原油月报：OPEC+增减产计划主导现阶段油价中枢-2025-03-25

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - The OPEC+ production adjustment plan is the dominant factor influencing current oil price levels [2][5]. - In March 2025, oil prices exhibited a V-shaped trend, influenced by several key events including OPEC+'s announcement of a production increase and geopolitical developments [2][3]. Summary by Sections OPEC Production and Market Dynamics - OPEC+ announced a production increase of 138,000 barrels per day starting in April, marking the first monthly increase in over two years, which heightened supply concerns and exerted downward pressure on oil prices [2][3]. - The geopolitical landscape showed signs of easing with U.S.-Ukraine negotiations and new sanctions on Iran, contributing to a slight rebound in oil prices [2][3]. - OPEC+ countries, including Russia and Iraq, have implemented new compensation production cuts to address overproduction, which is expected to provide short-term support for oil prices [2][5]. Oil Price Forecasts - The EIA predicts that global oil supply-demand dynamics will remain tight until mid-2025, with Brent oil prices expected to rise from $70 per barrel to $75 per barrel by Q3 2025, before facing downward pressure from increased production by OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries [7]. - The report anticipates an average Brent oil price of around $75 per barrel in the first half of 2025, with a potential decline to a midpoint of $70 per barrel in the second half of the year due to increased production and geopolitical developments [7]. Global Oil Demand Projections - OPEC forecasts global oil demand to reach 105.2 million barrels per day in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 1.45 million barrels per day, driven primarily by growth in emerging markets like China and India [24][25]. - The report highlights that the demand for refined products, particularly jet fuel and gasoline, is expected to continue growing, supported by recovery in transportation and tourism sectors [24][25]. Non-OPEC Supply Trends - Non-OPEC countries are projected to increase oil production significantly, with the EIA estimating a year-on-year increase of approximately 187,000 barrels per day in 2024, primarily driven by the U.S., Canada, and Brazil [18][26]. - The report indicates that the overall global oil supply is expected to exceed demand by about 600,000 barrels per day in 2025, reflecting a shift in the balance of supply and demand dynamics [36][40].