Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The MLF operation shows a tight balance in quantity and a possible structural decline in price, but the specific price may not be given. The policy function of MLF is gradually weakening, and it is transitioning to other tools such as repurchase and OMO. The short - term bond market is technically bullish, but there is no clear macro - logic for a medium - term downward trend in interest rates, so medium - term caution is still needed [4][6][20]. Summary by Directory 1. Rare "Early Announcement" of MLF, What's the Meaning? - Quantity perspective: The MLF injection amount of 450 billion yuan this time is in a tight balance considering the net issuance of government bonds (621.9 billion yuan this week, the highest weekly payment amount this year) and the end - of - quarter capital demand [4][9]. - Price perspective: Changing from single - price winning to multi - price winning without announcing the winning interest rate may indicate that the role of the MLF policy interest rate is fading. It may lead to a market perception of structural interest rate cuts [4][9]. - Cost - reduction effect: The actual cost - reduction effect may be limited. Although the lower limit of the winning interest rate range of MLF may decline, it may not be lower than the certificate of deposit rate, so the substantial cost - reduction function for the bank system's liability side is not significant [4][9]. - Similarity to repurchase: MLF and repurchase are both medium - term liquidity tools. After the net MLF injection, the repurchase volume this month may be small, and the policy function of MLF is gradually weakening [4][12]. - Overall signal: The current MLF operation shows positive signals of tight balance in quantity and possible structural decline in price, but the specific price may not be given. Attention should also be paid to the repurchase situation at the end of the month [4][15]. 2. How Are the Current Technical Indicators Performing? - T main contract: The MACD has risen above the 0 - axis, the DIF line has crossed the DEA line to form a golden cross, and the closing price has crossed the BBI multi - empty line, showing a signal of turning from short to long [6][16]. - TL main contract: The MACD is below the 0 - axis, the negative column has shortened compared with the previous day, the closing price has crossed the BBI multi - empty line, the 7 - day RSI has risen to around 50, and the J value has risen to 75. Both the T and TL main contracts are in the high - volatility range [6][17]. - Bond market strategy: The short - term bond market is technically bullish, with a possible lower limit of 1.75%. However, there is no clear macro - logic indicating a change in the fundamental expectation and a medium - term downward trend in interest rates. The current point is suitable for re - balancing positions and varieties, rather than rashly increasing exposure to risk assets [6][20].
MLF历史使命或结束,做多窗口可能较短
Tebon Securities·2025-03-25 09:27