金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/08/25 空头反扑的核心支撑：供需失衡与库存较高。做多机会的潜在信号：成本底线与预期转向。 从另一个角度看，当前玻璃期货2601价格的下跌或许正孕育着做多机会。 一方面，价格已接近沙河地区交割品生产成本，继续下跌可能引发企业挺价行为。企业为了维持利润空 间，在价格触及成本线附近时，往往会采取减产、限产等措施，减少市场供应，从而对价格形成支撑 。 另一方面，从技术分析角度，玻璃2601合约成交量缩量明显，从技术形态上看，当前位置不具备大幅下 跌的基础，反而有迎来反抽的可能性。 从中间盘整处下跌的幅度相比高位下跌到盘整处的幅度明显减少，按照技术分析黄金分割率0.618理论， 此处可能会出现反抽行情。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 玻璃期货后续走势分析 ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 近期，玻璃期货2601合约价格波动剧烈，引发市场广泛关注。 在价格破位下行的背景下，投资者面临两难抉择：是该抓住"跌出的做多黄金坑" ，还是屈服于空头反 扑的压力？ GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - PTA futures 2601 has risen in the past two days, and its future trend needs to be judged by considering multiple factors. It may maintain a slightly bullish and volatile short - term trend, with potential for further increase if demand improves; otherwise, it faces downward risks due to supply pressure in the medium term [3][4]. - For the stock market, the overall trend of the three major A - share indices is high - level volatile and upward [7]. - Gold is favored as the July non - farm payroll data indicates a lower - than - expected US economy, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, and its weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient with short - term platform consolidation [11]. - Iron ore is in a high - level wide - range volatile adjustment, with strong fundamental support but weakening market sentiment [14][15]. - Glass 09 has fallen 30 points back to 952. If its price stabilizes, the price of glass 2601 will also stabilize, and low - buying can be considered if it stabilizes [18]. - Palm oil should be treated with a slightly bearish and volatile view as the oil market has large cumulative gains, with rising inventory pressure and lack of demand support [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Supply: In August, there were concentrated short - term shutdowns and planned overhauls of facilities, reducing the operating rate to a monthly low and tightening supply. However, new facility production expectations and load recovery suppress the processing fee repair space, and medium - term supply pressure remains [4]. - Demand: Polyester load slightly increased to 89.4%, inventory pressure eased, and restocking demand in the manufacturing sector supported prices, but the sustainability of terminal textile orders remains to be seen [4]. - Cost: Crude oil fluctuations weakened valuation guidance, while PX provided weak support to PTA due to expected supply - demand pattern improvement [4]. - Technical and Market Sentiment: PTA2601 broke through the 20 - day line on the daily chart in the short term, and there is a bullish sentiment among some investors as the chemical product market shows signs of recovery [4]. Stock Market - The three major A - share indices opened higher and closed lower today, rising during the session and then falling back, with a small rebound at the end of the session, closing with a doji star. The overall trend is high - level volatile and upward [7][8]. Gold - The July non - farm payroll data was significantly lower than expected, especially the significant downward revision of May and June data, indicating that the US economy is not as strong as expected. This increases the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is beneficial for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in short - term platform consolidation [11]. Iron Ore - Fundamentals: Steel mills' profitability has improved, and hot metal production remains high, providing strong fundamental support. However, market sentiment has weakened recently, leading to a collective correction in the black - series commodities [14][15]. - Technical: It continues to adjust today, and is treated as a high - level wide - range volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to the support level near the lower important support [14]. Glass - Price Movement: Glass 09 fell 30 points back to 952. If its price stabilizes, the price of glass 2601 will also stabilize [18]. - Technical: Attention should be paid to the lower important support level, and low - buying can be considered if it stabilizes [18]. Palm Oil - Market Situation: The oil market has had large cumulative gains recently. With rising overall inventory pressure and lack of demand support, the market's motivation to chase higher prices has declined, and the pressure for profit - taking has increased. It should be treated with a slightly bearish and volatile view [21].

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/08/21 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 玻璃2601期货走势分析 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 近期，玻璃2601期货价格波动明显。从8月14 - 20日数据来看，8月14日，其收盘价1220元/吨 ，跌幅 1.37%，当周玻璃产线无变动，开工率和周产量持平，但厂家库存累库。中下游消化前期库存，补库需 求减弱，供需格局未见明显改善，期现价格共振下行。 8月19 - 20日，市场单边下行，20日主力合约收跌4.36%报1166元/吨，成交量达2644752。 当前玻璃市场驱动不足，需求仍有受限预期。一方面，供应端日熔暂稳于15.9 - 16万吨附近，暂无大变 化；另一方面，中下游库存高位，产销疲弱。 预计玻璃2601期价短期内将震荡运行。后续需重点关注环保事件对供需两端的影响程度，以及玻璃现货 成交情况、原料价格走势和商品市场整体情绪。若需求持续不振，库存继续累 ...

Group 1: Urea Futures - The urea futures price soared on August 19, with the main contract rising by 62 yuan, or 3.53%, to close at 1789 yuan. The surge was mainly due to the unexpectedly high tender offer for urea imports by India's IPL company [3]. - On the supply side, the daily output of the urea industry remained at a high level of 190,900 tons (a week - on - week increase of 50 tons on August 5), the total enterprise inventory climbed to 917,300 tons (a week - on - week increase of 58,500 tons on July 30), and the production enterprise operating rate was 84.93% (a week - on - week increase of 1.58%), indicating high supply elasticity [3]. - On the demand side, it showed the characteristics of "weak domestic demand and uncertain exports". The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants in North and Central China increased slowly, the raw material inventory could be used for about 7 days, and the purchasing willingness was low. Agricultural demand entered a seasonal off - season, and the grass - roots stocking willingness was lacking. Although the export port inspection policy was relaxed, the actual order conversion had not increased significantly [3]. - There are differences in the market regarding the subsequent trend. The bearish view believes that urea is in a pattern with support below and suppression above, and the abundant supply pattern remains unchanged, expecting a weakening oscillation. The cautiously optimistic group points out that the current price is not high, the room for continuous decline is limited, and although one should not be overly optimistic about the upside, the export theme may still ferment [3]. Group 2: Stock Index Futures - News: Li Qiang proposed to further improve the implementation efficiency of macro - policies and stabilize market expectations. Many securities brokerage business departments saw a peak in customer consultations [7]. - Operation: The short - term market will continue to oscillate upward at a high level [7]. Group 3: Gold - The July non - farm payrolls data was significantly lower than expected, especially the significant downward revision of the data for May and June, indicating that the US economy is not as strong as expected. The probability of an interest rate cut in September has increased, which is beneficial to gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in a short - term small - range oscillation on a platform [11]. Group 4: Iron Ore - The fundamentals are relatively strong as steel mills' profitability has improved, leading to high pig iron production. Also, under the call against involution, the state of the black industrial chain is relatively healthy, showing a resonance upward trend [15][16]. - Technically, it continued to adjust today, and it should be treated as a high - level wide - range oscillation in the near future [15]. Group 5: Glass - The macro - environment has improved and is continuously strengthening under the recovery expectation. The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak. The recent market drive mainly comes from the domestic economy [19][20]. - Technically, the lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy should be maintained [19]. Group 6: Methanol - Last week, the methanol port inventory continued to accumulate. Although the提货 in the mainstream storage areas in East China increased slightly due to a small amount of re - exports and ship departures, the stable supply of foreign vessels led to continuous inventory accumulation. It should be treated with a bearish and oscillating view [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Glass futures have good prospects for continued long - positions. The supply is shrinking, and the demand has new growth points, so it's advisable to continue going long on glass futures [3][4][5]. - The short - term A - share market will continue to oscillate upward at a high level. The central bank reaffirms a moderately loose monetary policy, and many places in the property market are accelerating the deployment of urban renewal [8][9]. - Gold is favored by the market as the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US increases, and currently, it is in a short - term platform with small oscillations [12]. - Iron ore has strong fundamental support and is in a resonance upward trend. It should be treated with a high - level wide - range oscillation mindset recently [16][17]. - For glass, considering the improvement of the macro - environment and effective lower support, a low - buying strategy should be maintained [20][21]. - Methanol in ports should be treated with a bearish and oscillating view as the inventory continues to accumulate [24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures - **Supply**: Policy promotes capacity clearance, and 4 production lines with a daily melting capacity of 2800 tons have stopped kilns, resulting in a shrinking supply [4]. - **Demand**: Although the demand from new commercial housing completion has declined, there is strong demand in urban renewal, old community renovation, interior decoration, the automotive industry, and the home appliance and kitchenware field, and export demand is also increasing [4]. A - share Market - **Market Performance**: On Monday, the three major A - share indexes opened higher, slightly declined, and then reached new highs in this round of rebound. The Shanghai Composite Index hit a 10 - year high [8][9]. - **News**: The central bank reaffirms a moderately loose monetary policy, and many places in the property market are accelerating the deployment of urban renewal [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The short - term market will continue to oscillate upward at a high level [8]. Gold - **Market Driver**: The July non - farm payrolls data was significantly lower than expected, especially the significant downward revision of May and June data, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US, which is beneficial to gold [12]. - **Market Condition**: Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in a short - term platform with small oscillations [12]. Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: Steel mills' profitability has improved, iron - water production remains high, and the black - industry chain is in a healthy state, presenting a resonance upward trend [16][17]. - **Technical Aspect**: There was an adjustment today, and it should be treated with a high - level wide - range oscillation mindset recently [16]. Glass - **Supply and Demand**: The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak [21]. - **Market Driver**: The main driving force for the recent market is the improvement and strengthening of the domestic economic recovery expectation [21]. - **Technical Aspect**: The lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy should be maintained [20]. Methanol - **Port Inventory**: Last week, the methanol port inventory continued to accumulate. Although the提货 in the mainstream storage areas in East China increased with a small amount of re - export and ship departure, the stable supply of foreign vessels led to continuous inventory accumulation [24]. - **Market Outlook**: It should be treated with a bearish and oscillating view [24].

Group 1: Report Core View - The soda ash futures have the potential to continue to be long due to supply reduction expectations, optimistic demand outlook, cost support, and policy speculation potential [3] Group 2: Soda Ash Futures Analysis - Supply: The current weekly production of the soda ash industry is maintained at a high level of 730,000 tons, with an operating rate as high as 87.13%. However, the new environmental protection policy in Qinghai will lead to production reduction expectations as Qinghai's capacity accounts for about 14.9% of the national capacity [3] - Demand: Although the float glass capacity is limited by the weak real - estate completion and new construction data, and the photovoltaic glass is in a loss situation, with the economic recovery, there is an optimistic expectation for future demand. The export volume of soda ash in the first half of 2025 increased significantly year - on - year, providing support to the market [3] - Cost: The prices of upstream raw materials such as coking coal have risen, and since fuel and raw materials account for a relatively high proportion in the cost of soda ash, it provides support to the soda ash futures price [3] Group 3: Other Futures Technical Analysis Stock Index Futures - The short - term market will enter a high - level shock stage [5] Gold - The July non - farm payroll data was significantly lower than expected, and the data for May and June were significantly revised downwards, indicating that the US economy is not as strong as expected. The probability of a rate cut in September has increased, which is positive for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in a short - term small - range shock [8] Iron Ore - The fundamentals are strongly supported as the molten iron output remains at a high level due to the improvement in steel mill profitability. The black industry chain is in a relatively healthy state under the call for anti - involution. Technically, it has a small fluctuation today and should be treated as a high - level wide - range shock recently [11][12] Glass - The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak. The main driving force for the recent market is the improvement and strengthening of the domestic economic recovery expectation. Technically, the lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [15][16] Alumina - Alumina has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility in futures. EGA condemned Guinea's government for revoking GAC's mining license, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core View - On August 14, 2025, the palm oil futures price dropped, with a closing price of 9368 yuan and a decline of 1.04%. If supply continues to increase and demand fails to improve effectively, the palm oil futures price may face continued pressure [3]. - For stock index futures, due to the high - level bearish candlestick, the short - term market will enter a high - level consolidation phase [6]. - The July non - farm payroll data in the US was significantly lower than expected, and the data for May and June were significantly revised downwards, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is positive for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in a short - term small - range consolidation [10]. - For iron ore, the overall fundamentals are strongly supported, and it shows a resonance upward trend. Technically, it closed with a large bearish candlestick today and should be treated as a high - level wide - range consolidation [14][15]. - For glass, the supply - demand situation has slightly improved, and the main driving force for the recent market is the improvement of the domestic economic recovery expectation. Technically, the lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [18][19]. - For alumina, it has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility in futures. After EGA condemned Guinea's government for revoking GAC's mining license, a low - buying strategy is recommended [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil Futures - On August 14, 2025, the palm oil futures closed at 9368 yuan, down 1.04%. The reasons for the decline are complex. On the supply side, Malaysia is in a seasonal production - increasing cycle, and Reuters expects the July inventory to reach a nearly two - year high, with the production - increasing expectation still in place in August. Indonesia's biodiesel and export policy adjustments bring uncertainty to international supply. On the demand side, domestic terminal consumption is weak, the spot basis in Chinese ports is continuously weakening despite low inventory, EU imports are down year - on - year, and India's high imports in June cannot change the overall weak demand. In addition, the weak price of soybean oil intensifies competition from substitutes, and technically, the daily line is near the over - bought area, with insufficient short - term upward momentum [3]. Stock Index Futures - Multiple institutions interpreted policies such as fiscal subsidies for personal consumer loans, and the National Data Bureau stated that China's total computing power ranks second in the world. Due to the high - level bearish candlestick, the short - term market will enter a high - level consolidation phase. Today, the three major A - share indices rose first and then fell, and the Shanghai Composite Index failed to break through 3700 points, ending an 8 - day winning streak with a small bullish candlestick with an upper shadow [6][7]. Gold - The July non - farm payroll data in the US was significantly lower than expected, and the data for May and June were significantly revised downwards, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is positive for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in a short - term small - range consolidation [10]. Iron Ore - With the improvement of steel mills' profitability, the molten iron output remains at a high level, and the overall fundamentals are strongly supported. In addition, the anti - involution sentiment in the black industry chain has led to a relatively healthy state, showing a resonance upward trend. Technically, it closed with a large bearish candlestick today and should be treated as a high - level wide - range consolidation [14][15]. Glass - The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak. The main driving force for the recent market is the improvement and continuous strengthening of the domestic economic recovery expectation. Technically, the lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [18][19]. Alumina - As a "mineral with stories", alumina has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility in futures. After EGA condemned Guinea's government for revoking GAC's mining license, a low - buying strategy is recommended [22].

本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/08/14 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 白银万点不是梦？ 白银期货后续走势有望震荡偏强。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 从基本面看，全球白银已连续多年供不应求，2025年这一格局有望持续，光伏与新能源等工业需求增长强 劲，为银价提供有力支撑 。 金信期货日刊 宏观层面，全球货币政策宽松预期增强，美元指数中期可能走弱，通胀预期上升，将提升白银的吸引力 。 且在去美元化背景下，若再有央行将白银纳入储备资产，将进一步利多白银 。不过，也需关注风险因素， 如美联储货币政策变化、美国经济衰退风险等，可能压制白银工业需求与投资需求 。 技术上，伦敦银价格突破关键位置后上方无明显阻力 。机构普遍看多白银，预计下半年国际银价主要波动 区间在45-49美元/盎司左右，沪银期货或有望达到10000 - 11000/千克。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、金信期货 观点仅 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views - On August 12, the soda ash futures closed at 1409 yuan, up 71 yuan or 5.31% from the previous day, with the highest reaching 1429 yuan. The rise was driven by macro - policies and cost factors. However, there are many uncertainties in the future trend. If there is no substantial positive support, the price may fall to the cost line [3]. - The three major A - share indices had a volatile day, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing with a mid - yang line for 7 consecutive days. The suspension of 24% tariffs between China and the US for 90 days is positive for A - shares, and the operation strategy is to go long on dips [6]. - The lower - than - expected July non - farm payrolls data and the downward revision of May and June data increase the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US, which is positive for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is sufficient, and it is in a short - term small - range oscillation [10]. - The iron ore market has a strong fundamental support due to high molten iron production and optimistic market sentiment. Technically, it rebounded significantly, and the strategy is to go long on dips [14][15]. - The glass market has a slightly improved supply - demand situation, mainly driven by the improvement of the domestic economic recovery expectation. Technically, with effective support below, the strategy is to go long on dips [18][19]. - Alumina has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility. After EGA condemned Guinea's revocation of GAC's mining license, the strategy is to go long on dips [22]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soda Ash Futures - Price: Closed at 1409 yuan on August 12, up 71 yuan or 5.31%, with the highest reaching 1429 yuan [3]. - Driving factors: Macro - policies and cost factors, including relevant policies from the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission and rising coal prices [3]. - Future trend: Uncertainties exist. High inventory and potential cost reduction may lead to price decline [3]. A - share Index - Market performance: The three major A - share indices had a volatile day, and the Shanghai Composite Index closed with a mid - yang line for 7 consecutive days [6]. - News: The suspension of 24% tariffs between China and the US for 90 days is positive for A - shares [6]. - Operation strategy: Go long on dips [6]. Gold - Influencing factors: Lower - than - expected July non - farm payrolls data and downward revision of May and June data increase the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US, which is positive for gold [10]. - Market condition: The weekly adjustment is sufficient, and it is in a short - term small - range oscillation [10]. Iron Ore - Fundamental support: High molten iron production due to improved steel mill profitability and optimistic market sentiment from black - limit production news [14][15]. - Technical analysis: A significant rebound, and the strategy is to go long on dips [14]. Glass - Supply - demand situation: Slightly improved, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak [19]. - Driving factors: The improvement of the domestic economic recovery expectation [19]. - Technical analysis: With effective support below, the strategy is to go long on dips [18]. Alumina - Market characteristics: Continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility [22]. - Event: EGA condemned Guinea's revocation of GAC's mining license [22]. - Operation strategy: Go long on dips [22].

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/08/12 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 江西停产有定论 碳酸锂涨停板 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 8月11日，停产"靴子"落地，让之前纷扰市场的各种"小作文"不攻自破。宁德时代枧下窝矿区采矿端 停产，对碳酸锂市场实际影响。碳酸锂期货开盘即涨停板。 从背后逻辑来看，目前市场关注的焦点在宜春 锂矿，上周临近8月9日矿权到期日，市场增仓大涨反映出资金对江西矿山停产的预期升温。而在周末两天 时间内，官方虽未公布明确消息，但据期货日报，宁德时代枧下窝矿区采矿端自8月10日起，该矿山采矿 端就不开展工作了，且短期内没有复产计划。 鉴于枧下窝矿区及配套冶炼厂的碳酸锂供应量约为1万吨/月，约占国内总产量的12.5%，该矿区停产可能 造成行业供需状态由紧平衡转向短缺；另一方面，本次停产主因与2025年新《矿产资源法》实施有关，在 枧下窝矿区停产后，市场担心后续其他大厂矿区的审 ...