工业硅、多晶硅日评：工业硅悲观情绪未改，多晶硅稳中向好-2025-03-25

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market has an oversupply and weak demand situation, with heavy market wait - and - see sentiment, light spot trading, and a downward trend in both spot and futures prices. It is expected that silicon prices will remain weak at low levels, and attention should be paid to the impact of silicon plant production cuts and polysilicon plant restarts on silicon prices [1] - The polysilicon market is currently stable, with inventory slightly decreasing. Although self - disciplined production cuts support prices, the downstream is in the off - season, and there is resistance to continuous price increases. Considering the terminal rush - to - install and demand recovery expectations, one can consider going long at low prices or buying call options [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 10,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained unchanged at 11,150 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.87% to 9,855 yuan/ton [1] Supply - With the continuous decline of silicon prices, the production starts of silicon enterprises of different scales and regions are diverging. The production starts of leading silicon enterprises in Xinjiang and enterprises with integrated production capacity are increasing steadily, while the production willingness of small and medium - sized silicon enterprises in the north is decreasing, and some enterprises in Sichuan are increasing production [1] - There is an expectation of new production capacity investment, and the supply side shows an increasing trend, with factory inventories continuously accumulating [1] Demand - Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, and some monomer plants in the organic silicon sector have maintenance plans, with expected output decline and weak demand for industrial silicon. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises are in the post - holiday resumption of production, with stable and increasing production starts [1] Polysilicon Price - N - type dense material remained unchanged at 40 yuan/kg, polysilicon re - feed material remained unchanged at 36 yuan/kg, polysilicon dense material remained unchanged at 34.5 yuan/kg, and polysilicon cauliflower material remained unchanged at 33.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.29% to 43,640 yuan/ton [1] Supply - Silicon material enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, and the output of leading enterprises has reached the lowest level. In February, the output decreased slightly to 90,100 tons due to fewer natural days, and it is expected that the output increase in March will be limited, with monthly output remaining below 100,000 tons [1] Demand - In February, component enterprises produced as needed, with a decline in production scheduling. It is expected that component production will increase from March to April. Affected by the rush - to - install tide, the supply of batteries is in short supply, and the factory inventory has dropped below the safety level. The production start of the silicon wafer sector is expected to change little in March, with limited incremental demand for polysilicon [1] Market News - On March 21, the winning bidder of Guohua Investment's first batch of photovoltaic component equipment centralized procurement in 2025 was Tongwei Co., Ltd., with a winning bid price of 4,097,811,987.9 yuan and a unit price of 0.699 yuan/W [1] - According to SMM statistics, the domestic polysilicon import volume in February was 3,128.13 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35.10%, and the cumulative import volume in 2025 was 5,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.60% [1] - According to SMM statistics, the domestic photovoltaic component export value in February was 10.364 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 28.10%, and the cumulative import and export value in 2025 was 24.774 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 34.60% [1]