海外宏观周报：美联储二季度能否降息？-2025-03-25

Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve's interest rate remains unchanged at 4.25-4.50% as of March 20, 2025, aligning with market expectations[2] - The probability of maintaining the interest rate in May increased from 71.8% to 85.7% following Powell's comments on inflation and tariffs[2] - The GDP growth forecast for 2025 was revised down to 1.7% from 2.1%[2] Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets saw a rebound, with the Nasdaq rising by 1.41% on the day of Powell's remarks, while the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng indices fell by 1.60% and 1.13%, respectively[11] - Gold prices increased by 1.20% amid market instability, while Brent crude oil rose by 2.24%[14] Inflation and Tariff Implications - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be temporary, with the inflation outlook for 2026 remaining unchanged[12] - The likelihood of a rate cut in June is estimated at 67.3% if the White House moderates its tariff stance and economic data supports a recession[3] Risks and Considerations - Market risks may exceed expectations, and policy changes could introduce additional uncertainties[4] - Statistical errors may arise due to data availability and transparency issues, potentially affecting analysis outcomes[4]