金信期货日刊-2025-03-25

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The stock index is likely to experience short - term shock adjustment after continuous upward oscillations. It is recommended to adopt a short - term weak shock strategy [2]. - For today's market, it is recommended to take a bullish shock approach [5]. - In the long - term, due to high supply intensity and approaching the traditional peak season, attention should be paid to the actual start of downstream demand. Technically, with double dead - crosses of indicators, a cautious attitude is needed [6]. - For glass, with some production lines cold - repaired recently, spot sales have improved. With positive market sentiment influenced by policies, but actual demand still to be observed. Technically, with double golden - crosses of indicators and a strong breakthrough today, a bullish approach is recommended [8]. - For 20 - number rubber, from March onwards, Southeast Asian rubber - producing countries are in the low - yield season for over a month, with less glue output and reduced raw material supply for standard rubber. Technically, with disordered price movements, a shock approach is recommended [11]. - For alumina, the average production cost in the industry is 2800 - 3200 yuan/ton, and the current price is close to the cost line. A bullish shock approach is recommended [14]. - For sugar, over 90% of sugar mills in Guangxi have completed the crushing process, and the domestic sugar - crushing season is coming to an end. Industrial inventory is high, but import pressure is not large. Technically, with golden - crosses of MACD and short - term moving averages, the short - term market will fluctuate at a high level [16]. - For rapeseed oil, after China imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and meal, but the import volume of Canadian rapeseed oil is small, mainly imported from Russia. After the short - term emotional release, the market returns to the supply - demand situation, with high domestic inventory pressure. Technically, with golden - crosses of MACD and short - term moving averages, the short - term market will be in a shock pattern [19]. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Summary by Related Categories Stock Index - After continuous upward oscillations, it enters a "fatigue" state. Fundamentally, as listed companies enter the intensive annual report disclosure period, some funds seek risk - avoidance. Technically, with a high - level dead - cross of MACD, there is a need for further adjustment [2]. General Market - Today's market shows a significant upward trend, and a bullish shock approach is recommended [5]. Long - term Market - High supply intensity and approaching the traditional peak season. Attention should be paid to downstream demand start. Technically, double dead - crosses of indicators [6]. Glass - Some production lines are cold - repaired, spot sales improve. Policy - influenced positive market sentiment, but actual demand to be observed. Technically, double golden - crosses and a strong breakthrough [8]. 20 - number Rubber - Southeast Asian low - yield season from March, less glue output, reduced raw material supply. Technically, disordered price movements [11]. Alumina - Average production cost 2800 - 3200 yuan/ton, current price close to cost line [14]. Sugar - Guangxi sugar - crushing season ending, high industrial inventory, low import pressure. Technically, golden - crosses of MACD and short - term moving averages, high - level short - term shock [16]. Rapeseed Oil - Tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and meal, small import volume from Canada, mainly from Russia. After emotional release, back to supply - demand, high domestic inventory. Technically, golden - crosses of MACD and short - term moving averages, short - term shock [19].