周度经济观察：市场定价重回基本面-2025-03-25

Economic Performance - In January-February, general public budget revenue decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, a significant drop of 2.9 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Tax revenue fell by 3.9% year-on-year, down 6.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating weakened economic recovery momentum[4] - Local government fund budget revenue dropped by 10.7% year-on-year, a decline of 15.6 percentage points from the previous month[4] Fiscal Policy Outlook - Future fiscal policy will focus on enhancing social security systems to boost consumer spending and support economic transformation[5] - The current fiscal expenditure growth rate is 3.4%, down 6.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in fiscal support[4] Real Estate Market - New and second-hand housing sales have shown continuous improvement, suggesting that the real estate market's drag on the economy may be less severe than last year[7] - The performance of the real estate market is expected to provide support for year-on-year economic growth rates[7] Technology Sector Trends - Recent trading around technology stocks has shown signs of retreat, with a shift towards dividend and cyclical stocks reflecting a decrease in risk appetite[10] - The market's focus may shift towards undervalued cyclical stocks during the adjustment phase of technology stocks, indicating a potential change in investment strategy[10] Monetary Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China announced a net injection of 630 billion yuan through MLF operations, marking the first net injection since July of the previous year[11] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds target rate, with a slight adjustment in the pace of balance sheet reduction, reflecting increased uncertainty in the economic outlook[15][16]