2025年1-2月财政数据点评：如何理解开年财政个税高增长？

Revenue Analysis - In January-February 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 43,856 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%[4] - Tax revenue amounted to 36,349 billion yuan, down 3.9% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 11% to 7,507 billion yuan[4] Personal Income Tax Insights - The personal income tax saw a significant year-on-year increase of 26.7%, the highest growth rate in nearly 10 months, largely influenced by the timing of the Spring Festival[4] - The early Spring Festival this year compared to last year resulted in a front-loaded peak in personal income tax collection[4] Tax Revenue Contributors - The securities transaction stamp duty and value-added tax provided strong support to fiscal revenue, benefiting from policy initiatives and increased market activity[5] - Corporate income tax experienced a negative growth of -10.4%, indicating ongoing challenges for businesses[5] Expenditure Trends - Infrastructure-related fiscal spending decreased significantly, with a year-on-year decline of -6.2% in January-February 2025, compared to a growth of 17.9% in the same period of 2024[6] - Spending on technology, education, social security, and employment remained robust, with growth rates of 10.5%, 7.7%, and 5.5% respectively[6] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include policies falling short of expectations, unexpected changes in the domestic economic landscape, and fluctuations in exports[6]