Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic nickel, maintain short positions with a price range of 120,000 - 135,000 yuan. The supply - demand contradiction persists, and the surplus pattern remains unchanged, but there is support at the lower price due to tight nickel ore supply [4][90]. - For stainless steel, try short positions with a light position, and the price range is 12,700 - 13,700 yuan. With high production schedules, weak demand, and large inventory pressure, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [6][120]. Summary by Directory 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel showed a weak trend, with a weekly decline of 3.34%. Trading volume decreased to 1.3535 million lots (-103,600), and open interest decreased to 111,600 lots (-46,300). LME nickel also declined by 2.05% weekly, with trading volume at 32,300 lots (-10,900) [10]. - The basis premium was 1,410 yuan/ton [12]. 1.2 Supply Side Nickel Ore - Last week, the price of 0.9% nickel ore remained flat, while the prices of 1.5% and 1.8% nickel ore increased. The shipping price from the Philippines to China rose [18]. - In January, the export volume of nickel ore from the Philippines decreased. In February, China's nickel ore imports reached 1.1461 million tons, a 25.7% increase month - on - month and a 6.3% decrease year - on - year [22]. - Last week, the arrival volume of nickel ore increased by 441,900 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 190,000 wet tons [24]. Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 11 yuan/nickel point, while the price of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron remained unchanged. The negative premium of nickel pig iron compared to electrolytic nickel and scrap stainless steel narrowed [30]. - In February, China's nickel iron imports were 908,700 tons, a 2.2% decrease month - on - month and a 23.5% increase year - on - year [32]. - The loss of nickel iron plants narrowed, and the operating rate declined. In March, the operating rate and output of domestic nickel pig iron are expected to rise, while those of Indonesian nickel pig iron will change slightly. Nickel pig iron inventory decreased [36][40][42]. Electrolytic Nickel - In February, the operating rate and output of refined nickel fluctuated slightly. In March, the operating rate of refined nickel is expected to decline [48]. - The import loss of electrolytic nickel widened. In February, the import volume of electrolytic nickel decreased, and the export volume increased [50][54]. 1.3 Demand Side Stainless Steel - In March, the production schedule of stainless steel increased, and the production schedule of 300 - series stainless steel also increased [59][109]. - In February, the export volume of stainless steel decreased by 42.7% month - on - month and increased by 6.6% year - on - year; the import volume decreased by 1.2% month - on - month and 28.1% year - on - year [63][110]. New Energy - The increase in the price of pure nickel was less than that of nickel sulfate, and the negative premium of nickel sulfate compared to pure nickel narrowed. The proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate is extremely small [68]. - In March, the production schedules of ternary precursors and ternary materials increased, with a 13% and 12% month - on - month increase respectively, and a 15.41% and 13.4% year - on - year decrease respectively [72]. - In March, the output of nickel sulfate increased by 9.5% month - on - month and decreased by 23.2% year - on - year [74]. - In February, the production of new energy vehicles was 888,000 units, a 12.5% decrease month - on - month and a 91.6% increase year - on - year; the sales volume was 892,000 units, a 5.48% decrease month - on - month and an 87.14% increase year - on - year [79]. 1.4 Inventory Side - Last week, the inventory of SHFE decreased, while the LME inventory increased. The pure nickel inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone remained unchanged, and the six - region social inventory decreased by 2,130 tons [80][85]. 1.5 Electrowinning Nickel Cost - The cost of producing electrowinning nickel from externally purchased MHP and nickel matte decreased, while the cost of producing electrowinning nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate increased. The cost advantage of MHP integrated production of electrowinning nickel over high - nickel matte integrated production declined [89]. 2.2 Cost and Profit - The price of high - nickel pig iron increased, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome remained unchanged. The cost support increased, but the increase was limited [97]. - The losses of 200 - series and 300 - series stainless steel widened, while the losses of 400 - series stainless steel narrowed [101]. 2.3 Fundamental Aspects - The production schedule of stainless steel is slowly recovering, and the production schedule of 300 - series stainless steel in March increased. In February, the export volume of stainless steel decreased, and the import volume also decreased [109][110]. 2.4 Inventory Side - The social inventory of domestic stainless steel decreased, and the inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel all decreased [118]. 2.5 Market Outlook - For stainless steel, try short positions with a light position, with a price range of 12,700 - 13,700 yuan. With high production schedules, weak demand, large inventory pressure, and limited cost support, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [120].
镍与不锈钢周报：承压回落，关注矿端扰动-2025-03-25
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-03-25 07:15