1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to move in a sideways pattern [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; shorting on rebounds for glass [1][8][10] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Holding short positions moderately on rallies for copper; strengthening observation for aluminum; suggesting waiting and seeing for nickel; range trading for tin; expecting gold, silver and lithium carbonate to move in a sideways pattern [1][14][20][24] - **Energy Chemicals**: Bullish - biased sideways movement for PVC, caustic soda, styrene, polyolefin, and rubber; shorting on rallies for soda ash; range trading for urea and methanol [1][25][27][32] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Bullish - biased sideways movement for cotton and cotton yarn; expecting apples and jujubes to move in a sideways pattern [1][38][39] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Rolling short positions at high levels for the 05 and 07 contracts of live pigs; shorting cautiously on weak rebounds of near - month contracts for eggs; hedging cautiously on weak rebounds of near - month contracts for corn; paying attention to the support performance at 2900 - 2950 for the 05 contract of soybean meal; bullish - biased sideways movement and rolling long strategy for oils and fats [1][43][45][47] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides trading suggestions and market outlooks for various futures products based on comprehensive analysis of macro - economic factors, geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost - profit conditions. It emphasizes the impact of factors such as the Middle East conflict on global markets, and suggests corresponding trading strategies according to the different characteristics of each product [1][5][15] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Expected to move in a bullish - biased sideways pattern. The willingness of the US and Iran to end the Middle East conflict has led to a sharp rise in US stocks, and stock indices may be bullish - biased [5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to move in a sideways pattern. After the end of the quarter, the proportion of bonds in asset allocation may gradually increase [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Expected to move in a sideways pattern. The total inventory of coking coal has slightly increased, and the inventory transfer of coking coal and coke is smooth [8][9] - **Rebar**: Expected to move in a sideways pattern. The futures price is below the electric - furnace valley - electricity cost, and the demand is still recovering [10] - **Glass**: Expected to be weak. The hype of coal cost has weakened, and the demand in the peak season is not good [11] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level sideways movement. Affected by macro - factors, there is a downward risk, but domestic inventory reduction and the consumption peak season will provide support [14][15] - **Aluminum**: High - level sideways movement. Supply concerns may boost the price, and attention should be paid to the development of the situation [17] - **Nickel**: Sideways movement. The support at the ore end is strong, but the lack of demand and macro - disturbances limit the upward drive [18][19] - **Tin**: Sideways movement. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is in a state of rigid procurement [20] - **Silver and Gold**: Sideways movement. Affected by the Middle East situation and economic data, the medium - term price center has moved up [21][22][23] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound sideways movement. Supply and demand are both increasing, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances [24] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Although the current supply - demand situation is weak, there are opportunities for short - term rebound and long - term industrial upgrading [25] - **Caustic Soda**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supported by spring maintenance and downstream replenishment, exports may increase [27] - **Styrene**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supported by cost and with low inventory pressure, it is expected to maintain de - stocking [28] - **Polyolefin**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supported by cost and with marginal improvement in supply - demand [29][30] - **Rubber**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. In the short term, it is in a game between synthetic rubber support and inventory pressure [31] - **Urea**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supply is at a high level, and demand is supported by agricultural and compound fertilizer needs, with smooth de - stocking [32][33] - **Methanol**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. The supply - demand situation is relatively stable, and inventory has decreased [34] - **Soda Ash**: Shorting on rallies. Supply is in excess, and the price may continue to be under pressure [35][36] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Global cotton supply is increasing, but domestic consumption is strong, and the price of chemical fiber has a positive impact [38] - **Apples**: Sideways movement. The market is polarized, with good - quality goods being in high demand [39] - **Jujubes**: Sideways movement. The raw material acquisition in the production area is based on quality, and the enthusiasm of merchants to restock is not high [41] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: Bottom - building sideways movement. In the short term, the supply exceeds the demand, and in the long term, the price may rise after the supply tightens [43] - **Eggs**: Bearish - biased sideways movement. In the short term, the price increase is weak, and in the long term, it is in a state of bottom - building [45] - **Corn**: Range - bound sideways movement. The supply - demand situation is relatively balanced, and the near - month contract can be hedged on weak rebounds [47] - **Soybean Meal**: High - level sideways movement. The 05 contract should pay attention to the support at around 2900 [47] - **Oils and Fats**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supported by palm oil de - stocking and the B50 plan in Indonesia, but the supply will be relatively loose in the second quarter [53]

期货市场交易指引 2026 年 03 月 31 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 反弹空 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 逢高适度持空 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 震荡运行 | | ◆白银： | 震荡运行 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆纯碱： | 逢高做空 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆橡胶： | 逢低多配不追高 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏强震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 05、07 反弹受限，高位 ...

长江期货贵金属周报 01 行情回顾：上周 2026/3/30 【产业服务总部|有色产业中心】 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 目录 01 行情回顾 02 周度观点 03 海外宏观经济指标 04 当周重要经济数据 05 当周重要宏观事件和政策 06 库存 07 基金持仓 08 本周关注重点 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 2025-01-02 2025-02-02 2025-03-02 2025-04-02 2025-05-02 2025-06-02 2025-07-02 2025-08-02 2025-09-02 2025-10-02 2025-11-02 2025-12-02 2026-01-02 2026-02-02 2026-03-02 美国公布和谈方案，市场风险偏好小幅修复，伊朗继续 关闭霍尔木兹海峡，黄金价格反弹。截至上周五，美黄 金报收4521美元/盎司，周内上涨0.7%，关注上方压力 位4700，下方支撑位4400。 美黄金连：日线 美白银连：日线 17 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Pig**: The supply pressure remains high, and the futures price faces resistance in rebounding. In the short - term, the pig price will continue to fluctuate at the bottom. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig price will face resistance in the first half of the year, and there may be a low - level recovery in the second half, but the price increase depends on the extent of capacity reduction [4][51]. - **Egg**: The demand for stocking is slowing down, and the futures price faces resistance in rebounding. In the short - term, the spot price is strong, but the increase is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure is difficult to relieve quickly, and the market should not be overly optimistic [5][80]. - **Corn**: The grain supply is gradually becoming more abundant, and the futures price is under pressure at high levels. In the short - term, the price is under pressure to fluctuate at high levels. In the medium - to - long - term, the price increase is limited, and there is a risk of a phased correction [6][112]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pig 3.1.1 Period and Spot Ends - As of March 27, the national spot price was 9.38 yuan/kg, down 0.49 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 9.48 yuan/kg, down 0.52 yuan/kg from last week; the main pig futures contract 2605 closed at 9965 yuan/ton, down 255 yuan/ton from last week; the basis of the 05 contract was - 485 yuan/ton, down 265 yuan/ton from last week. The national pig price continued to decline this week, and the futures price followed the spot price down, with a late - week rebound under the influence of position limits. The spot price stopped falling and rebounded over the weekend [4][51]. 3.1.2 Supply End - In December 2025, the number of fertile sows was 39.61 million, still 3.11 million away from the normal reserve target of 36.5 million. With the increase in fattening losses and the decline in piglet profits, and the policy requirements, the industry capacity reduction will accelerate. The supply pressure in the first half of 2026 is still high, and the supply will decrease marginally after July. The proportion of large - pig sales increased, and the average weight of pig sales increased slightly and was at a high level in the same period. The planned sales volume of key provincial enterprises in March increased month - on - month, and the sales pressure in April is still high [4][51]. 3.1.3 Demand End - The weekly slaughter rate and slaughter volume continued to rise. The low price increased the slaughter volume, but the terminal fresh - sales demand was weak, the fresh - sales rate of slaughterhouses decreased, and the frozen - product storage ratio increased. Consumption is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking and the frozen - product storage of slaughterhouses [4][51]. 3.1.4 Cost End - The prices of piglets and binary fertile sows fell significantly, the losses of self - breeding and self - fattening and purchasing piglets for fattening increased, and the cost of self - breeding and self - fattening 5 - month - old fattening pigs increased. The national pig - grain ratio fell below 5:1, and policy measures such as state reserve purchases may be taken, but the current supply is still relatively loose [4][51]. 3.1.5 Weekly Summary - Although the short - term supply reduction by farmers provides some support, the sales pressure in April is still high, and the pig price is under pressure. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig price will face resistance in the first half of the year and may recover in the second half, but the price increase depends on the capacity reduction [4][51]. 3.1.6 Strategy Suggestion - For the 05 and 07 contracts, short at high levels; for the 09, 11, and 01 contracts, be cautious about bottom - fishing, and breeding enterprises can hedge at profitable levels [4][51]. 3.2 Egg 3.2.1 Period and Spot Ends - As of March 27, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 3.39 yuan/jin, up 0.12 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main egg - selling areas was 3.38 yuan/jin, up 0.14 yuan/jin from last Friday; the main egg futures contract 2605 closed at 3502 yuan/500 kg, up 93 yuan/500 kg from last Friday; the basis of the main contract was - 322 yuan/500 kg, up 17 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The national egg price continued to rise slightly, and the futures price rebounded [5][80]. 3.2.2 Supply End - The number of laying hens in production is still at a high level in the same period. The number of newly - opened laying hens is stable. The number of old - hen sales increased significantly this week, but the proportion of hens to be culled is low, and the capacity reduction is slow. The inventory pressure is low in the short - term, but the supply pressure is difficult to relieve quickly in the medium - to - long - term [5][80]. 3.2.3 Demand End - The egg demand continued to recover slightly this week. The sales volume in the sales areas increased slightly, and the Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking provided phased support. However, the low - price pork has a substitution effect on egg demand, and the terminal household consumption is still in the off - season [5][80]. 3.2.4 Weekly Summary - The supply pressure is difficult to relieve quickly, and the demand recovery is slow. The spot price is strong in the short - term, but the increase is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand pattern is difficult to improve fundamentally [5][80]. 3.2.5 Strategy Suggestion - In the short - term, be cautious about chasing high prices, and pay attention to the pressure at 3550 - 3600 for the 05 contract. In the medium - to - long - term, wait for the clear inflection point [5][80]. 3.3 Corn 3.3.1 Period and Spot Ends - As of March 27, the平仓 price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2380 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from last Friday; the main corn futures contract 2605 closed at 2369 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton from last Friday; the basis of the main contract was 11 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from last Friday. The national corn price was adjusted narrowly at a high level, and the futures price continued to fluctuate weakly [6][112]. 3.3.2 Supply End - The supply shortage has been further alleviated, and the supply is becoming more abundant. The grain - selling progress in Northeast and North China has continued to improve, and the grain rights have gradually transferred to traders. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises and northern ports has increased, and the supply pressure has been significantly relieved [6][112]. 3.3.3 Demand End - The replenishment rhythm of deep - processing enterprises has slowed down, and feed procurement has remained cautious. The deep - processing capacity utilization rate and consumption have increased, but the inventory is still at a low level in the same period. Feed enterprises have sufficient inventory, and the procurement intensity has slowed down, with wheat substitution [6][112]. 3.3.4 Weekly Summary - The corn market's trading rhythm has slowed down, the supply has become more abundant, and the demand has limited growth. In the short - term, the price is under pressure at high levels, and in the medium - to - long - term, there is a risk of a phased correction [6][112]. 3.3.5 Strategy Suggestion - In the short - term, operate cautiously in the range of [2340 - 2390]. In the medium - to - long - term, short on rebounds [6][112].

2026-03-30 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 产业服务总部 | 有色中心 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 主要品种观点综述 旺季需求回升，但宏观承压 有色金属整体延续调整走势 有色金属基础周报 | | 走势状态 | 行情观点 | 操作建议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 上周沪镍震荡上涨。镍矿方面，印尼镍矿供需整体偏紧，短期矿端支撑叠加原料偏紧，镍价边际坚挺。当前印尼斋月已经结束，近期关注 | | | 镍 | 震荡反弹 | 印尼镍矿配额动态和雨季对镍矿发运造成影响。精炼镍方面，供应端压力不减，市场整体资源充足，需求端表现一般，库存持续垒积。原 | 逢低做多 | | | | 料方面MHP生产有所受阻，硫磺偏紧预期下市场报价所有上涨，对应镍价成本维持强势。镍铁方面，需求端不锈钢表现疲软，下游钢厂对原 | | | | | 料端压价心态凸显。随着钢厂复产持续，而印尼镍铁供应增量受限，镍铁价格预计整体偏强。不锈钢方面，不锈钢价格先扬后抑，终端需 | | | | | 求不足，下游刚需采买，库存消化 ...

铜周报：中东局势愈演愈烈，铜价低位去库加快 2026-3-30 01 主要观点策略 02 期现市场及持仓情况 03 基本面数据 目 录 01 主要观点策略 01 上周行情回顾 p 上周沪铜小幅回调。截至3月27日收至95930元/吨，周环比1.26%。伊朗拒绝美国停战方案，中东地缘冲突局势不确定性扰动持续 影响市场，市场对美联储年内降息预期降低，美元指数走强压制铜价。基本面，矿端紧缺未出现实质性修复，铜精矿现货加工费继续 维持历史低位。部分企业已释放减产信号，二季度国内冶炼企业将迎来检修高峰期。铜价回调下游新增订单增长开工增加，国内铜库 存继续去库，铜价前期大幅下跌后，国内社库大幅去库以及铜消费旺季来临将对铜价形成支撑。 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 110000 120000 26-03-27 26-03-23 26-03-17 26-03-11 26-03-05 26-02-27 26-02-13 26-02-09 26-02-03 26-01-28 26-01-22 26-01-16 26-01-12 26-01-06 25-12-29 25-12-23 25-12-17 ...

2026/3/30 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部|有色产业中心】 汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 碳酸锂周报 01 周度观点 l 供需状况： 供应端：据百川盈孚统计，上周碳酸锂产量环比增加245吨至24610吨，2月产量环比减17.6%。宁德枧下窝矿山仍未复产，津巴布韦 矿业部宣布暂停所有原矿及锂精矿出口，宜春矿证扰动仍存。三季度澳矿实现对成本的管控，澳矿进一步降本空间极为有限。海外进 口方面，2026年1-2月国内锂辉石进口总量约为139万吨:1月进口83.2万实物吨，环比上月增加近6%，同比增加41%，折合碳酸锂当 量约8.4万吨;2月进口55.8万实物吨，环比上月减少33%，同比约减少2%，折合碳酸锂当量约5.0万吨。2月中国进口碳酸锂26427吨， 环比减少2%，同比增加114%。 成本：进口锂辉石精矿CIF价周度环比持平，碳酸锂冶炼周度开工率上升至约57%。锂辉石开工率走平，维持高位，整体产能利用率 弹性较大。 需求端：3月整体排产环比增加，产业链处于供需两旺格局。2月，我国动力和储能电池合计产量为141.6 ...

长江期货粕类油脂周报 2026-03-30 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 01 02 油脂：中东紧张局势扰动，期价高位震荡 目 录 豆粕：豆粕：供需宽松与成本抬升，价格 重心上移 01 豆粕：供需宽松与成本抬升， 价格重心上移 01 豆粕：供需宽松与成本抬升，价格重心上移 资料来源：同花顺 USDA 长江期货饲料养殖中心 ◆ 期现端：截止3月19日，华东现货报价3160元/吨，周度报价下跌130元/吨；M2605合约收盘至2937元/吨，周度下跌92元/吨；基差报 价05+230元/吨，基差报价下跌40元/吨。周度国内现货供需转松，油厂催提下现货价转弱，基差跟随转弱。巴西3月装船加快，05合 约承压下行。 ◆ 供应端：2025/26年度全球丰产兑现，3月USDA报告预估全球大豆产量4.27亿吨，同比基本持平。其中巴西大豆产量1.8亿吨，阿根 廷大豆产量4800万吨，丰产格局延续。USDA2月展望论坛，预估2026/27年度美豆种植面积为8500万英亩，同比增 ...

2026-3-30 【产业服务总部 | 黑色金属团队】 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 01 投资策略：反弹空 玻璃：成本情绪减弱 关注反弹做空 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 反弹空 p 风险提示 1、宏观情绪扰动（上行风险） 2、高位库存（下行风险） 02 行情回顾：期货下跌 900 950 1,000 1,050 1,100 1,150 1,200 1,250 1,300 12-15 12-2 12-29 01-05 01-12 01-19 01-26 02-02 02-09 02-16 02-23 03-02 03-09 03-16 03-23 p 主要逻辑 行情回顾：3月份玻璃期货先涨后跌，周线报收上影小阴线。虽然美伊冲突仍在持续，但煤炭成本炒作情绪已经减弱，叠 加旺季需求成色不佳，价格冲高后弱势运行。基差方面，沙河安全-124元/吨，湖北明弘48元/吨，由负转正，基差回升，考验 期现商出货能力。月间方面，5-9价差-99元/吨，在接近22年的历史低位水平后出现回调，原因在于资金开始向09合约移仓， 但近远月矛盾仍存，故59正反套 ...

长江期货尿素周报： 传统旺季 工农业需求支撑仍存 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 尿素：传统旺季 工农业需求支撑仍存 01 1 市场变化：尿素盘面价格先跌后涨，现货价格大稳小动。3月27日尿素2605合约收盘价1877元/吨，较上周上调36元 /吨，涨幅1.96%，期间最高1903元/吨，最低1833元/吨。尿素现货河南市场日均价1853元/吨，较上周上调3元/吨， 涨幅0.16%。基差：尿素主力基差走弱，3月27日河南市场主力基差 -36元/吨，周度基差运行区间（-46）—（-25） 元/吨。价差：尿素5-9价差走弱，3月27日5-9价差-51元/吨，周度运行区间（-64）—（-51）元/吨。 2 基本面变化：供应端尿素开工负荷率91.43%，较上周降低0.78个百分点，其中气头企业开工负荷率79.08%，较上周 提升1.16个百分点，尿素日均产量21.08万吨。成本端无烟煤市场价格偏强调整，截至3月26日，山西晋城S0.4-0.5 无烟洗小块含税价910-950元/吨，较上周同期收盘价格重心上涨25元/吨。山西阳泉地区S1-1.5无烟洗块含税价 810-870元/吨，较 ...