2月财政数据点评：居民和企业所得税增速为何背离？

Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Taxation - In January-February 2025, national general public budget revenue was CNY 4.4 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%[6] - Tax revenue decreased by 3.9%, while non-tax revenue increased by 11%[7] - Personal income tax grew by 26.7%, contributing 2 percentage points to fiscal revenue, primarily due to a low base in 2024[7] - Corporate income tax fell by 10.4%, dragging down fiscal revenue by 2.4 percentage points, indicating ongoing challenges in corporate profitability recovery[7] Group 2: Fiscal Expenditure and Investment - National general public budget expenditure reached CNY 4.5 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%[6] - Social security, education, and health spending accounted for approximately 43.1% of total expenditure, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous year[7] - Infrastructure-related spending decreased by 5.6% year-on-year, contributing to a 1.2 percentage point drag on overall fiscal expenditure[7] Group 3: Land Sales and Government Funds - Government fund revenue was CNY 0.6 trillion, down 10.7% year-on-year, with land transfer revenue declining by 15.7%[7] - The pace of government fund expenditure was slower than in previous years, with a cumulative completion rate of 10.2%[7] Group 4: Fiscal Challenges and Future Outlook - The broad fiscal revenue and expenditure growth rates were -2.9% and 2.9%, respectively, falling short of the annual budget targets of 0.2% and 9.3%[7] - The government plans to issue CNY 5.66 trillion in deficits for 2025, with a broad deficit rate projected at approximately 8.4%[7] - Future fiscal policies may need to be adjusted to address ongoing revenue pressures and support economic stability[7]