宏观经济点评：狭义财政支出更“用力”

Revenue Insights - In the first two months of 2025, national public budget revenue was 43,856 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.6%[3] - Tax revenue decreased by 3.9% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue growth slowed significantly from 94% in December to 11%[3] - Individual income tax saw a substantial increase of 27% year-on-year, influenced by a low base effect from 2024[3] Expenditure Analysis - Public fiscal expenditure reached 45,096 billion yuan in January-February 2025, growing by 3.4% year-on-year, significantly outpacing revenue growth[4] - Expenditure in the first two months accounted for approximately 15.2% of the annual target, slightly lower than 2024 but higher than the average of the past three years[4] - Social welfare and technology expenditures grew at a faster pace, with education and social security spending increasing by 8% and 7% respectively[4] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The annual budget draft anticipates a 3.7% growth in tax revenue for 2025, although the first two months did not meet this target[4] - The government aims to reduce reliance on non-tax revenue, indicating a shift in fiscal strategy[4] - Special bond issuance has accelerated, with 9,148 billion yuan issued by March 24, 2025, representing about 20% of the annual target[5] Market Implications - The decline in land transfer revenue, down 16% year-on-year, suggests ongoing challenges in the real estate market despite previous improvements[5] - The focus of fiscal spending is shifting towards "benefiting people's livelihoods and promoting consumption," indicating a strategic pivot in government priorities[5] - Risks include potential economic downturns and the possibility of policy execution falling short of expectations[5]