中辉期货螺纹钢早报-2025-03-25

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for specific varieties, it gives the following ratings: - Weak and volatile: Rebar, Hot - rolled coil [1] - Positive spread participation: Iron ore [1] - Weak in the medium - term: Coke [1] - Weak operation: Coking coal, Manganese silicon, Ferrosilicon [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The demand for steel has not improved, and it will operate weakly in the medium - term. The iron ore market is affected by the production cuts of Xinjiang steel mills and will rebound with the finished products. Coke lacks upward drivers and will maintain a weak trend. Coking coal has a loose supply outlook and will run weakly. The fundamentals of ferroalloys are weak, and market sentiment should be monitored [3][7][10][13][16] 3. Summary by Variety Steel (Rebar and Hot - rolled coil) - Core view: Weak and volatile, with the medium - term outlook remaining weak due to unimproved demand [1][3] - Main logic: For rebar, there are news of some steel mills controlling production, but it's not policy - driven, and full - scale production cuts are unlikely. Steel mills have positive profits and high production enthusiasm, as evidenced by the significant increase in hot - metal production. The short - term rebound needs continuous improvement in demand. For hot - rolled coil, supply and demand have both increased, inventory has decreased month - on - month, but anti - dumping affects market expectations, and it lacks continuous upward drivers [1][4] - Price range: Rebar [3150, 3250]; Hot - rolled coil [3350, 3450] [1] Iron Ore - Core view: Participate in positive spreads [1] - Main logic: Shipping has increased month - on - month, arrivals have slightly decreased, and port inventory has slightly increased. The 10% production cut of four major steel mills in Xinjiang is expected to reduce daily crude - steel output by about 0.2 million tons, with a small overall impact. Short - term ore prices will strengthen with steel prices [1][8] - Price range: [750, 810] [1] Coke - Core view: Weak in the medium - term [1] - Main logic: Coke spot prices are continuously being lowered, and coke - enterprise profits are in continuous losses. However, coke production has increased. Hot - metal production has increased significantly month - on - month, and coke inventory has decreased. But the overall weakness of the black - series products and the unresolved supply contradiction of coking coal drag down coke prices [1][11] - Price range: [1570, 1640] [1] Coking Coal - Core view: Weak operation [1] - Main logic: Coal production from January to February has increased significantly year - on - year, and supply pressure is rising. Although Mongolian coal customs clearance has decreased recently, domestic production has rebounded rapidly. Coking enterprises produce as needed, and coking - coal demand is weak. Overall inventory is high, and upstream sales pressure is large [1][14] - Price range: [1000, 1050] [1] Ferroalloys (Manganese silicon and Ferrosilicon) - Core view: Weak operation, and market sentiment should be monitored [16] - Main logic: For manganese silicon, production areas are operating at a high level, and downstream demand growth is less than expected. Although manganese - ore quotes have adjusted, ore - price decline is limited. The delivery - warehouse inventory has reached nearly 570,000 tons, and supply pressure remains. For ferrosilicon, production cuts and maintenance in some areas have increased, but the impact on supply is limited. There are news of foreign ferrosilicon price cuts, and export competition may intensify [1][18] - Price range: Manganese silicon [6000, 6350]; Ferrosilicon [5900, 6100] [1]