本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/09/30 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 沪银期货上涨：多重逻辑共振下的行情演绎 ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 沪银期货价格再次持续走高，主力合约收盘10939元/千克，9月29日单日涨幅达3.92%%，创下阶段性新 高。这轮上涨是宏观预期、供需基本面与市场情绪共同作用的结果。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 宏观层面，美联储宽松预期是核心推手。新任美联储理事鸽派发言支持年内降息150个基点，市场预期未来 两次议息会议均将降息，显著降低白银持有成本。叠加俄乌、中东局势紧张，避险资金持续涌入贵金属市 场。 基本面支撑更为坚实。2025年全球白银供需缺口预计达3659吨，连续五年供不应求。光伏装机量大幅增长 带动工业用银需求激增，而白银70%作为铜铅锌副产品产出，扩产受限加剧短缺。 金信期货日刊 不过需警惕短期风险，当前金银比仍高于历史均值，且白银市场规模较小，资金进出易引发波动。中长期 看，降息周期延续与绿色 ...

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/09/29 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 沪银期货上涨：多重逻辑共振下的行情演绎 ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 沪银期货价格持续走高，主力合约收盘10632元/千克，9月26日单日涨幅达2.27%，成交量近百万手，创 下阶段性新高。这轮上涨是宏观预期、供需基本面与市场情绪共同作用的结果。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 宏观层面，美联储宽松预期是核心推手。新任美联储理事鸽派发言支持年内降息150个基点，市场预期未来 两次议息会议均将降息，显著降低白银持有成本。叠加俄乌、中东局势紧张，避险资金持续涌入贵金属市 场。 基本面支撑更为坚实。2025年全球白银供需缺口预计达3659吨，连续五年供不应求。光伏装机量大幅增长 带动工业用银需求激增，而白银70%作为铜铅锌副产品产出，扩产受限加剧短缺。 不过需警惕短期风险，当前金银比仍高于历史均值，且白银市场规模较小，资金进出易引发波动。中长期 看，降息周期 ...

GOLDTRUST FUTURES IFind、Mysteel、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD MEG 本周MEG开工率下降，港口库存小幅回升，但是月内难见持续性，短期需注意MEG低库存下的供需缺口风险。远月存在累库预期，压制了 2601合约的估值。当下低库存下供需偏紧，下游聚酯负荷略微提升，当下传统旺季需求略有改善，走货气氛当前虽有所好转，但关税及汇率 后续趋势不明，产业链对后期需求预期较为谨慎，以库存消化和贸易周转为主。预计短期乙二醇价格震荡调整。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 品种 周度观点 原油 供应端未来的变化预计仍是价格主导因素，需求端缺乏增长潜力显著提升的驱动。OPEC+维持增产政策，非OPEC+供应中南美增产预计逐步 兑现。根据近一月油价走势看市场对于供应增长已有预期，但库存尚未明显累积，过剩风险尚需验证。地缘上近期俄罗斯能源设施受袭击使得 加工、出口受限，且欧美未来有升级对俄罗斯制裁的可能性。预计布伦特油价预计将在60-75美元/桶区间内低位震荡。 PX&PTA 近期PX装置开工率维持偏高，短期原油价格 ...

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/09/26 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 玻璃期货大涨：多重预期下的上涨行情 9月25日玻璃期货再次上涨，是政策预期、供需边际改善与板块联动共振的结果。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 9月24日，工业和信息化部、自然资源部、生态环境部、住房城乡建设部水利部、农业农村部关于印发《建 材行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》的通知，其中提到，严格水泥玻璃产能调控。严禁新增水泥熟 料、平板玻璃产能，新建改建项目须制定产能置换方案。严禁从非大气污染防治重点区域向大气污染防治 重点区域转移水泥熟料、平板玻璃产能。 9月25日，周内玻璃产销前低后高，下半周在消息面提振下，中下游采购订货积极，多地企业发布涨价通知， 产销率大幅提升，带动企业库存继续下降。 截止9月25日，全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存5935.5万重箱，环比下降155.3万重箱或2.55%，创1月末以 来新 ...

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/09/25 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 玻璃期货大涨：多重预期下的上涨行情 9月24日玻璃期货大涨，是政策预期、供需边际改善与板块联动共振的结果。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 9月24日，工业和信息化部、自然资源部、生态环境部、住房城乡建设部水利部、农业农村部关于印发《建 材行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》的通知，其中提到，严格水泥玻璃产能调控。严禁新增水泥熟 料、平板玻璃产能，新建改建项目须制定产能置换方案。严禁从非大气污染防治重点区域向大气污染防治 重点区域转移水泥熟料、平板玻璃产能。 政策面成为核心推力，多地购房补贴、房贷利率下调等地产支持政策叠加"保交楼"推进，修复了市场对 建材需求的信心，沙河"煤改气"传闻更提前点燃供给收缩预期。 供需端呈现积极信号，华北主产区库存持续去化，沙河现货市场多家厂家抬价出库，贸易商拿货积极性回 升，产销环比 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of Shanghai Silver futures has been rising strongly, with the main contract reaching 10,317 yuan on September 22, a 3.81% increase, hitting a record high. The COMEX silver futures have accumulated a 41% increase since the beginning of the year, far exceeding the 35% increase of gold during the same period. The rise is due to three main reasons: macro - level factors, fundamental factors, and technical factors [3]. - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to fluctuate at a high level overall. The market has a positive expectation due to a press conference at 3 pm today, and relevant departments are promoting the formulation of national standards for pre - made dishes [7]. - The gold market is trading on the expectation of an interest rate cut in October. After a three - day adjustment, gold has reached a new high with a strong upward trend and can continue to be bullish [11]. - For iron ore, the start of restocking may support raw materials. Technically, it is still in a high - level wide - range oscillation range and should be treated with an oscillatory mindset [14]. - For glass, it declined today. Attention should be paid to the support level of the lower platform. The daily melting is basically stable, the factory inventory has slightly decreased, but the recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient [18][19]. - For soybean oil, on September 12, the domestic commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.26 million tons. High inventory restricts the price increase space, and it should be treated with a bearish oscillatory view [22]. - For pulp, the price in Shandong is stable, the port inventory is slightly decreasing, and it remains at a medium - high level. Before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, there is an expected boost, but no improvement is seen yet. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and high - selling and low - buying within the range can be considered [25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - The continuous rise of Shanghai Silver futures is mainly due to: macro - level factors such as the Fed's monetary policy shift (new Fed governor's dovish speech supporting a 150 - basis - point interest rate cut this year and market expectations of two 25 - basis - point cuts in the next two meetings) and rising geopolitical tensions; fundamental factors including supply - demand imbalance in the silver market (increased demand from the photovoltaic industry and a global supply - demand gap of 3,659 tons in 2025) and increased investment value; and technical factors such as a bullish moving - average arrangement and a MACD golden cross [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index closed with a small positive line with a lower shadow. A press conference today is expected to be positive for the market, and relevant departments are promoting the formulation of national standards for pre - made dishes. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level [7]. Technical Analysis - Gold - The market is trading on the expectation of an interest rate cut in October. After a three - day adjustment, gold reached a new high with a strong upward trend and can continue to be bullish [11]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - The supply is stable, steel mills are gradually resuming production, and iron ore restocking before the National Day may support prices. Technically, it is in a high - level wide - range oscillation range [14][15]. Technical Analysis - Glass - The glass price declined today. Attention should be paid to the lower platform support. The daily melting is stable, the factory inventory has slightly decreased, but the recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient [18][19]. Technical Analysis - Soybean Oil - On September 12, the domestic commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.26 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 100,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 110,000 tons. High inventory restricts the price increase space [22]. Technical Analysis - Pulp - The price of pulp in Shandong is stable, the port inventory is slightly decreasing and remains at a medium - high level. Before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, there is an expected boost, but no improvement is seen yet. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and high - selling and low - buying within the range can be considered [25].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean oil futures market is expected to be volatile and bearish due to factors such as high domestic soybean supply, low demand, and weak international soybean futures [4][22]. - The stock index futures market is expected to continue high - level volatile adjustment next week [7]. - The gold market is expected to undergo a period of adjustment after a decline [10][11]. - The iron ore market should be treated with a volatile mindset, as supply is stable and steel mills' restocking may support raw materials [14][15]. - The glass market should be monitored for the support at the lower platform, with attention on the restocking situation as the peak season approaches [18][19]. - The pulp market is expected to maintain low - level volatility, and high - selling and low - buying within the range can be considered [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Oil - On September 19, 2025, soybean oil futures rose and then fell [3]. - The domestic soybean arrival volume remains high, the oil mill operating rate is at a high level in recent years, and last week's actual crushing volume reached 2.3039 million tons. The soybean supply is sufficient, leading to an increase in soybean oil output. As of September 5, the soybean oil commercial inventory reached 1.2513 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,500 tons [4]. - On September 12, the domestic soybean oil commercial inventory was 1.26 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 100,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 110,000 tons [22]. Stock Index Futures - A - share market: The three major A - share indexes opened lower in the morning, fluctuated throughout the day, were mostly in the positive territory, and declined near the end of the session. The Shanghai Composite Index closed with a small negative line [8]. - News: In July, China reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds by $25.7 billion, and the holding scale reached a new low since 2009. Shanghai optimized and adjusted the policies related to the pilot individual housing property tax [7]. Gold - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the gold market declined, with the expectation of a period of adjustment [10][11]. Iron Ore - The supply side has stable shipments. Steel mills are showing signs of resuming production, and molten iron is expected to remain at a high level. As the National Day approaches in the middle and late period, steel mills' restocking may support raw materials [14][15]. Glass - The daily melting volume is basically stable, the factory inventory has slightly declined, but the recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation as the peak season approaches [19]. Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong region remained stable today, and the port inventory started to decline slightly, remaining at a medium - high level. There is an expected boost before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, but no improvement has been seen yet, so it is expected to maintain low - level volatility [26].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall market of petrochemical products is complex, with supply and demand factors influencing prices. Crude oil prices are in a weak consolidation phase, and the prices of downstream products such as PX, PTA, MEG, and benzene series face different supply - demand situations and price trends [4][5]. - The petrochemical market is still in the recovery stage, but downstream demand has not shown significant improvement, and the market trading atmosphere is sluggish [25]. 3. Summary by Variety BZ&EB - Pure benzene has high supply pressure due to new capacity coming online from August - September, and downstream demand support is weak. Although port inventories are decreasing, they remain at a high level. Benzene - to - styrene (BZN) weakened and then stabilized. Styrene's planned maintenance was carried out, with an operating rate of 73.44% (down 1.54% from last week). New capacity will be gradually released from September - October, and supply is expected to increase. The downstream 3S operating rate changed little, and the price rebound space is limited [4]. - This week, the pure benzene operating rate was 78.35% (down 0.94% from last week), and the styrene operating rate was 73.44% (down 1.54% from last week). BZN dropped to around $120/ton. The 3S operating rate recovery was okay, but the ABS inventory pressure was large. Pure benzene and styrene port inventories started to decline, but the overall industrial chain inventory was high, and terminal recovery was slow [33]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ started the second - stage production increase in October, with an increase of 137,000 barrels per day compared to September. Geopolitical risks did not further intensify, and the impact of sanctions on supply and trade flow was limited. The EU will ban the import of refined products from Russian crude oil starting in early 2026. The seasonal inflection point on the demand side has appeared, and crude oil prices are in a weak consolidation phase [5]. PX&PTA - PX's short - term operating rate is relatively strong, but the cost support from the declining crude oil price center has weakened significantly. Although downstream load has increased, PXN is expected to operate weakly. Recently, there have been many changes in PTA devices. Two 2.5 - million - ton devices restarted last week, and a 4.5 - million - ton PTA device in South China will restart, increasing short - term supply. PTA processing fees are at a historical low of 139 yuan/ton. PTA factory inventories continue to accumulate, and the supply - demand pattern is strong in the near term and weak in the long term, limiting the price rebound space [5]. - The weekly average domestic PX capacity utilization rate was 85.51% (up 0.88% from last week), and the Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization rate was 75.2% (up 0.59%). The PX - naphtha spread remained at around $235/ton. Some PX devices had maintenance and restart operations. Although it is the downstream polyester peak season, new orders and load did not exceed expectations. PX will enter the end of the expansion cycle in 2024, and attention should be paid to the commissioning time of a 3 - million - ton new capacity in the fourth quarter [9]. - This week, the PTA spot market price was 4,617 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan/ton from last week), and the mainstream spot basis weakened to - 79 yuan/ton. The PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate was 77.29% (up 2.34% month - on - month). The 4.5 - million - ton PTA device in South China will restart, increasing short - term supply. The new PTA device maintenance plan from October - November has limited impact on the current market. After the new device is put into operation in October, PTA will enter the inventory accumulation cycle again, and supply pressure still exists. PTA processing fees are at a historical low, and the market's expectation for peak - season demand has significantly weakened [12]. MEG - This week, the MEG operating rate continued to rise, and port inventories increased slightly, but it is difficult to sustain within the month. There is a risk of supply - demand gap under low inventory in the short term. There is an inventory accumulation expectation in the far - month, suppressing the valuation of the 2601 contract. Currently, the supply - demand is tight under low inventory, downstream polyester load has slightly increased, and the traditional peak - season demand has slightly improved. The market is still in the recovery stage, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [5]. - This week, the MEG market price was 4,352 yuan/ton (down 26 yuan/ton month - on - month). The domestic MEG total capacity utilization rate was 67.04% (up 0.49% from last week), and the coal - based MEG capacity utilization rate was 67.52% (up 1.56% from last week). The gross profit was - 162.28/ton (down 103.63/ton month - on - month). Port inventories increased to 383,700 tons (up 20,500 tons from last week), still at a historical low level. Due to pre - holiday stocking, polyester factories still have demand for low - price replenishment. The supply - demand structure of MEG from September - October has improved compared to expectations, and the transferable spot is continuously tightening [19]. Polyester - This week, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of the Chinese polyester industry was 87.9%, remaining flat from last week. The short - fiber and long - filament operating rates slightly increased. The comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 62.19% (down 0.23% from last week). The average number of terminal weaving order days was 14.42 days (down 0.13 days from last week), and factory inventories slightly increased. The overall terminal weaving market has weak driving forces, downstream demand has not improved significantly, the market trading atmosphere is sluggish, seasonal orders are average, and there are few large - order news. The market is still in the recovery stage [25].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - On September 18, 2025, the soybean oil futures continuously declined with a drop of 1.64%. Multiple unfavorable factors led to the decline, and the subsequent trend should be treated with a volatile and bearish outlook [3][4]. - The stock index futures are expected to continue high - level volatile adjustment in the short term [7]. - Gold is expected to be adjusted for some time after closing with a mid -阴线 due to the so - called "buy on rumor, sell on news" effect after the Fed's normal 25 - basis - point rate cut [11][12]. - Iron ore may be supported by restocking. Technically, it is in a high - level wide - range volatile range and should be treated with a volatile mindset [15][16]. - Glass continues to adjust today, and attention should be paid to the support level of the lower platform. The downstream deep - processing orders' recovery is insufficient, and attention should be paid to the restocking situation approaching the peak season [19][20]. - High inventory of soybean oil suppresses the price increase space, and it should be treated with a volatile and bearish outlook [23]. - Pulp in Shandong maintains stable prices, with port inventory starting to decline slightly. It is expected to be boosted before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season but has not improved yet. It is maintained at a low - level volatile view, and high - selling and low - buying within the range can be considered [27]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Soybean Oil - Supply side: The domestic soybean arrival volume remains high, the oil mill operating rate is at a high level in recent years, and the actual crushing volume last week reached 2.3039 million tons. The soybean supply is sufficient, leading to increased soybean oil output. The port soybean inventory has increased to 9.661 million tons, and the soybean oil commercial inventory has continuously increased, reaching 1.2513 million tons as of September 5, a month - on - month increase of 12,500 tons [4]. - Demand side: There is not much new demand currently. Although some groups have started small - package stocking, the external sales of bulk oil have decreased, and it is not yet the time for the concentrated release of Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day stocking demand, so the demand side has insufficient support for prices [4]. - International market: The US soybean futures have been running weakly, weakening the support for domestic soybean oil [4]. Stock Index Futures - Market performance: The three major A - share indexes opened lower in the morning, rose rapidly, then fell back at noon, and suddenly dived in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index closed with a mid -阴线 [7][8]. - News: The Fed announced its first 25 - basis - point rate cut in 2025 as expected, and the securities trading stamp duty in August increased by 226% year - on - year [7]. Gold - The Fed's normal 25 - basis - point rate cut, in line with market expectations, led to a general decline in the commodity market, and gold closed with a mid -阴线 [12]. Iron Ore - Supply side: The shipping is stable. Recently, steel mills show signs of gradually resuming production, and the hot metal is expected to remain at a high level [16]. - Demand side: Approaching the National Day in the middle and late period, steel mills' restocking may support the raw materials [15][16]. Glass - Supply side: The daily melting is basically stable, and the factory inventory has slightly declined [20]. - Demand side: The recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient, and attention should be paid to the restocking situation approaching the peak season [20]. Pulp - Market situation: The pulp price in Shandong today remains stable, and the port inventory starts to decline slightly, remaining at a medium - to - high level. It is expected to be boosted before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season but has not improved yet [27].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The decline of soybean oil futures on September 17, 2025, was due to multiple factors, and the subsequent trend should be treated with a bias towards a downward oscillation [3][4]. - The A - share market is expected to continue high - level oscillation in the short term [7]. - For gold, it is recommended to wait for the result of the Fed's September interest - rate decision before making a decision [11]. - Iron ore should be treated with an oscillation mindset as the start of restocking may support raw materials [13]. - Glass can be considered from a low - buying perspective [17]. - Pulp is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation, and high - selling and low - buying within the range can be considered [24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Oil - Supply: The current domestic soybean arrival volume remains high, the oil mill operating rate is at a high level in recent years, and last week's actual crushing volume reached 2.3039 million tons. The soybean inventory at ports increased to 9.661 million tons, and the commercial inventory of soybean oil also continued to accumulate, reaching 1.2513 million tons as of September 5, a month - on - month increase of 12,500 tons [4]. - Demand: There is not much new demand currently. Although some groups have started small - package stockpiling, the external sales of bulk oil have decreased, and the concentrated release of stocking demand for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day has not yet arrived [4]. - International Market: The continuous weak operation of US soybean futures has weakened the support for domestic soybean oil [4]. - Inventory: On September 12, the domestic commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.26 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 100,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 110,000 tons. High inventory suppresses the price increase space [21]. A - share Market - Market Performance: The three major A - share indices opened lower and oscillated in the morning on September 18, 2025, and started to recover after 10:30. The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index performed stronger than the Shanghai Composite Index [8]. - News: The Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments issued "Several Policy Measures to Expand Service Consumption", and the market awaited the result of the Fed's September interest - rate decision at 0:00 on September 18 [7]. - Outlook: The market is expected to continue high - level oscillation in the short term [7]. Gold - Market Condition: Gold oscillated after reaching a new high, and the market was waiting for the result of the Fed's September interest - rate decision [11]. - Recommendation: Wait for the news to land before making a decision [11]. Iron Ore - Supply: The shipment is stable, and steel mills are showing signs of gradual resumption of production. The molten iron is expected to maintain a high - level operation [14]. - Demand: As the National Day approaches in the middle and late period, steel mills' restocking may support raw materials [13][14]. - Outlook: It is still in a high - level wide - range oscillation range and should be treated with an oscillation mindset [13]. Glass - Supply: The daily melting is basically stable, and the factory inventory has decreased slightly [18]. - Demand: The recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is not sufficient, and attention should be paid to the restocking situation near the peak season [18]. - Outlook: After a small adjustment today, it can be considered from a low - buying perspective [17]. Pulp - Price: The pulp price in Shandong area remained stable today [24]. - Inventory: The port inventory started to decrease slightly and remained at a medium - high level [24]. - Outlook: There is expected to be a boost before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, but no improvement has been seen yet. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation, and high - selling and low - buying within the range can be considered [24].