Tong Hui Qi Huo
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乙二醇港口累库压力凸显关注煤制装置减产可能
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 08:07
乙二醇港口累库压力凸显,关注煤制装置减产可能 一、日度市场总结 主力合约与基差 :乙二醇期货主力合约价格连续两日稳定于3822元/吨, 但近期走势显示价格从3938元/吨持续回落至当前水平,市场呈现弱势震 荡。华东现货价格同步持平于3855元/吨,期现基差维持33元/吨的窄幅波 动,反映现货市场交投情绪谨慎。 持仓与成交 :主力合约持仓量单日增加25557手至355406手,创近期新 高,而成交量大幅攀升至26.17万手,较前一日增长45.9%,显示资金入场 活跃但多空分歧加剧。 供给端 :乙二醇总体开工率维持67.63%低位,其中煤制开工率连续两周稳 定于54.29%,油制开工率持平于76.23%。尽管乙烯法制工艺利润持续压缩 (如DOW化学法利润周降43元/吨至-1134元/吨),但油制装置仍维持高负 荷运行,煤制利润周内腰斩至112元/吨或压制后续开工弹性。 需求端 :聚酯工厂负荷稳定于89.42%,江浙织机负荷持平于63.43%,终端 需求未现季节性改善信号。下游刚性补库为主,缺乏投机性需求支撑。 库存端 :华东主港库存周增10.7%至73.2万吨,其中张家港库存单周激增 27.9%至27.5万吨,创 ...
原油、燃料油日报:原油承压于供应宽松预期弱需求主导油价走势-20251124
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 08:02
原油承压于供应宽松预期,弱需求主导油价走势 一、日度市场总结 原油期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 :2025年11月21日,SC原油主力合约收跌1.46%至446元/ 桶,WTI和Brent分别下跌1.5%和1.5%至58.76美元/桶、63.08美元/桶,显 示全球油价同步回落。SC-Brent价差从0.6美元/桶扩大至0.92美元/桶, SC-WTI价差从4.97美元/桶扩大至5.24美元/桶,反映SC相对外盘跌幅较 小,或受中国西部原油管道输油突破2亿吨的支撑。Brent-WTI价差小幅走 强至4.32美元/桶,延续欧洲需求相对稳健的预期。 持仓与成交 :布伦特原油投机净多头增加13,497手至178,364手(截至11 月18日),而WTI净空头增加33,023手至42,487手,显示市场对欧洲基准油 价的看涨情绪更强,但对美国原油供应宽松的担忧加剧。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 :美国当周石油钻井数增加2口至419口,叠加美国内政部计划扩大 西海岸和北极区域钻探,暗示未来页岩油产能或回升。委内瑞拉原油装置 因火灾停产及俄罗斯石油公司削减股息则加剧非OPEC供应扰动。OPEC+方 面,印度 ...
美需偏弱与库存回升,纯苯苯乙烯承压运行
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 07:43
能源化工 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2025 年 11 月 24 日 星期一 美需偏弱与库存回升,纯苯苯乙烯承压运行 一、 日度市场总结 苯乙烯港口库存 14.8 万吨(-2.7 万吨),环比去库 15.2%,苯乙烯 延续去库但仍高于往年。纯苯港口库存 14.7 万吨(+3.4 万吨),环比累 库 30.1%。 通惠期货研发部 供应:苯乙烯开工率及供应环比小幅波动。目前,苯乙烯周产量 34.3 万吨(-0.1 万吨),工厂产能利用率 69.0%(-0.3%)。 (1)基本面 价格:11 月 21 日苯乙烯主力合约收跌 1.33%,报 6507 元/吨,基 差 53(+33 元/吨);纯苯主力合约收跌 1.57%,报 5508 元/吨。 成本:11 月 21 日布油主力收盘 59.0 美元/桶(-0.4 美元/桶), WTI 原油主力合约收盘 62.8 美元/桶(-0.7 美元/桶),华东纯苯现货报 价 5360 元/吨(-95 元/吨)。 需求:下游 3S 开工率整体需求回暖,EPS 产能利用率 56.3% (+4.6%),ABS 产能利用率 72.4%(+0.6%),PS 产能利用率 55. ...
纯苯、苯乙烯日报:纯苯累库加速,苯乙烯再现分化-20251121
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 07:38
能源化工 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2025 年 11 月 21 日 星期五 纯苯累库加速,苯乙烯再现分化 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 (1)基本面 价格:11 月 20 日苯乙烯主力合约收涨 0.55%,报 6595 元/吨,基 差 20(+19 元/吨);纯苯主力合约收涨 1.14%,报 5595 元/吨。 成本:11 月 20 日布油主力收盘 59.4 美元/桶(-1.3 美元/桶), WTI 原油主力合约收盘 63.5 美元/桶(-1.4 美元/桶),华东纯苯现货报 价 5420 元/吨(+25 元/吨)。 苯乙烯港口库存 14.8 万吨(-2.7 万吨),环比去库 15.2%,苯乙烯 延续去库但仍高于往年。纯苯港口库存 14.7 万吨(+3.4 万吨),环比累 库 30.1%。 供应:苯乙烯开工率及供应环比小幅波动。目前,苯乙烯周产量 34.3 万吨(-0.1 万吨),工厂产能利用率 69.0%(-0.3%)。 需求:下游 3S 开工率整体需求回暖,EPS 产能利用率 56.3% (+4.6%),ABS 产能利用率 72.4%(+0.6%),PS 产能利用率 55.9% (+ ...
铜日报:铜价高位区间延续,宏观预期主导后市方向-20251120
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 06:18
铜价高位区间延续,宏观预期主导后市方向 一、日度市场总结 铜期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 :11月19日SHFE铜主力合约收于86030元/吨,较前一交易 日小幅回升250元/吨,但较11月13日仍下跌470元/吨。基差方面,平水铜 升水扩大至50元/吨,湿法铜贴水维持-55元/吨。LME(0-3)贴水扩大 至-35.33美元/吨,创近两周新高。 持仓与成交 :LME铜持仓量11月18日减少4891手至319542手,LME库存单日 下降4.14%。国内方面,SMM监测显示86000元/吨下方现货采购情绪指数升 至3.13,低价刺激下游补库需求释放。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 :短期扰动与长期增量并存。刚果(金)Kalando铜矿桥梁坍塌事 故或影响局部运输,但科菲科技与刚果(金)LEDYA集团签订的60kt/a铜选 冶化项目及TrueNorth Copper在澳大利亚Mt Oxide项目的高品位矿体发现 预示中期供应增量。华北地区冶炼厂检修结束令现货升贴水承压,国内精 铜供应边际宽松。 需求端 :电力基建支撑韧性。国家能源集团松滋八宝100MW风电项目获 批,配套160MWh储能设施将拉动铜 ...
碳酸锂日报:储能热度吸引资金涌入,碳酸锂基差存在修复需求-20251120
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 06:17
储能热度吸引资金涌入,碳酸锂基差存在修复需求 一、日度市场总结 碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 :碳酸锂主力合约11月19日收于99300元/吨,较前一交易 日上涨5780元/吨,突破10万元/吨关口,创2024年6月以来新高。基差进一 步走弱至-8600元/吨,环比扩大4780元/吨。 持仓与成交 :主力合约持仓量增至50.3万手,成交量大幅攀升至176.7万 手,显示资金加速入场推动价格上行。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 :锂辉石精矿价格持平于8670元/吨,锂云母精矿上涨100元/吨至 4565元/吨,原料端成本支撑边际增强。国内碳酸锂产能利用率维持75.34% 高位,锂辉石与盐湖提锂开工率均超60%,11月产量预计与10月持平。大中 矿业加达锂矿年产能5万吨碳酸锂项目推进,但短期供应增量有限。 需求端 :新能源汽车11月前9日零售同比降5%但环比增16%,储能及动力电 池需求维持韧性。六氟磷酸锂价格跳涨4000元/吨,磷酸铁锂材料上涨365 元/吨,电芯排产环比向好支撑碳酸锂消费。固态电池技术产业化预期升 温,但短期仍依赖现有液态体系需求。 库存与仓单 :碳酸锂总库存连续四周下降至1 ...
碳酸锂日报:矿端开复工预期反复,落地前锂价波动仍可能放大-20251113
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 12:16
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the lithium carbonate futures may continue to fluctuate in a moderately strong manner, but the upside space is limited. The high capacity utilization rate on the supply side and the expected launch of lithium mine projects suppress the long - term price, while the accelerated spot destocking and the resilient demand for new energy vehicles support the near - month contracts. However, it is necessary to be vigilant against the negative feedback risk caused by the poor cost - pressure transmission of downstream cell enterprises, and the price fluctuations may widen due to intensified year - end capital games [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Changes**: On November 12, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose slightly by 40 yuan to 86,580 yuan/ton, and the basis strengthened from - 4,540 yuan/ton to - 4,380 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main contract increased slightly by 2,473 lots to 529,000 lots, and the trading volume rebounded significantly by 26.9% to 1,145,000 lots [1] - **Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes** - **Supply Side**: On November 12, the price of spodumene concentrate rose by 130 yuan to 7,995 yuan/ton, with continuous cost - side pressure. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate increased to 75.34%. Coupled with the progress of the 50,000 - ton lithium carbonate project of Dazhong Mining's Jiada Lithium Mine, the medium - term supply increase expectation suppressed market sentiment [2] - **Demand Side**: In October, 1.4 million new energy vehicles were retailed, a year - on - year increase of 17%, driving the demand for power batteries. The prices of cathode materials were stable with a slight increase. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate rose by 245 yuan to 36,605 yuan/ton, but the cell prices remained stable. Downstream acceptance of high prices was limited, and purchases were mainly for rigid demand [2] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Lithium carbonate inventory decreased for four consecutive weeks. On November 7, the inventory decreased by 3,405 tons compared with October 31 to 124,000 tons, and the destocking speed accelerated [2] - **Market Summary**: In the short term, the lithium carbonate futures may continue to fluctuate in a moderately strong manner, but the upside space is limited. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback risk and price fluctuations [3] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - The prices of the lithium carbonate main contract, basis, main - contract open interest, main - contract trading volume, battery - grade lithium carbonate market price, spodumene concentrate market price, lithium hexafluorophosphate, power - type ternary materials, and power - type lithium iron phosphate all showed varying degrees of increase on November 12 compared with the previous day. The lithium mica concentrate market price remained unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate increased, and the inventory decreased. The prices of various types of cells remained stable [5] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretations - **Spot Market Quotations**: On November 12, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price and the average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated within a range. The market sentiment was high, and downstream material factories were cautious. The supply side had a high overall operating rate, and it was expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in November would be roughly the same as that in October. The demand in the power and energy - storage markets was strong, and significant destocking of lithium carbonate was expected in November [6] - **Downstream Consumption**: According to preliminary statistics from the Passenger Car Association, from October 1 to 31, the national new - energy passenger - vehicle market retail volume was 1.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 8%. The cumulative retail volume since the beginning of this year was 10.27 million, a year - on - year increase of 23%. The wholesale volume was 1.614 million, a year - on - year increase of 16% and a month - on - month increase of 8%. The cumulative wholesale volume since the beginning of this year was 12.061 million, a year - on - year increase of 30% [7] - **Industry News** - On October 28, Dazhong Mining's "Jiada Lithium Mine Mineral Resources Mining Plan" passed the review of the Ministry of Natural Resources. After reaching full capacity, it can produce about 50,000 tons of lithium carbonate per year, marking a step closer to obtaining the mining license [9] - On October 23, the overall price of the echelon market remained stable. The cost - side pressure, supply - side capacity release, and demand - side cautious purchasing formed a hedging effect [9] - According to the National Market Regulatory Administration, China is about to enter the stage of large - scale retirement of power batteries. In 2024, the domestic power - battery recycling volume exceeded 300,000 tons, corresponding to a market scale of over 48 billion yuan. It is expected that the domestic market scale will exceed 100 billion yuan by 2030 [10] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including those on the lithium carbonate futures main contract and basis, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, ternary precursor prices, ternary material prices, lithium iron phosphate prices, lithium carbonate operating rate, lithium carbonate inventory, and cell selling prices [13][16][18]
OPEC下调原油需求预估,油价遭受重挫
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 10:41
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term oil prices may test the lower limit of the range again, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and inventory inflection points. OPEC has adjusted its forecast for the global oil market in the third quarter from a supply shortage to a supply surplus due to higher - than - expected US production and increased supply from the organization itself. There is a need to be vigilant about the impact of the UK's sanctions on Russia and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East on the market [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes - On November 12, 2025, WTI and Brent futures prices rebounded significantly, with WTI closing at $60.99 per barrel (previous day $59.53), a gain of 2.45%, and Brent at $65.09 per barrel (previous day $63.57), a gain of 2.39%. SC crude oil prices fell slightly to 458.8 yuan per barrel (previous day 460.4 yuan). The SC - Brent spread changed from $1.08 per barrel to - $0.66 per barrel, and the SC - WTI spread narrowed from $5.12 per barrel to $3.44 per barrel, indicating the relative weakness of domestic SC crude oil compared to international oil prices. The Brent - WTI spread strengthened to $4.1 per barrel (previous day $4.04), suggesting tighter supply - demand in the European market [2]. b. Supply - Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Changes - **Supply**: Russia's seaborne oil product exports in October remained at 7.8 million tons, showing supply resilience. Chevron plans to increase production by 2% - 3% annually by 2030, and the possible restart of oil drilling leases off the California coast in the US may lead to a marginal loosening of long - term supply. However, short - term disruptions remain, such as the UK's plan to restrict LNG export services to Russia from 2026 and the potential impact of the non - approval of Lukoil's sanction waiver extension [3]. - **Demand**: Refinery demand is differentiated. Japan's refinery operating rate dropped slightly to 90.6% (previous week 91.4%), and the decrease in US gasoline inventory slowed, indicating a marginal slowdown in demand. Indian state - owned refiners' procurement of Russian ESPO crude shows support in Asian spot demand, and the US strategic petroleum reserve's purchase of 1 million barrels reflects clear policy support [4]. - **Inventory**: US API crude inventory increased by 1.3 million barrels (previous value + 6.52 million barrels), with a slower inventory build - up but still at a high level. Product inventories decreased, reflecting seasonal demand shifts. Japan's commercial crude inventory decreased by 354,000 liters to 10.38 million liters, but gasoline and kerosene inventories increased, showing a differentiated terminal replenishment rhythm [5]. c. Price Trend Judgment - Short - term prices may test the lower limit of the range again, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and inventory inflection points. OPEC adjusted its third - quarter global oil market forecast from a shortage to a surplus, with a supply surplus of 500,000 barrels per day in the third quarter. There is a need to be vigilant about the UK's sanctions on Russia and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [6]. 2. Supply - Chain Price Monitoring a. Crude Oil - Futures prices: SC rose 1.61% to 466.2 yuan per barrel, WTI fell 4.19% to $58.48 per barrel, and Brent fell 3.63% to $62.73 per barrel. - Spot prices: OPEC's basket price remained unchanged, while some other spot prices had slight fluctuations. - Spreads: SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI spreads all changed, with significant increases in SC - Brent and SC - WTI spreads. - Inventory: US commercial crude, Cushing, strategic reserve, and API inventories all increased. US refinery operating rate decreased slightly, and crude processing volume increased slightly [8]. b. Fuel Oil - Futures prices: FU rose 0.82% to 2,693 yuan per ton, LU rose 1.50% to 3,311 yuan per ton, and NYMEX fuel oil fell 4.28% to 247.13 cents per gallon. - Spot prices: Some spot prices of fuel oil increased slightly, while others remained unchanged. - Spreads: Singapore and Chinese high - low sulfur spreads changed, with an increase in the Chinese high - low sulfur spread [9]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation a. Supply - Russia's seaborne oil product exports in October were 7.804 million tons, similar to September. Chevron plans to increase oil and gas production by 2% - 3% annually by 2030. Indonesia expects an oil production of about 607,000 barrels per day in 2025. The Trump administration may open the California coast for oil drilling leases [10][11]. b. Demand - Indian state - owned refiner Indian Oil Corporation plans to purchase Russian ESPO and Sokol crude for early next year [12]. c. Inventory - US API inventories showed changes in various products, with a decrease in some and an increase in others. The US Energy Department purchased about 1 million barrels of crude for the strategic petroleum reserve. Japan's commercial crude inventory decreased, while gasoline and kerosene inventories increased [13][14]. d. Market Information - Lukoil applied to the US Treasury for an extension of the trading deadline. UK's BP is in talks to sell Castrol. UK plans to ban services for Russian LNG exports from 2026. Crude - related futures prices fell significantly [15].
铜供给收紧叠加宏观分歧,偏强运行格局延续
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 10:41
Group 1: Report's Core View - Copper supply tightening and macro differences lead to a continued strong - running pattern. The market will likely stay within the current range and remain generally strong in the short term. Supply - side factors and overseas demand weakness put pressure on prices, while China's electromechanical industry provides support [1][3] Group 2: Day - to - Day Market Summary Copper Futures Market Data Changes - On November 12, LME copper price dropped slightly to $10,840/ton. SHFE's main contract closed at 86,490 yuan/ton on November 11 with intensified intraday fluctuations. Spot premium and discount diverged, with the premium of premium copper expanding to 120 yuan/ton, the premium of flat - water copper shrinking to 5 yuan/ton, and the discount of wet - process copper widening to - 55 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) discount also widened to - 21.28 dollars/ton. LME copper open interest increased to 324,358 lots on November 11, COMEX inventory rose significantly to 376,631 short tons, and SHFE inventory decreased slightly to 136,250 tons, with overall inventory pressure remaining [1] Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply**: Global copper supply is expanding. US industrial metal inventory soared from 83,900 tons in February to over 335,000 tons, driven by the price difference between the US and Europe. Southeast Asian countries' stricter origin rules may increase China's re - export trade costs in the short term but may accelerate local industrial chain layout in the long run [2] - **Demand**: China's electromechanical product exports and motor industry upgrading support copper consumption, but high US inventory and the expanding LME discount imply weak overseas demand. Domestic procurement and sales sentiment has slightly improved, but the Contango structure of inter - month spreads and import losses suppress import demand [2] - **Inventory**: LME inventory dropped to 42,964 tons on November 12, but COMEX inventory reached a new high for the year. With the inflow pressure on US delivery warehouses, global visible inventory remains at a high level [2] Market Summary - Supply - side factors such as the sharp increase in US inventory and Southeast Asian trade policy disturbances suppress prices. Demand - side, the resilience of China's electromechanical industry provides support, but weak overseas demand and the inflow of macro - arbitrage funds into the delivery system intensify selling pressure. The market will likely run within the current range and remain generally strong in the short term [3] Group 3: Industry Chain Price Monitoring | Indicator | November 12, 2025 | November 11, 2025 | November 6, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM:1 copper (spot) | 87,010 | 86,950 | 86,610 | 60 | 0.07% | yuan/ton | | Premium copper | 115 | 120 | 115 | - 5 | - 4.17% | yuan/ton | | Flat - water copper | 5 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0.00% | yuan/ton | | Wet - process copper | - 55 | - 55 | - 50 | 0 | 0.00% | yuan/ton | | LME (0 - 3) | - 14 | - 21 | - 15 | 7 | 33.74% | dollars/ton | | SHFE |86,680 | 86,750 | 86,490 | - 70 | - 0.08% | yuan/ton | | LME | 10,897 | 10,840 | 10,875 | 57 | 0.53% | dollars/ton | | LME inventory | 44,088 | 42,964 | 43,789 | 1,124 | 2.62% | tons | | SHFE inventory | 136,250 | 136,250 | 136,275 | 0 | 0.00% | tons | | COMEX inventory | 378,303 | 376,631 | 372,304 | 1,672 | 0.44% | short tons | [5] Group 4: Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on China's PMI, US PMI, US employment, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper price, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper price, TC processing fees, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper net long positions, Shanghai copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [6][10][11]
原油、燃料油日报:供需宽松仍是定价主逻辑,油价弱势未改-20251111
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 07:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term oil prices will maintain a volatile trend, with intertwined supply - demand contradictions. The supply side is supported by Iraqi supply disruptions, but the abundant idle capacity under the OPEC+ production - cut policy limits the upside. On the demand side, there is a long - short game between the recovery of refinery profits and the weakening expectation of jet fuel consumption. SC shows relative independence due to domestic price adjustments and regional spreads, but the deepening of near - month discounts reflects spot pressure [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Crude Oil Futures Market Data Analysis - On November 10, 2025, the SC crude oil main contract rose slightly by 0.26% to 461.8 yuan/barrel, while WTI and Brent prices remained stable at 59.84 dollars/barrel and 63.7 dollars/barrel respectively. The spreads between SC and Brent, WTI strengthened by 0.21 dollars/barrel to 1.18 dollars/barrel and 5.04 dollars/barrel respectively, indicating an expansion of SC's premium relative to the outer market. The discount of the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread deepened to - 3.4 yuan/barrel, reflecting pressure on near - month contracts [2]. 3.1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: The West Qurna - 2 project in Iraq was suspended due to force majeure, and 3 batches of crude oil shipments of Lukoil were cancelled, increasing the short - term risk of supply tightening in Iraq. The cooperation between Zhonggang Petroleum and Kazakh oil fields may provide potential support for long - term production capacity in Central Asia, but the short - term impact is limited [3]. - **Demand Side**: The slight increase in refined oil prices in China shows a marginal improvement in refinery profits, which may support crude oil procurement demand. However, Singapore's plan to levy a green tax on aviation fuel may suppress the consumption expectation of jet fuel in the Asia - Pacific region, forming a partial suppression on the demand side [4]. - **Inventory Side**: The expansion of the SC near - far month spread discount may imply an accumulation of domestic delivery inventories under supply pressure. The inventory data of the US and OECD have not been updated, and subsequent EIA reports need to be followed [5]. 3.1.3 Price Trend Judgment - In the short term, it will maintain a volatile trend with intertwined supply - demand contradictions. The supply side is supported by Iraqi supply disturbances, but the abundant idle capacity under the OPEC+ production - cut policy limits the upside. On the demand side, the recovery of refinery profits and the weakening expectation of jet fuel consumption form a long - short game. SC shows relative independence due to domestic price adjustments and regional spreads, but the deepening of near - month discounts reflects spot pressure [6]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Futures Prices**: On November 10, 2025, SC was at 461.80 yuan/barrel, up 0.26% from November 7; WTI was at 60.05 dollars/barrel, up 0.35%; Brent was at 63.94 dollars/barrel, up 0.38%; OPEC's basket price remained unchanged at 64.83 dollars/barrel [8]. - **Spot Prices**: Various crude oil spot prices showed different changes, such as Oman up 0.41%, Dubai up 0.95%, etc. [8]. - **Spreads**: SC - Brent spread decreased by 3.09% to 0.94 dollars/barrel; SC - WTI spread remained unchanged; Brent - WTI spread increased by 0.78% to 3.89 dollars/barrel; SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread decreased by 41.67% to - 3.40 yuan/barrel [8]. - **Other Assets**: The US dollar index rose by 0.08% to 99.62; the S&P 500 rose by 1.54% to 6,832.43 points; the DAX index rose by 1.65% to 23,959.99 points; the RMB exchange rate remained stable [8]. - **Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 1.25% to 42,116,800 barrels; Cushing inventory increased by 1.33% to 2,286,500 barrels; US strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.12% to 40,959,500 barrels; API inventory increased by 1.47% to 45,043,900 barrels [8]. - **开工**: The weekly operating rate of US refineries decreased by 0.69% to 86.00%; the crude oil processing volume of US refineries increased by 0.24% to 1,525,600 barrels/day [8]. 3.2.2 Fuel Oil - **Futures Prices**: FU was at 2,693.00 yuan/ton, down 0.07% from November 7; LU was at 3,280.00 yuan/ton, up 0.18%; NYMEX fuel oil was at 249.51 cents/gallon, up 0.52% [9]. - **Spot Prices**: Most spot prices remained unchanged, such as IF0380 in Singapore and Rotterdam, MDO in Singapore and Rotterdam, etc. [9]. - **Paper Prices**: High - sulfur 180 in Singapore (near - month) decreased by 0.46% to 376.78 dollars/ton; high - sulfur 380 in Singapore (near - month) decreased by 0.17% to 371.43 dollars/ton [9]. - **Spreads**: The China high - low sulfur spread increased by 1.38% to 587.00 yuan/ton; LU - Singapore FOB (0.5%S) increased by 0.32% to - 1,887.00 yuan/ton; FU - Singapore 380CST decreased by 0.11% to - 1,780.00 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inventory**: Singapore's inventory decreased by 1.21% to 2,448,200 barrels [9]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations 3.3.1 Supply - On November 10, Zhonggang Petroleum (International) Group Co., Ltd. and AralPetroleum Capital LLP entered into a memorandum of understanding to explore potential cooperation in oil well exploration and production in Kazakh oil fields. - On November 10, Iraq's SOMO cancelled 3 batches of crude oil cargoes of Lukoil scheduled for November shipment. - On November 10, Lukoil announced force majeure for the West Qurna - 2 project in Iraq and warned that it might withdraw from the project if the situation continued [10][11]. 3.3.2 Demand - On November 10, the new round of refined oil price adjustment window was opened, and domestic gasoline and diesel prices increased slightly due to international oil price fluctuations [12]. 3.3.3 Market Information - Starting from next year, air passengers departing from Singapore will pay a green fuel tax of up to S$41.60 (US$31.95), which may suppress the consumption of jet fuel in the Asia - Pacific region [14].