Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro data remains stable, but the market's confidence in macro - economic recovery is weak. More macro - support policies are expected to be gradually implemented. The upside logic of Treasury bond futures is fully priced, and the downside requires economic recovery. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market for Treasury bond futures in the future, with increased volatility, and caution is advised [6]. - The current macro data helps reverse the market's pessimistic expectations about the macro - economy. More macro - support policies will be gradually implemented, and the main index valuations are at a low level. It is still optimistic about the subsequent trend of stock index futures, and it is recommended to consider buying on dips [8]. - The medium - and long - term logic of precious metals remains strong. The weakening of US economic data and international political and trade uncertainties provide new upward drivers. Holders of previous long positions can continue to hold [10]. - The downward trend of the real estate industry has not reversed, and weak demand suppresses rebar futures prices. However, new macro - increment policies and the upcoming peak demand season may support prices. The price valuation of steel is at a low level, and there are signs of a bottom -ing and rebound. Investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities and set stop - profits in time [12]. - The increase in iron ore demand and the decline in port inventory support the price. The valuation is relatively high, and there are signs of a bottom -ing and rebound. Investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities and set stop - profits in time [14]. - The market sentiment of coking coal has improved slightly, and the fundamentals of coke have shown continuous improvement. There are signs of a bottom -ing and rebound. Investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities and set stop - profits in time [15]. - The supply of ferroalloys is still high, and the demand is weak. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed. For manganese silicon, consider deep out - of - money call options in the low - level range; for silicon iron, short - sellers in the bottom range can consider exiting [17][18]. - Crude oil is mainly in an oscillatory rebound trend. Consider taking a long position in the main crude oil contract [19][21]. - Fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil and oscillates upward. The cost end provides support, and high - sulfur fuel oil may face supply shortages. Consider taking a long position in the main fuel oil contract [22][23]. - The supply of polyolefins will increase, the inventory is high, and the demand recovers slowly. The market is expected to be in an oscillatory and slightly upward trend. Consider taking a long position in the PP and L main contracts [24][25][26]. - For synthetic rubber, the start - up loss has narrowed, the start - up rate has rebounded significantly, and the inventory has been destocked. Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see approach [27][28]. - For natural rubber, the previous negative factors have basically disappeared, and the downward space is limited. Wait for new fundamental drivers and consider taking a long position [29][30][31]. - The core contradiction of PVC lies in the game between new capacity release and weak recovery demand. It is expected to bottom out and have upward potential. The downward space is limited [32][33]. - For urea, the market has expectations for exports, but it needs further confirmation. The high daily output in March and winter - stored goods put pressure on the market. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [34][35]. - For PX, the short - term cost end oscillates upward, and the supply - demand structure continues to improve. It is expected to adjust in a slightly warmer oscillatory manner. Consider participating in the low - valuation range and pay attention to changes in crude oil prices and the supply end [36]. - For PTA, the short - term supply - demand situation has improved, and the support has been enhanced. It is recommended to consider buying in the low - level range and pay attention to supply - demand changes [37]. - For ethylene glycol, the inventory is at a high level and difficult to destock, suppressing the price. It is expected to be under pressure, and the rebound height may be limited [38]. - For short - fiber, the downstream demand is gradually recovering, but the cost support is limited. It is expected to oscillate and adjust, mainly following the cost end [39]. - For bottle - grade chips, the domestic demand is weak, but the export maintains a high growth rate. The supply - demand fundamentals lack a driving force, and it is expected to follow the cost end [40]. - For soda ash, the supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the market is mainly demand - driven in the short term [42]. - For glass, the overall supply is still abundant, and the market situation depends on downstream consumption, cold - repair of production lines, and real - estate policies [43][44][45]. - For caustic soda, the supply may have some elasticity, but the downstream demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate [46]. - For pulp, the supply may be supported during the maintenance season of large manufacturers, but the downstream demand has difficulty accepting high - priced pulp. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [47][48]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply continues to increase, the consumption has improved, and the inventory is accumulating. There is significant upward pressure, and attention should be paid to upstream mine disturbances [49]. - For copper, the strengthening of the US dollar and high prices may restrict the upward movement of copper prices. Caution is advised when chasing up [50][51][52]. - For aluminum, the alumina supply is loose, and the aluminum consumption is expected to be good. The aluminum price is expected to continue to adjust [53][54]. - For zinc, the supply is expected to increase, and the consumption is recovering. The zinc price is expected to continue to oscillate within a range [55][56]. - For lead, the traditional off - season and high prices are not conducive to consumption, and the lead price is under pressure [57][58]. - For tin, there are supply disturbances, but the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate [59]. - For nickel, the cost has support, but the demand for high - priced products is low, and the supply - demand surplus pattern may continue. The upward space is limited [60]. - For industrial silicon, the supply is expected to be in surplus in March, and the price may remain in a low - level oscillation. For polysilicon, the demand is strong, and the price is expected to rise steadily [61]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, the Brazilian soybean harvest is nearing completion, and the supply is expected to increase. The soybean meal price may be under pressure, and the soybean oil price may continue to oscillate. Consider a wait - and - see approach and try long positions in the bottom - support range [62][63]. - For palm oil, the export volume has declined, and the inventory is at a low level. Consider reducing short positions and setting stop - losses [64][65]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, the impact on rapeseed meal is greater than that on rapeseed oil. Consider the opportunity to expand the spread after the narrowing of the soybean - rapeseed spread [66][67][68]. - For cotton, the medium - and long - term supply - demand of the outer market is loose, and the domestic supply is sufficient. The downstream demand is average, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after a rebound [69][70][71]. - For sugar, there is some support for the outer - market raw sugar price, and the domestic supply pressure is not large. Consider buying on dips [73][74][75]. - For apples, consumption is better than expected, and the inventory is low. The short - term spot price is expected to be strong. Consider buying on dips [76]. - For live pigs, the supply - demand is in a stalemate in the short term. Consider short - selling near the semi - annual line resistance [77][79]. - For eggs, the supply is expected to increase in March, and it is in the off - season of consumption. Consider selling deep out - of - money put options and short - selling in the far - month contracts [80][81]. - For corn, the domestic supply surplus has eased slightly, and there is support at the bottom. However, there is still short - term supply pressure, and it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach [82][83]. - For logs, the current inventory is relatively neutral, and there is a risk of a rapid decline if the reality is weaker than expected [84]. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 346 billion yuan on the day. The 1 - 2 month national general public budget revenue decreased by 1.6% year - on - year, and the expenditure increased by 3.4% year - on - year [5]. - The central bank adjusted the MLF operation to multiple - price winning bids, which is expected to reduce bank liability costs. The macro - policy environment is positive, but the market's confidence in economic recovery is weak. It is expected that Treasury bond futures will have no trend - based market, with increased volatility [6]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The current macro data helps reverse the market's pessimistic expectations, and more macro - support policies will be implemented. The main index valuations are at a low level, and it is recommended to consider buying on dips [8]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold and silver futures prices rose. The eurozone's March manufacturing PMI reached a 26 - month high. The Fed paused rate cuts, and the US imposed tariffs on multiple countries, increasing market risk - aversion sentiment. The medium - and long - term logic of precious metals is strong, and holders of previous long positions can continue to hold [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. The real estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, and weak demand suppresses prices. However, new macro - policies and the peak demand season may support prices. The price valuation is at a low level, and there are signs of a bottom -ing and rebound. Investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities [12]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded significantly. The increase in demand and the decline in port inventory support the price. The valuation is relatively high, and there are signs of a bottom -ing and rebound. Investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded significantly. The market sentiment of coking coal has improved, and the fundamentals of coke have shown continuous improvement. There are signs of a bottom -ing and rebound. Investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities [15]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the manganese silicon and silicon iron futures prices rose. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak while the supply is still high. Consider deep out - of - money call options for manganese silicon in the low - level range and short - sellers in the bottom range of silicon iron can consider exiting [17][18]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated slightly. The US CFTC data showed a reduction in net long positions. The number of US oil and gas rigs increased. OPEC+ announced a new compensatory production - cut plan. The negotiation between Ukraine and the US on a cease - fire agreement is attracting global attention. OPEC+ will increase production in April, but the compensatory production - cut measures offset the concern about production increase. The price is mainly in an oscillatory rebound trend, and consider taking a long position [19][20][21]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and oscillated upward. The Singapore and Fujairah fuel oil inventories increased. The cost end oscillates upward, and high - sulfur fuel oil may face supply shortages. Consider taking a long position [22][23]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the polyethylene market price adjusted, and the polypropylene futures oscillated upward. The supply will increase, the inventory is high, and the demand recovers slowly. The market is expected to be in an oscillatory and slightly upward trend. Consider taking a long position in the PP and L main contracts [24][25][26]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. The start - up loss has narrowed, the start - up rate has rebounded significantly, and the inventory has been destocked. Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see approach [27][28]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The previous negative factors have basically disappeared, and the downward space is limited. Wait for new fundamental drivers and consider taking a long position [29][30][31]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures rose. The core contradiction lies in the game between new capacity release and weak recovery demand. It is expected to bottom out and have upward potential. The downward space is limited [32][33]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures fell slightly. The market has expectations for exports, but it needs further confirmation. The high daily output in March and winter - stored goods put pressure on the market. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [34][35]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures rose. The short - term cost end oscillates upward, and the supply - demand structure continues to improve. It is expected to adjust in a slightly warmer oscillatory manner. Consider participating in the low - valuation range and pay attention to changes in crude oil prices and the supply end [36]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The short - term supply - demand situation has improved, and the support has been enhanced. It is recommended to consider buying in the low - level range and pay attention to supply - demand changes [37]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The inventory is at a high level and difficult to destock, suppressing the price. It is expected to be under pressure, and the rebound height may be limited [38]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The downstream demand is gradually recovering, but the cost support is limited. It is expected to oscillate and adjust, mainly following the cost end [39]. Bottle - Grade Chips - On the previous trading day, bottle - grade chips futures rose. The domestic demand is weak, but the export maintains a high growth rate. The supply - demand fundamentals lack a driving force, and it is expected to follow the cost end [40]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures rose. The supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the market is mainly demand - driven in the short term [42]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures rose. The overall supply is still abundant, and the market situation depends on downstream consumption, cold - repair of production lines, and real - estate policies [43][44][45]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose. The supply may have some elasticity, but the downstream demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate [46]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures fell. Some large paper mills have maintenance plans, and the downstream demand has difficulty accepting high - priced pulp. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [47][48]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The supply continues to increase, the consumption has improved, and the inventory is accumulating. There is significant upward pressure, and attention should be paid to upstream mine disturbances [49]. Copper - On the previous trading day, copper futures rose. The Fed maintained the interest rate range, and the US economic data was mostly optimistic. The copper concentrate processing fee decreased, and the electrolytic copper production may decline. The traditional consumption season is coming, but high prices may limit the increase in processing enterprise start - up rates. The dollar strengthening and high prices may restrict the upward movement of copper prices. Caution is advised when chasing up [50][51][52]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, aluminum futures fell slightly, and alumina futures rose. The import of bauxite provides the main increment, and the alumina supply is loose. The electrolytic aluminum production increment is small, and the consumption has rigid support. The aluminum price is expected to continue to adjust [53][54]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, zinc futures rose. The zinc concentrate processing fee is likely to rise, and the supply is expected to increase. The consumption is recovering, and the zinc price is expected to continue to oscillate within a range [55][56]. Lead - On the previous trading day, lead futures fell. The lead concentrate processing fee remained stable, and a large - scale primary lead smelter has a maintenance plan. The traditional off - season and high prices are not conducive to consumption, and the lead price is under pressure [57][58]. Tin - On the previous trading day, tin futures fell. There are supply disturbances, but the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate [59]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, nickel futures fell. The cost has support, but the demand for high - priced products is low, and the supply - demand surplus pattern may continue. The upward space is limited [60]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - On the previous trading day,
西南期货早间评论-2025-03-25
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-03-25 02:38