乙二醇日报：乙二醇进口到港量预计回升，盘面价格底部震荡调整-2025-03-25

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The import arrival volume of ethylene glycol is expected to rebound, and the futures price is oscillating at the bottom [1] - The short - term oil price in the cost side continues to fluctuate. The main port inventory is slightly decreasing, which is beneficial to market sentiment. The downstream polyester operating load is slowly increasing, but the terminal textile order volume is insufficient, and the polyester finished product inventory pressure is relatively large. Attention should be paid to the improvement of port inventory and downstream demand [4] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - Price: The spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,505 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from the previous day. The closing price of the main contract was 4,472 yuan/ton, up 1.73% from the previous trading day, and the basis was - 42 yuan/ton [2] - Cost: The oil price stabilized and rebounded. WTI crude oil main contract closed at $68.29 per barrel, and Brent oil closed at $71.67 per barrel. The short - term oil price continued to oscillate [3][4] - Supply: Multiple domestic and foreign ethylene glycol production devices had maintenance or restart plans. As of March 20, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 72.7% (down 0.13% from the previous period). From March 24 to March 30, the planned arrival volume at the main port was about 196,000 tons [3] - Demand: The polyester load was around 91.5%. The total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 9.53 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction was 8.1593 million meters [3] - Inventory: On March 21, the inventory at the East China main port was 643,300 tons. According to the CCF statistics, the inventory at the East China main port on March 24 was about 767,000 tons, down 43,000 tons from the previous period. The inventory of domestic MEG plants was 51,790 tons, down 11.7% [3][4] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - Futures and Spot: The main contract price of MEG futures increased by 1.73% to 4,472 yuan/ton, and the trading volume increased by 39.10% to 243,373 lots, while the open interest decreased by 4.97% to 358,335 lots. The spot price in the East China market increased by 1.81% to 4,505 yuan/ton [6] - Basis and Spread: The MEG basis decreased by 223.53% to - 42 yuan/ton, the MEG 1 - 5 spread decreased by 28.99% to 98 yuan/ton, the MEG 5 - 9 spread increased by 17.44% to - 71 yuan/ton, and the MEG 9 - 1 spread increased by 48.08% to - 27 yuan/ton [6] - Profit: The profit of naphtha - based production increased by 5.39% to - 138.47 dollars/ton, while the profits of ethylene - based, methanol - based, and coal - based production remained unchanged [6] - Operating Rate: The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol increased by 6.16%, the polyester factory load increased by 2.25%, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load increased by 9.68%. The operating rates of coal - based, oil - based, ethylene - based, and methanol - based production remained unchanged [6] - Inventory and Arrival: The inventory at the East China main port increased by 7.75% to 682,300 tons, the Zhangjiagang inventory decreased by 1.50% to 335,100 tons, and the arrival volume decreased by 1.35% to 131,100 tons [6] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - Macro - dynamics: Trump announced that a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada would take effect on Tuesday, and reciprocal tariffs on countries imposing tariffs on US products would take effect on April 2. He also planned to raise the tariff on all Chinese imports from 10% to 20%. Trump and Putin's call led to a 30 - day cease - fire on energy facilities in Ukraine, but achieving a full cease - fire was still a long - way off [7] - Domestic and Foreign Markets: In the morning, the external market of MEG oscillated and rebounded, with the offer for March shipments at 526 - 527 dollars/ton. The internal market fluctuated within a narrow range, with the current spot basis at a premium of 33 - 42 yuan/ton over the 05 contract [8] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price, profit, operating rate, import arrival volume, port inventory, etc. of ethylene glycol over a long - term time series [10][11][13]