中辉能化观点 | 中辉能化观点 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | | | | | | | 地缘扰动 | VS | OPEC+扩产，原油波动加剧。近期乌克兰接连袭击俄罗斯石 | 油出口港口和炼厂，油价下方存在支撑；库存方面，美国库存下降，油价 | | | | | | | | | 原油 | 下方有支撑；供需方面，OPEC+继续扩产，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升， | 谨慎看空 | | | | | | | | | | ★ | 油价下行压力较大，重点关注 | 60 | 美元附近美国页岩油新钻井盈亏平衡点。 | 策略：中长期向下，短期存地缘不确定性，空单继续持有同时购买看涨期 | | | | | | | | 权。 | 成本端原油转弱，仓单量处于历史高位压制盘面。成本端原油当前不确定 | | | | | | | | | | | 性较强，OPEC+增产预期压低油价；LPG | 估值修复，主力合约基差回归至 | LPG | 谨慎看空 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 螺纹表需环比好转，产量持平，库存继续降低，供需出现积极变化，但降库速度仍然有 | | 螺纹钢 | 谨慎看空 | 待观察。铁水产量继续上升，钢材整体供应水平较高。整体来看，建筑钢材下游需求仍 | | ★ | | 然未出现明显改善，房地产及基建表现仍然形成拖累，供需驱动力量有限，宏观事件兑 | | | | 现后情绪有所降温，整体维持区间运行。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷表需变化不大，产量小幅回落，库存略增，总体变化不大，供需相对平稳，矛盾不 | | | 谨慎看空 | 大。铁水产量继续回升，钢材整体需求仍然偏弱，供需层面缺少向上驱动，整体维持区 | | ★ | | 间运行。 | | 铁矿石 | | 铁水产量再增，钢厂、港口库存双增，节前补库接近尾声，假期钢企生产积极性仍然较 | | ★ | 轻多参与 | 强，外矿发运有回落预期，基本面持续支撑价格，建议多单轻仓参与。 | | 焦炭 | | 焦炭进入提涨阶段，焦钢博弈明显。焦企利润尚可，现货生产相对稳定。焦炭产量环比 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 略降，但库存有所增加。铁水产 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 主要逻辑 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 美豆本周优良率环比下降，但收获开启，利多支撑不足。本周豆粕库存环比增加， | | | 豆粕 | 国内短期供应充足。前日豆粕整理，节前基本面偏空，看多追多操作需谨慎。由于 短线下跌 | | | ★ | 中美贸易关税问题，豆粕持续下行空间预计暂有限。假期关注 | 9 月底美豆季度库存 | | | 数据，美生柴及美豆收获季下中美贸易进展。 | | | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。中方延期对加籽的反倾 | | | 菜粕 | 调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日，但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，利多程度有 短线下跌 | | | ★ | 限。菜粕走势暂以跟随豆粕趋势为主，关注中加贸易进展。 | | | | 美生柴政策变数频发，拖累棕榈油调整，考虑美豆油端近期利空因素较多，或抑制 | | | 棕榈油 | 本月棕榈油表现。此外，市场预计马棕榈油 9 短线延续整理 | 月将继续累库，或抑制双节前表现。 | | ★ | 短期偏弱震荡行情对待。关注马棕榈油本月出口情况以及美豆油端表现。 | | | 豆油 | 美生柴政策变数 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★ (Long - term holding) [1] - Silver: ★★ (Holding positions over the holiday) [1] - Copper: ★★ (Long - term holding) [1] - Zinc: ★ (Rebound) [1] - Lead: ★ (Weak) [1] - Tin: ★★ (Strong) [1] - Aluminum: ★ (Rebound under pressure) [1] - Nickel: ★ (Rebound under pressure) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★ (Rebound) [1] - Polysilicon: ★ (Cautiously bullish) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★ (Wide - range oscillation) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The risks such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the US government shutdown, along with the dovish statements of Fed officials, support the long - term investment value of gold and silver. The long - term bullish logic for gold and silver remains unchanged, but short - term risks need to be noted [1][3][4]. - The copper market is affected by factors such as supply contraction expectations and strategic resource attributes. It is recommended to take different strategies for short - term and long - term investments [1][6][7]. - The zinc market shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand in the long - term. It is advisable to be cautious during the holiday and maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [1][10][11]. - The lead market is currently in a short - term weak trend due to factors such as the resumption of production of lead enterprises and weak downstream demand [1]. - The tin market has a strong upward trend due to supply disruptions and supported terminal consumption [1]. - The aluminum market faces challenges such as reduced overseas bauxite arrivals and unsmooth destocking, resulting in a rebound under pressure [1][14]. - The nickel market has a situation of over - supply in refined nickel and uncertain downstream consumption of stainless steel, so it is recommended to wait and see [1][18][19]. - The industrial silicon market has a situation of reduced supply and increased downstream stocking, with short - term cost support and high inventory coexisting [1]. - The polysilicon market has production uncertainties in October, but strong policy expectations support the price [1]. - The lithium carbonate market has increasing production and continuous destocking. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average [1][22][23]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Conditions**: Gold and silver have reached new highs, supported by risk events such as the US government shutdown and the Russia - Ukraine conflict [2][3]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern. Silver follows the trend of gold and is also supported by other metal sentiments and strong demand [3][1]. - **Strategy**: Long - term multi - orders can be held over the holiday, and short - term multi - orders should be held lightly. Pay attention to short - term sentiment fluctuations if the US fiscal bill is resolved [4]. Copper - **Market Conditions**: Shanghai copper has reached a new high this year, with an increase in the closing price of the main contract and changes in various indicators such as inventory and price differentials [5][6]. - **Logic**: The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and the supply contraction expectation of the copper smelting industry is increasing. High copper prices suppress demand, and the domestic social inventory has increased [6][7]. - **Strategy**: Short - term speculative multi - orders are recommended to take profit and prepare for empty or light positions during the holiday. Long - term strategic multi - orders can be held, and industrial selling hedging should be actively arranged [7]. Zinc - **Market Conditions**: Shanghai zinc has stopped falling and rebounded, with changes in price, trading volume, inventory, and other indicators [9][10]. - **Logic**: The supply of zinc concentrates is relatively loose in 2025. Domestic zinc ingot social inventory has decreased, and the risk of soft squeezing in LME zinc continues. However, in the long - term, supply will increase and demand will decrease [10][11]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to be empty or hold light positions during the holiday. In the long - term, maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [11]. Aluminum - **Market Conditions**: Aluminum prices have rebounded under pressure, and alumina has shown a relatively weak trend [13]. - **Logic**: Overseas bauxite arrivals are expected to decrease, domestic aluminum ingot destocking is not smooth, and downstream processing industry start - up rates have slightly increased [14]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the short - term, paying attention to the changes in the start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises [15]. Nickel - **Market Conditions**: Nickel prices have rebounded, and stainless steel has slightly recovered [17]. - **Logic**: The impact of the political situation in Indonesia on nickel ore supply is limited. The supply of refined nickel is in excess, and the downstream consumption of stainless steel is uncertain [18]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the improvement of downstream consumption [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Conditions**: The main contract LC2511 opened low and went high, with the late - session gains narrowing [21]. - **Logic**: Supply has not significantly contracted, demand has released positive signals, and the total inventory has been decreasing for 7 consecutive weeks [22]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average in the range of [73500 - 75000] [23].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美豆本周优良率环比下降，但收获开启，利多支撑不足。本周豆粕库存环比增加， | | | | 豆粕 | | 国内短期供应充足。前日豆粕整理，短线反弹对待，节前看多追多操作需谨慎。由 | | ★ | 短线下跌 | 于中美贸易关税问题，豆粕持续下行空间预计暂有限。假期关注 9 月底美豆季度库 | | 存数据，美生柴及美豆收获季下中美贸易进展。 | | | | 菜粕 | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。中方延期对加籽的反倾 | | 调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日，但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，利多程度有 | 短线下跌 | | | ★ | | 限。菜粕走势暂以跟随豆粕趋势为主，关注中加贸易进展。 | | 美生柴政策变数频发，拖累棕榈油调整，考虑美豆油端近期利空因素较多，或抑制 | | | | 棕榈油 | 短线延续调整 | 本月棕榈油表现。此外，市场预计马棕榈油 9 月将继续累库，或抑制双节前表现。 | | ★ | | 短期偏弱震荡行情对待。关注马棕榈油本月出口情况以及美豆油端表现。 | | 豆油 | 短线延续调整 ...

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 地缘扰动提振油价，双节临近，做好仓位风控。近期乌克兰袭击俄罗斯港 | | 原油 | | 口和炼厂，油价短期反弹；库存方面，美国库存下降，油价下方有支撑； | | | 谨慎看多 | 供需方面，OPEC+继续扩产，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行压力 | | ★ | | 较大，重点关注 60 美元附近美国页岩油新钻井盈亏平衡点。策略：中长 | | | | 期向下，短期存地缘不确定性，空单继续持有同时购买看涨期权。 | | | | 成本端原油震荡偏强，仓单量处于历史高位压制盘面。成本端原油受地缘 | | LPG | | 扰动，震荡偏强；LPG 估值修复，主力合约基差回归至正常；双节临近， | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 炼厂开工率处于高位，供给端相对充足，厂内库存上升；下游化工需求有 | | | | 所回升。策略：供需矛盾不大，走势跟随油价，空单继续持有。 | | | | 短期跟随成本反弹为主，基差走强，盘面依旧维持升水结构，关注下游补 | | L | | 库力度。前期检修装置回 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 螺纹表需环比好转，产量持平，库存继续降低，供需出现积极变化，但降库速度仍然有 | | 螺纹钢 | 谨慎看空 | 待观察。铁水产量继续上升，钢材整体供应水平较高。整体来看，建筑钢材下游需求仍 | | ★ | | 然未出现明显改善，房地产及基建表现仍然形成拖累，供需驱动力量有限，宏观事件兑 | | | | 现后情绪有所降温，整体维持区间运行。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷表需变化不大，产量小幅回落，库存略增，总体变化不大，供需相对平稳，矛盾不 | | | 谨慎看空 | 大。铁水产量继续回升，钢材整体需求仍然偏弱，供需层面缺少向上驱动，整体维持区 | | ★ | | 间运行。 | | 铁矿石 | | 铁水产量再增，钢厂、港口库存双增，补库接近尾声，外矿发运有回落预期，基本面驱 | | ★ | 暂且观望 | 动转弱。 | | 焦炭 | | 焦炭进入提涨阶段，焦钢博弈明显。焦企利润尚可，现货生产相对稳定。焦炭产量环比 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 略降，但库存有所增加。铁水产量环比继续回升，维持高位运行，原料需求较高。焦炭 | ...

中辉有色观点 | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | | 尽管 PCE 不支持大幅降息，但是美政府关门等风险和联储官员鸽派表态提供支撑。 | | ★★ | 长期持有 | 降息落地但资金情绪不止，短期沪金 840 支撑。中长期黄金支撑逻辑不变，降息周 | | | | 期开启，地缘重塑，央行买黄金，黄金战略配置价值不变。长单持仓过节 | | 白银 | | 白银跟随黄金波动，但同时也受到铜等其他金属情绪的支撑。全球政策刺激明显， | | | 轻仓过节 | 白银需求坚挺，供供需缺口明显，白银长期看多逻辑不变。黄金等品种波动会白银 | | ★★ | | 盘面波动有冲击。短线轻仓过节，长线长期持有 | | | | 印尼矿难利多充分被市场消化，美宏观数据超预期削弱 10 月降息预期，国庆假期在 | | 铜 | 长期持有 | 即，建议铜短期投机多单移动止盈兑现，准备空仓或轻仓过节，产业卖出套保积极 | | ★ | | 布局，锁定合理利润。中长期，对铜依旧看好。 | | | | 宏观和板块情绪冲高回落，锌重新回归弱现实，国庆假期在即，建议沪锌 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously Bullish [1] - LPG: Cautiously Bearish [1] - L: Short - term Bearish with Rebound Opportunities [1] - PP: Short - term Bearish with Rebound Opportunities [1] - PVC: Low - level Volatility [1] - PX: Cautiously Bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously Bullish [2] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Cautiously Bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously Bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Natural Gas: Cautiously Bullish [4] - Asphalt: Cautiously Bearish [4] - Glass: Short - term Bullish, Long - term Bearish [4] - Soda Ash: Short - term Bearish with Rebound Opportunities [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical products, considering factors such as geopolitical disturbances, supply - demand relationships, inventory levels, and cost changes. For some products, geopolitical events can cause short - term price fluctuations, while long - term trends are mainly determined by supply - demand fundamentals. For example, crude oil is affected by geopolitical events in the short term but faces long - term supply surplus pressure [1][6]. - Some products are influenced by the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season. However, the actual demand may not meet expectations, affecting their price trends. For instance, PTA and MEG have weaker demand during this period [2][34][39]. - Inventory levels play a crucial role in determining product prices. For example, high inventory levels can suppress prices, while low inventory levels can provide some support [1][11][34]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices continued to rise, with WTI down 0.02%, Brent up 0.18%, and SC up 1.37% [5]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances led to a short - term oil price rebound, and the unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories provided short - term support. However, there is a long - term supply surplus, and prices may drop to around $60 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply may increase as Iraq's Kurdish region resumes oil exports. Demand in India decreased in August. US commercial crude oil inventories decreased in the week ending September 19 [7]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [485 - 495] for SC [8]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On September 23, the PG main contract closed at 4254 yuan/ton, up 0.16% [10]. - **Basic Logic**: Weaker cost from crude oil, increased downstream chemical demand, and approaching holidays led to inventory reduction by refineries, suppressing LPG prices. High warehouse receipts also pressured the market [11]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4200 - 4300] for PG [12]. L - **Market Performance**: The L01 closing price (main contract) was 7142 yuan/ton, up 0.5% [15]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term rebound following cost, with increased supply expected as previous maintenance devices return. Import volume is expected to rise. Demand is strengthening as the shed film season begins [17]. - **Strategy**: Try to go long on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [7100 - 7250] for L [17]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP01 closing price (main contract) was 6877 yuan/ton, up 0.5% [20]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improved, and the market rebounded. Supply pressure may ease as the upstream parking ratio is 18%. Downstream demand is entering the peak season [22]. - **Strategy**: Industries can hedge at high prices. Try to go long on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [6850 - 6950] for PP [22]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V01 closing price (main contract) was 4935 yuan/ton, up 0.3% [25]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply exceeds demand, and social inventory has increased for 14 consecutive weeks. Low prices and positive macro sentiment support the market. Pay attention to downstream replenishment before the National Day [27]. - **Strategy**: Try to go long on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [4800 - 5000] for V [27]. PX - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the PX spot price was 6773 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices have little change, while demand from PTA is expected to weaken. The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and inventory is still relatively high [30]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions at a profit. Look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and buy call options. Focus on the range of [6585 - 6680] for PX511 [31] PTA - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the PTA spot price in East China was 4555 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton [33]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure may ease as device maintenance is expected to increase. The "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is under - performing, and demand is weakening. Inventory is decreasing [34]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions at a profit. Look for short - selling opportunities at high prices and buy call options [34] MEG - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4352 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [38]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices are slightly increasing production, and overseas devices have little change. Demand is weak during the consumption season, but low inventory supports the price [39]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully. Look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. Focus on the range of [4210 - 4255] for EG01 [40] Methanol - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the methanol spot price in East China was 2299 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [41]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic device maintenance has increased, and overseas device load has slightly declined. Demand has improved, and social inventory accumulation has slowed down. Cost support is stabilizing [42][43] - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices. Focus on the range of [2331 - 2361] for MA01 [44] Urea - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1640 yuan/ton [46]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply is relatively abundant, and demand is weak both domestically and overseas. Inventory is continuously increasing, and cost support is expected to weaken [47][48] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully. Look for long - term long - buying opportunities at low prices [2] Natural Gas - **Core View**: Cautiously Bullish. Geopolitical factors boost energy prices in the short term, and the approaching consumption season supports demand. As of September 19, US natural gas inventory increased, and cooling weather will increase demand [4] Asphalt - **Core View**: Cautiously Bearish. Weaker cost from crude oil, increased supply pressure, and demand affected by typhoons in the south. Valuation is relatively high [4] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions [4] Glass - **Core View**: Short - term Bullish, Long - term Bearish. The market is rising due to anti - competition factors. Supply is under pressure, and demand from the real estate industry is weak. Pay attention to downstream replenishment during the peak season [4] - **Strategy**: Short - term long, long - term short, or short the spread between soda ash and glass [4] Soda Ash - **Core View**: Short - term Bearish with Rebound Opportunities. Demand has improved, but the expected glass production cut may suppress demand. Supply is expected to be abundant as summer maintenance ends [4] - **Strategy**: In the medium - to long - term, short on rebounds [4]

中辉有色观点 | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | | 尽管数据不支持大幅度降息，但是美国政府关门风险和美联储官员鸽派表态提供支 | | | 长期持有 | 撑。降息落地但资金情绪不止，短期沪金 840 支撑。中长期黄金支撑逻辑不变，降 | | ★★ | | 息周期开启，地缘重塑，央行买黄金，黄金战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 白银跟随黄金波动，但同时也受到铜等其他金属情绪的支撑。全球政策刺激明显， | | | 强势走高 | 白银需求坚挺，供供需缺口明显，白银长期看多逻辑不变。黄金等品种波动会白银 | | ★★ | | 盘面波动有冲击。短线轻仓持有过节，长线长期持有 | | | | 宏微共振推动铜价暴涨，隔夜铜续创年内新高之后小幅回落，建议铜多单继续持有， | | 铜 | 强势走高 | 移动止盈兑现，准备空仓或轻仓过节。中长期，对铜依旧看好。 | | ★★ | | | | 锌 | 弱势反弹 | 国庆长假临近，企业刚需备库，需求疲软，建议空单止盈兑现后准备空仓过节，中 | | ★ | | 长期看锌供增需减，仍是板块空 ...