse spread of rapeseed oil 11 - 01 [3][61]. Summary by Directory Palm Oil - **Short - term Outlook**: Although palm oil is in the seasonal production - increasing period, with the August inventory rising to 2.13 million tons but lower than market expectations, and the high - frequency data showing a decrease in production and an increase in exports in August, palm oil is expected to strengthen again after a small correction [6]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: The MPOB July report shows that Malaysia's palm oil has strong supply and demand, but high domestic consumption leads to a lower - than - expected inventory increase. In August, export data improved, with a 16.5 - 21.3% increase in exports from August 1 - 15 compared to the previous month, and production growth slowed down, which is beneficial for price increases. However, seasonal inventory accumulation from September to October may disrupt prices [6]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: The GAPKI May report shows a decrease in production and an increase in exports, with the inventory decreasing to 2.916 million tons. From June to July, production continued to decline, possibly due to the crackdown on illegal plantations. Domestic consumption and export demand are expected to remain strong, and the supply - demand is expected to maintain a long - term tight balance, driving up international palm oil prices. The main uncertainties come from lagging data and the risk of B50 postponement [8]. - **Domestic Palm Oil**: In the short term, the supply is relatively abundant, with the inventory reaching 617,300 tons as of August 15. Recently, the import profit has improved, and traders are increasing purchases from August to November. In the long term, although the supply pressure from the origin is not large, the price may be affected by Malaysian seasonal inventory accumulation, Indian procurement demand fluctuations, and Indonesian biodiesel policies [13][17]. Soybean Oil - **Short - term Outlook**: The USDA August report was unexpectedly bullish, and the high - level of domestic soybean and soybean oil inventories, along with concerns about future soybean supply, lead to a short - term strong - side oscillation for soybean oil [18]. - **US Soybean Production**: The USDA August report increased the 25/26 US soybean yield but decreased the planting area by 2.5 million acres. The new - crop supply - demand has tightened, and there is a possibility of further tightening. If the yield drops to 52.5 bushels, the ending inventory will decline to a very low level of 200 million bushels [19]. - **US Soybean Demand**: In the biodiesel sector, the increase in demand for US soybean oil in biodiesel is likely, but the increase may be lower than expected. In the export sector, as of August 18, there was no news of China's resumption of US soybean purchases, which may suppress US soybean prices [20]. - **South American Soybeans**: China continues to purchase a large amount of Brazilian soybeans. If China does not buy US soybeans, the cost of Brazilian soybeans will increase, and Argentina's soybean meal may be imported in large quantities in the fourth quarter [23]. - **Domestic Situation**: From May to August, a large amount of South American soybeans entered China, leading to high inventories of domestic soybeans and soybean oil. In the short term, the supply is sufficient, but after October, if US soybeans cannot be imported, the supply will tighten, which is beneficial for soybean oil destocking [23]. Rapeseed Oil - **Price Fluctuation**: The price of rapeseed oil has fluctuated significantly due to the preliminary anti - dumping review of Canadian rapeseed. After the initial sharp rise, it declined due to the risk warning from the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and news of alternative imports [38]. - **Domestic Supply - Demand**: After August 14, the import of Canadian rapeseed will decrease significantly. Although there are plans to increase imports from other countries, they cannot fully make up for the supply shortage. The supply - demand of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil is expected to tighten, which is beneficial for price increases. However, policy adjustments and alternative imports may disrupt prices [40]. - **Impact on Canada**: China is the largest buyer of Canadian rapeseed. After the anti - dumping review, the export demand of Canadian rapeseed will face a significant decline, and the supply - demand will shift from slightly loose to significantly loose or even severely surplus, suppressing the price of Canadian rapeseed [50]. - **International Trade**: After the anti - dumping decision, China's dependence on Canadian rapeseed products will decrease, while its dependence on Australian rapeseed and rapeseed oil from other countries will increase. Canada will increase its dependence on the US, UAE, and the EU [54].

公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 2025-8-19 有色产业服务中心 铜 | 专题报告 美国关税政策梳理及对铜价影响分析 报告要点 今年以来，特朗普的关税政策无疑是全球最大黑天鹅事件。4 月特 朗普全球加征对等关税超预期，贸易冲突下市场风险偏好回落。7 月 30 日，美国铜 232 关税落地，自 8 月 1 日起对进口半成品铜产品及铜密集 型衍生产品普遍征收 50%的关税。美国总统特朗普通过逆全球化的关税 政策，扩大政治壁垒重塑全球贸易格局，对经济全球化造成破坏。 特朗普加征关税（包括对等关税和 232 铜关税）对铜价的影响主要 有三个方面。首先，关税政策重塑全球贸易环境，阻碍经济发展及需 求。随着贸易摩擦对全球经济增长产生影响，铜消费的边际增速可能受 到冲击。其次，232 铜关税豁免精炼铜，主要对铜半成品进出口产生影 响，对国内铜影响有限。最后，铜具有金融属性，特朗普关税政策及美 国财政货币政策长期影响美元指数走弱，或对铜价有所提振。 长期来看，美国将从 2027 年起精炼铜将可能被分阶段加征关税， 由于特朗普习惯用关税政策作为谈判博弈的筹码达成政治目的，最 ...

Core Views - Trump and Zelensky reported a good atmosphere in their talks; Trump also spoke with Putin, and both sides supported direct negotiations between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations. Li Qiang stated that effective measures will be taken to consolidate the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market, cultivate and expand service consumption, and increase efforts to expand effective investment. The People's Bank of China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and strengthen financial support for technology and consumption. The market is strong, and it is recommended to use the T+0 feature of stock index futures, maintain positions, closely monitor market trends, lock in positions when a downward trend appears based on technical analysis, earn profits during the period of rising market sentiment, and stabilize profits when the trend is unfavorable [1]. - Considering the absolute levels, the yield of 30-year old bonds has risen to 2.15%, and the yield of newly issued 30-year local bonds has adjusted to over 2.32%, which is sufficient to cover the lowered liability costs of insurance funds, helping to attract insurance fund allocation. Meanwhile, there is a demand for corrective movement in the technical analysis of the equity market. The bond market may experience a slight recovery due to the "return to loose" liquidity conditions and a slight decline in equity market sentiment [2]. Strategy Recommendations - For stock index futures, it is recommended to go long on dips [1]. - For treasury bond futures, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [3]. Market Review Stock Index Futures - The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 0.82%, SSE 50 rose 0.08%, CSI 500 rose 1.28%, and CSI 1000 rose 1.58% [5]. Treasury Bond Futures - The 10-year main contract fell 0.29%, the 5-year main contract fell 0.21%, the 30-year main contract fell 1.33%, and the 2-year main contract fell 0.04% [6]. Technical Analysis Stock Index Futures - The RSI indicator shows that the market is approaching a short-term high [5]. Treasury Bond Futures - The KDJ indicator shows that the T contract may rebound [6]. Futures Data | Date | Futures Type | Closing Price (Yuan/Contract) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-08-18 | CSI 300 Continuous | 4,237.80 | 0.82 | 99,705 | 168,841 | | 2025-08-18 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2,848.40 | 0.08 | 52,884 | 74,907 | | 2025-08-18 | CSI 500 Continuous | 6,608.00 | 1.28 | 83,689 | 129,184 | | 2025-08-18 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 7,184.40 | 1.58 | 187,694 | 220,587 | | 2025-08-18 | 10-Year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.02 | -0.29 | 90,469 | 107,322 | | 2025-08-18 | 5-Year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.46 | -0.21 | 70,226 | 86,134 | | 2025-08-18 | 30-Year Treasury Bond Continuous | 116.09 | -1.33 | 141,981 | 61,613 | | 2025-08-18 | 2-Year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.30 | -0.04 | 46,079 | 61,412 | [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures - Bullish on dips; Treasury bonds - Neutral [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar - Neutral; Iron ore - Bullish with a bias; Coking coal and coke - Neutral [1][6][7] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - Neutral; Aluminum - Bullish on dips; Nickel - Bearish on rallies; Tin - Neutral; Gold - Bullish on dips; Silver - Bullish on dips [1][11][12] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC - Bearish; Soda ash - Short 09, long 05; Caustic soda - Bullish with a bias; Styrene - Neutral; Rubber - Bullish with a bias; Urea - Neutral; Methanol - Neutral; Polyolefins - Bearish [1][19][21] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - Bullish with a bias; Apples - Bullish with a bias; Jujubes - Bullish with a bias [1][35] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs - Bearish on rallies; Eggs - Bearish on rallies; Corn - Neutral; Soybean meal - Bullish with limited upside; Oils and fats - Bullish with limited downside [1][37][39] Core Views - The global economic and political situation, including geopolitical events and policy announcements, significantly impacts the futures market. For example, geopolitical talks and central bank policies affect market sentiment and asset prices [6]. - Supply - demand fundamentals play a crucial role in determining the price trends of various commodities. Factors such as production capacity, inventory levels, and consumption demand vary across different industries and influence price movements [20][28]. - Seasonal factors and market expectations, like the "Golden September and Silver October" season in the cotton market and the peak - off - peak seasons in the energy and chemical industries, also affect commodity prices [35]. Summaries by Categories Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Trump's diplomatic activities and Chinese government's economic policies boost market sentiment. It is recommended to use the T + 0 feature of index futures, hold positions, and lock in profits during downward trends [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: High - yield bonds may attract insurance funds. The bond market may recover slightly due to potential "looser" liquidity and a slight decline in equity market sentiment [6]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: After a sharp decline on Monday, prices are affected by external trade policies and internal supply - demand. It is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with the RB2510 contract in the range of 3100 - 3300 [8]. - **Iron Ore**: With stable supply and strong demand, especially considering the National Day parade expectations, prices are expected to be bullish with a bias, and the 01 contract may face resistance at 840 - 850 [8]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal supply is tight but demand is weakening marginally. Coke supply may be affected by environmental policies, and demand remains strong. Both are expected to be volatile in the short term [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by macroeconomic data and supply - demand fundamentals, prices are expected to be bullish with a bias, and the short - term operating range of Shanghai copper is 78000 - 79500 yuan/ton [11]. - **Aluminum**: Due to factors such as bauxite supply and production capacity changes, and considering the potential impact of trade policies, it is recommended to take long positions on dips [12]. - **Nickel**: With an overall oversupply in the medium and long term, it is recommended to take short positions on rallies [16]. - **Tin**: Supply is gradually improving, but demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to trade within a range, with the SHFE tin 09 contract in the range of 257,000 - 276,000 yuan/ton [17]. - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by US economic data and geopolitical events, prices are expected to have support at lower levels. It is recommended to take long positions on dips [17][18]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: High supply, uncertain export sustainability, and weak fundamentals suggest a short - term bearish trend, with the 01 contract in the range of 5000 - 5200 [20][21]. - **Soda Ash**: Due to supply - side concerns and inventory trends, it is recommended to short the 09 contract [33]. - **Caustic Soda**: With high supply and stable demand, prices are expected to be bullish with a bias, and the 09 contract may find support at 2500 [22]. - **Styrene**: Affected by cost, supply, and demand factors, prices are expected to be volatile, with the reference range of 7100 - 7400 [24]. - **Rubber**: After a price adjustment, with inventory changes and mixed market signals, it is expected to be bullish with a bias, in the range of 15200 - 15600 [27]. - **Urea**: Supply has increased, demand is mixed, and inventory is rising. Prices are expected to be neutral, with support at 1700 - 1720 and resistance at 1820 - 1850 [28][29]. - **Methanol**: Supply has decreased slightly, demand is mixed, and port inventory is rising. Prices are expected to be neutral and may be slightly bearish [30]. - **Polyolefins**: Affected by cost and demand factors, prices are expected to be bearish, with the L2509 contract in the range of 7200 - 7500 and the PP2509 contract in the range of 6900 - 7200 [31]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Global supply - demand conditions have improved, and with the arrival of the peak season, prices are expected to be bullish with a bias [35]. - **Apples**: With low inventory and growth - related impacts, prices are expected to remain high and volatile [36]. - **Jujubes**: Based on the growth situation and market supply, prices are expected to rise with a bias [36]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: Supply pressure remains, but there may be short - term rebounds. It is recommended to take short positions on rallies and consider the long 05, short 03 arbitrage [39]. - **Eggs**: Supply is sufficient in the short term, and it is recommended to take short positions on rallies. If the culling process accelerates, there may be long - entry opportunities for the 12 and 01 contracts [40][41]. - **Corn**: With sufficient supply and expected cost reduction, prices are expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to short on rebounds or hold the 11 - 1 reverse spread [42]. - **Soybean Meal**: US soybean supply - demand is tightening, but domestic supply is abundant in the short term. It is recommended to hold long positions in a rolling manner and reduce positions on rallies [44]. - **Oils and Fats**: Although there are short - term correction risks, the long - term trend is bullish. It is recommended to take long positions on dips and pay attention to the rapeseed oil 11 - 01 reverse spread [50][51].

股指或震荡加剧，国债或 震荡运行 2025-08-18 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 长江期货股份有限公司研究咨询部 研究员：彭 博 执业编号：F3090600 投资咨询号：Z0021839 研究员：张志恒 执业编号：F03102085 投资咨询号：Z0021210 金融期货策略建议 目 录 01 重点数据跟踪 02 01 金融期货策略建议 01 股指策略建议 资料来源：iFinD、华尔街见闻、长江期货 p 股指走势回顾：A股宽基指数周涨幅全部为正数，其中，创业板指数累计涨幅最大，为8.58%，其次的 科创50指数累计涨幅为5.53%。 p 核心观点：周五"特普会"后特朗普称暂未达成协议，提议俄乌"直接达成和平协议" ，而非仅停火协 议；暂无针对中国购买俄油加征关税的计划。欧洲领导人和北约秘书长吕特将与泽连斯基一同与特朗普 周一举行重要会谈。美国7月零售销售环比增0.5%，实际零售销售连续第十个月实现增长。美国8月密 歇根大学消费者信心意外回落，长短期通胀预期攀升。中国央行称将落实落细适度宽松的货币政策，加 强对科技和消费的金融支持。市场强劲，回调一天后便再次走强，央行也 ...

长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 资深研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 碳酸锂周报 2025/8/18 01 周度观点 l 供需状况： 从供应端来看，宁德枧下窝矿山确认停产3个月，中信国安超采被要求停产，7月国内碳酸锂产量环比增加5.8%，6月锂精矿进口 量环比减少5%，6月锂盐进口环比减少16%，预计后续南美锂盐进口量将对供应形成补充。从需求端来看，储能终端需求较好，8月 大型电芯厂排产环比增加7%。宜春和青海地区生产企业均收到矿权转让重审的通知，矿证风险持续存在，供应受到影响，利润修复 背景下矿石提锂持续增产，成本中枢上移。电池厂长协客供比例提高，预计短期碳酸锂价格具有支撑。下游排产超预期，当前矿端减 产情况对整体供应影响频发，下游采购碳酸锂相对谨慎，预计价格延续强势局面，建议谨慎交易，建议持续关注上游企业减产情况和 正极材料厂排产情况。 资料来源：IFIND、SMM、百川盈孚、长江期货有色产 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The price of precious metals has corrected due to factors such as the unexpected US PPI data in July, the meeting between the US and Russia leading to a cooling of risk aversion, the significant shortfall of the US non - farm payrolls data in July, and the sharp decline in the market's expectation of an aggressive interest rate cut in September. However, due to concerns about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical prospects, the precious metal prices are expected to have support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the signal of a September interest rate cut released by Powell at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Symposium [5][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - As of last Friday, the price of US gold closed at $3382 per ounce, down 2.2% for the week. The upper resistance level is $3450, and the lower support level is $3320. The price of US silver closed at $38 per ounce, down 1.3% for the week. The lower support level is $37, and the upper resistance level is $39.5 [5]. 3.2 Weekly View - The price of precious metals has corrected due to multiple factors, including the unexpected US PPI data, the meeting between the US and Russia, and the significant shortfall of the US non - farm payrolls data. The market's expectation of an aggressive interest rate cut in September has cooled significantly. The results of the US trade negotiations with multiple countries have been finalized, and the market's optimistic expectation of a trade agreement between the US and Europe has increased. Although the market expects an interest rate cut in September, Powell's remarks at the interest rate meeting were hawkish. The US tariff policy has basically been finalized, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical prospects, so the precious metal prices are expected to have support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the signal of a September interest rate cut released by Powell at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Symposium [11]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators The report presents data and trends of various overseas macroeconomic indicators such as real interest rates (10 - year TIPS yield), exchange rates (euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar), the US dollar index, yield spreads (10Y - 2Y), gold - silver ratio, the Fed's balance sheet size, and WTI crude oil futures prices, but no specific conclusions are drawn [15][18][19]. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - US CPI annual rate unadjusted in July was 2.7%, expected 2.8%, and the previous value was 2.7%. - US PPI annual rate in July was 3.3%, expected 2.5%, and the previous value was 2.3%. - US retail sales monthly rate in July was 0.5%, expected 0.5%, and the previous value was 0.6%. - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in August was 58.6, expected 62, and the previous value was 61.7 [28]. 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - The meeting between the US and Russia on Friday lasted about two and a half hours, with limited exchanges on specific issues, and no agreement text or specific arrangements were announced. Zelensky will visit Washington on Monday to meet with Trump, and Trump hopes to hold a summit between the US, Russia, and Ukraine before August 22 if the talks go well. - The US PPI rose 0.9% month - on - month in July, significantly higher than the zero growth in June and the market expectation of 0.2%, the largest increase since June 2022. The core PPI in July rose 3.7% year - on - year, expected 2.9%, and the previous value was 2.6%; it rose 0.9% month - on - month, expected 0.2%, and the previous value was flat [30]. 3.6 Inventory - Gold: COMEX inventory increased by 1,597 kg to 1,201,725.17 kg this week, and SHFE inventory increased by 300 kg to 36,045 kg. - Silver: COMEX inventory increased by 32,933.21 kg to 15,786,620.42 kg this week, and SHFE inventory decreased by 16,832 kg to 1,141,555 kg [13]. 3.7 Fund Position - This week, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 220,543 contracts, a decrease of 9,674 contracts from last week. - This week, the net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 41,696 contracts, a decrease of 6,804 contracts from last week [13]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Thursday, August 21, at 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ended August 16 will be released; at 21:45, the preliminary value of the US SPGI Manufacturing PMI for August will be released. - On Friday, August 22, at 22:00, Fed Chairman Powell will give a speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium [41]. Strategy Suggestion Buy on dips after the price correction. Refer to the operating range of 760 - 810 for the Shanghai Gold 10 contract and 8800 - 9500 for the Shanghai Silver 10 contract [13].