铅锌日评：逢低采买，铅锭社库小幅去化，基本面偏弱，沪锌震荡回落-2025-03-25

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For lead, the production of primary and secondary lead is steadily resuming, with the transfer of primary lead delivery making the spot market supply tight and the discount of secondary lead expanding. The lead futures remain at a high level. The short - term opening of the import window may bring in some imported crude lead, and attention should be paid to its impact on supply and inventory. The lead price is supported by high scrap battery prices but limited by weak demand [1]. - For zinc, as the macro - sentiment fades, the zinc market returns to fundamental control. The supply of zinc ingots shows a strong increasing trend in March, the demand is in the recovery stage, and the cost - side support weakens. Considering that there is no significant inventory build - up, the zinc price will mainly fluctuate widely in the short term [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - The average price of SMM1 lead ingot was 17,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract rose 1.38% to 17,670 yuan/ton. The Shanghai lead basis was - 370 yuan/ton, a decrease of 240 yuan/ton [1]. - The trading volume of the active futures contract was 81,519 lots, an increase of 8.03%, and the open interest was 66,597 lots, an increase of 8.48%. The LME lead inventory was 232,250 tons, unchanged [1]. Supply - side Information - Primary lead smelters have basically resumed production, and the electrolytic lead output in March is expected to increase significantly by about 23 percentage points month - on - month. The supply of secondary lead raw materials has increased, and the operating rates in Anhui, Henan, and Inner Mongolia have rebounded to a 1.5 - year high [1]. - A lead smelter in Henan plans to start maintenance at the end of March or early April for about 1 month, with an estimated impact of about 15,000 tons [1]. - Some secondary lead smelters in Guangxi have stopped purchasing scrap batteries due to environmental inspections [1]. Demand - side Information - Most enterprises have resumed production, but due to sufficient pre - holiday inventory and the off - season of the battery market, the demand for lead ingots is limited [1]. Inventory Information - As of March 24, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions was 71,900 tons, an increase of more than 100 tons compared with March 17 and a decrease of 2,100 tons compared with March 20 [1]. Zinc Price and Market Data - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingot rose 1.30% to 24,090 yuan/ton, and the main Shanghai zinc futures contract rose 1.81% to 24,200 yuan/ton. The Shanghai zinc basis was - 110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton [1]. - The trading volume of the active futures contract was 243,814 lots, an increase of 38.82%, and the open interest was 133,620 lots, an increase of 7.08%. The LME zinc inventory was 154,400 tons, unchanged [1]. Supply - side Information - Smelters have sufficient raw material inventory, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. The production limit due to raw material shortage is weakening, and the production and profit of smelters are improving [1]. - A zinc smelter in Henan with a new production capacity of 150,000 tons started ignition and baking on March 21, and the actual zinc ingot output is expected to start in May at the earliest [1]. Demand - side Information - The operating rates of the three downstream sectors have rebounded, and the weak zinc price has stimulated downstream enterprises to purchase on dips, increasing zinc ingot transactions [1]. Inventory Information - As of March 24, the total inventory of SMM zinc ingots in seven regions was 128,900 tons, a decrease of 9,900 tons compared with March 17 and a decrease of 2,100 tons compared with March 20 [1].