宏观深度报告：估算关税对美国通胀的影响：三个框架

Group 1: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The proposed tariffs include regional tariffs of 25% on Mexico and Canada, and 20% on China, affecting a total of $468.9 billion, equivalent to a 14.3% increase on all goods[3] - The basic framework estimates that these tariffs could raise the US CPI and PCE inflation rates by 2.7 and 2.9 percentage points, respectively[3] - The advanced framework predicts a CPI inflation increase of 1.24 percentage points from regional tariffs, with direct contributions from consumer goods and indirect contributions from intermediate goods[3] Group 2: Dynamic Equilibrium Model - The dynamic equilibrium model estimates a lower inflation impact of 0.49 percentage points for the 25% tariffs on Mexico and 10% on China, which is less than the advanced framework's estimate of 0.78 percentage points[3] - If trade partners retaliate, the inflation impact could double compared to scenarios without retaliation[3] Group 3: Sector-Specific Tariff Effects - Tariffs on five specific categories (automobiles, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum, and wood products) are expected to raise CPI and PCE inflation rates by 1.2 and 1.3 percentage points, respectively[3] - The effective tariff rate for these five categories is estimated at 6.3%, impacting 25.4% of total imports[20] Group 4: Risk Factors - Risks include misunderstandings of the tariff transmission path to US inflation and potential errors in mapping imported goods to CPI and PPI categories[3] - The uncertainty surrounding the implementation of Trump's tariff policies poses additional risks to inflation estimates[3]