供给端不确定性加深，溴素涨价有望超预期

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The supply-side uncertainty has deepened, and the price of bromine is expected to rise significantly [4] - China's bromine supply is heavily reliant on imports, with the import dependency increasing from 47.3% in 2021 to 56.8% in 2024 [5][10] - The demand for bromine is primarily driven by brominated flame retardants, which account for over 60% of domestic bromine consumption [5][12] - Rising costs of sulfur and shipping are expected to support bromine price increases [6] Summary by Sections Supply Side - China's bromine resources are scarce, mainly found in underground brine in Laizhou Bay, Shandong Province, with declining effective production capacity [5] - The geopolitical situation in the Red Sea may impact imports, leading to increased supply chain pressures and costs [5] Demand Side - Brominated flame retardants are the largest downstream application, with significant growth expected in the electronics sector due to the increasing use of PCBs [5] - The construction and mining sectors are also expected to provide rigid support for brominated flame retardant demand [5] Cost Side - Sulfur prices have been rising, with a current price of 2450 RMB/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 26.29% and a year-on-year increase of 160.64% [6][14] - Shipping costs are anticipated to recover due to seasonal improvements and geopolitical uncertainties, further increasing supply chain costs [6] Recommended Stocks - Key companies to watch include Shandong Haihua, Lubei Chemical, Yara International, and Sully Co., with significant bromine production capacities [6]