Soochow Securities·2025-03-25 09:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the heavy truck industry, particularly highlighting the expected benefits from the implementation of the National IV emission standards [12]. Core Insights - February sales exceeded expectations, with wholesale sales reaching 82,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 36.1% and a month-on-month increase of 12.7% [8]. - Terminal sales for February were 48,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 81.9% and a month-on-month increase of 42.9% [8]. - The report anticipates that in March 2025, domestic sales will be around 70,000 units, with wholesale expected to reach 110,000 units [8]. Summary by Sections Sales Tracking - February production of heavy trucks was 87,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 46.3% and month-on-month growth of 14.4% [11]. - The total inventory in February increased by 16,000 units, with the current total inventory at 149,000 units [8][26]. Market Structure - In February, the market share for terminal sales was led by Jiefang (25.0%), Dongfeng (19.2%), and Heavy Truck (19.3%) [10]. - The market share for exports was dominated by Heavy Truck at 46.6%, followed by Jiefang (14.7%) and Dongfeng (6.6%) [51]. Profitability Tracking - The report indicates that the heavy truck industry is experiencing a recovery, with significant increases in both terminal and wholesale sales, suggesting a positive trend in profitability [11][12]. - The penetration rate for natural gas heavy trucks reached 36.7%, with sales of 17,700 units in February, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 84.5% [33]. Demand Tracking - The report notes that macroeconomic indicators remain stable, supporting the demand for heavy trucks [70]. - The average oil-gas price difference was reported at 2.3 yuan, which is above the critical value for cost recovery, indicating favorable economic conditions for natural gas trucks [34].