Bank of China Securities·2025-03-25 02:23Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The new ship orders for dry bulk carriers have dropped to a near historical low, with a 92% year-on-year decline in the first two months of 2025, marking the lowest level in at least 30 years. Factors such as low freight rates, high new ship costs, long delivery times, and market uncertainty are suppressing new orders [3][15] - South Korea plans to implement a phased visa exemption for Chinese group tourists, with the International Air Transport Association (IATA) projecting that China will become the world's largest air passenger market by 2030 [3][16][17] - In February 2025, the express delivery business volume reached 13.59 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 58.8%, indicating a strong recovery and robust market demand in the industry [3][25] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Hot Events - The U.S. Trade Representative proposed fees on ships built in China, leading to a significant drop in new dry bulk carrier orders [14] - South Korea's phased visa exemption for Chinese tourists aims to boost tourism and economic cooperation [16] - February's express delivery volume reached 13.59 billion pieces, reflecting a strong recovery in the postal industry [24][25] 2. Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - Air logistics: Stable capacity on routes from China to the Asia-Pacific region [28] - Shipping ports: Container shipping price index decreased while dry bulk freight rates increased [42] - Express logistics: February express delivery volume increased by 58.75% year-on-year [54] - Air travel: Daily average international flights increased by 21.09% year-on-year in March [84] - Road and rail: Nationwide highway truck traffic increased by 3.45% [98] 3. Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping and China Merchants Energy Shipping [5] - Attention to low-altitude economy investment opportunities, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [5] - Investment opportunities in cruise and ferry sectors, recommending Bohai Ferry and Straits Shares [5] - E-commerce and express delivery investment opportunities, recommending SF Express and Jitu Express [5] - Investment opportunities in the aviation sector, recommending China Southern Airlines and Spring Airlines [5]