成本支撑弱化叠加累库压力，PX及PTA延续弱势运行 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 09月30日，PX 主力合约收6570.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌1.5%，基差 为-97.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4594.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌1.25%， 基差为6.0元/吨。 成本端，09月30日，布油主力合约收盘66.77美元/桶。WTI收63.18美元/ 桶。需求端，09月30日，轻纺城成交总量为1230.0万米，15 日平均成交为 865.67万米。 供给端 ：PX及PTA供应端整体呈宽松态势。PX基差持续走弱反映出当前现 货市场供应过剩压力，尽管近期国内部分PX装置出现短停检修，但整体开 工率仍维持在相对高位，供应压力难以有效缓解。PTA方面，加工费持续低 位导致工厂减产意愿增强，但高库存背景下部分装置降负仍不足扭转供需 格局，叠加未来新装置投产计划，供应压力将延续。 需求端 ：下游聚酯需求呈现边际转弱迹象。轻纺 ...

乙二醇供应增量叠加需求疲弱，盘面维持弱势 一、日度市场总结 主力合约与基差 ：乙二醇主力合约价格从4224元/吨小幅下跌至 4207元/吨，跌幅0.4%，日内波动区间收窄，显示市场观望情绪增 强。华东现货价格同步回落20元/吨至4275元/吨，但基差从76元/ 吨扩大至93元/吨，表明现货市场短期支撑力度强于期货。跨期价 差方面，1-5价差继续走弱至-75元/吨，反映远月合约预期承压， 而5-9价差大幅反弹47元/吨至-33元/吨，暗示中期供需矛盾或边 际缓解。 持仓与成交 ：主力合约持仓量减少6856手至31.4万手，但成交量大幅增长 18%至13.7万手，显示部分资金离场但市场活跃度提升，短期多空博弈加 剧。 供给端 ：乙二醇总体开工率回升1.5个百分点至71.31%，主要因油制路线 开工率提升2.5个百分点至76.94%，而煤制开工率维持62.95%不变。油制利 润仍处于深度亏损但边际未恶化，煤制利润稳定在-574元/吨，成本端压力 未见明显缓解。 需求端 ：下游聚酯工厂负荷持稳于89.42%，江浙织机负荷维持63.43%，终 端订单未现季节性改善，聚酯产销平淡导致原料采购以刚需为主，需求端 缺乏向上驱 ...

印尼铜矿变动节内持续发酵，外盘铜持续吸引资金 一、日度市场总结 铜期货市场数据变动分析 持仓与成交 ： 库存数据呈现分化：LME铜库存单日增加1220吨（+4.77%），但SHFE库存微 降500吨（-0.35%），COMEX库存小幅累积。LME(0-3)贴水收窄至-29.22美 元/吨。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ： 主力合约与基差 ： 截至9月30日，SHFE铜主力合约价格大幅走高至83280元/吨，较前一日上涨 1.23%；LME铜价同步上扬至10428.5美元/吨，较9月24日累计上涨223.5美 元。现货升贴水方面，升水铜升水幅度从25元/吨大幅提升至70元/吨，平 水铜及湿法铜贴水收窄，显示现货市场情绪回暖，基差整体走强。 需求端 ： 国内基建项目开工提速带动电力用铜需求，9月空调排产同比增15%，但地 产竣工数据仍疲软。海外方面，欧洲制造业PMI连续三月低于荣枯线，压制 出口订单；美联储加息预期升温导致美元指数走强，抑制海外投机性买 盘。 库存端 ： 秘 鲁 Las Bambas 铜 矿 于 9 月 29 日 宣 布 恢 复 运 营 ， 但 智 利 Codelco 旗 下 Chuquic ...

长假平稳度过，锂矿权证进度本月仍需重点关注 一、日度市场总结 碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：碳酸锂主力合约9月30日收于72800元/吨，较前一交易 日下跌1.52%。基差显著走强，从-820元/吨回升至300元/吨。 持仓与成交 ：主力合约持仓量减少7.86%至23.2万手，成交量大幅收缩 31.82%至31.7万手。 市场小结 短期碳酸锂市场或延续低位震荡格局。供给端新增产能释放与存量高开工 率形成压制，而需求端新能源汽车销量增长及六氟磷酸锂价格反弹提供底 部支撑。基差走强反映现货压力边际缓解，但仓单压力仍存。未来1-2周需 重点关注节后补库节奏与盐湖新产能爬坡速度，以及江西地区8个锂矿的后 续信息，当前市场传闻，已有一家企业通过储量报告审批，剩余企业仍需 关注。 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn 孙皓 从业编号：F03118712 投资咨询：Z0019405 sunhao@thqh.com.cn 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：锂辉石和锂云母精矿价格维持稳定，但头 ...

港口累库压制供需僵持，乙二醇延续弱势运行 一、日度市场总结 主力合约与基差 ：乙二醇主力合约价格延续弱势，9月26日收于4213元/ 吨，较前一日下跌33元，周内跌幅扩大至0.78%。华东现货价格同步走弱至 4275元/吨，基差小幅走强至77元/吨，反映现货端相对期货的支撑有所增 强。跨期价差波动剧烈，5-9价差单日下跌201元至-66元/吨，显示市场对 远期供需预期转向悲观。 持仓与成交 ：主力合约成交量和持仓量分别增加27.59%和2.62%，持仓增 至32.6万手，资金博弈加剧。 供给端 ：乙二醇总体开工率维持69.78%的稳定水平，油制及煤制开工率分 别持稳于74.39%和62.95%。煤制利润进一步恶化至-584元/吨，亏损扩大可 能压制煤化工装置复产意愿，但当前供应尚未明显收缩。 需求端 ：下游聚酯工厂负荷维持89.42%高位，江浙织机负荷稳定于 63.43%，终端需求季节性改善有限，聚酯产销平淡导致对乙二醇的刚性采 购为主，缺乏增量驱动。 库存端 ：华东主港库存攀升至48.57万吨，周环比增加13.7%，张家港库存 激增40.6%至18万吨，到港量下降但港口发货速度放缓，显性库存压力显著 上升， ...

聚酯需求温和回暖，高库存压制PTA价格反弹 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 09月26日，PX 主力合约收6656.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌0.27%，基差 为-153.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4646.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌0.68%， 基差为-46.0元/吨。 成本端，09月26日，布油主力合约收盘68.82美元/桶。WTI收65.19美元/ 桶。需求端，09月26日，轻纺城成交总量为988.0万米，15 日平均成交为 774.4万米。 供给端 ：PX供应端压力边际增强，部分炼厂原料切换以及国内新装置投产 预期逐步落地，导致现货流动性宽松；叠加原油价格持续回落，PX成本支 撑弱化。PTA方面，短期装置重启与新产能投产并行，行业开工率维持中高 位，现货供应整体充裕，而加工费偏低或抑制后续装置负荷提升弹性。 需求端 ：聚酯需求存在结构性分化，尽管轻纺城周内成交数据环比改善， 但其对涤纶长丝备货周期的指引仍需验 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report Copper prices will remain high in the near future due to the Indonesian copper mine accident, with increased volatility. However, approaching the National Day holiday, it is recommended to reduce positions in single-sided Shanghai copper positions. The expected release of new production capacity will suppress long-term prices, but short-term restocking at the smelting end will support spot prices. On the demand side, high prices and the National Day holiday will lead to a decline in production, making the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season less prominent. Macroscopically, the issuance of policies to stabilize growth in the non-ferrous industry by eight domestic departments may boost market confidence, but high copper prices will intensify the wait-and-see sentiment among downstream enterprises [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: From September 22 to September 26, the SHFE main contract price rose slightly from 79,990 yuan/ton to 82,490 yuan/ton and then declined slightly, while the LME copper price dropped from $10,320/ton to $10,205/ton, indicating pressure on the external market. In terms of spot premiums and discounts, the premium of premium copper shrank significantly from 95 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton, and the discounts of flat copper and wet-process copper widened to -40 yuan/ton and -105 yuan/ton respectively, reflecting the weakening of the spot market. The LME (0 - 3) discount also widened to -$33.91/ton, and the basis weakened overall [1]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The LME copper position increased from 295,609 lots on September 22 to 297,660 lots on September 26, an increase of 0.69%. The SHFE inventory decreased slightly by 25 tons to 144,400 tons, while the COMEX inventory increased by 1,228 short tons to 322,284 short tons [2]. (2) Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: Argentina approved a $2.7 billion Los Azules copper mine project, and Ningbo Jintian Copper's 100,000 - ton A - grade copper registered production capacity was implemented, strengthening the medium - and long - term supply increase expectation. However, short - term smelting disturbances were limited, and the raw material inventory of domestic refined copper rod enterprises increased by 2.21% month - on - month [3]. - **Demand Side**: Terminal demand in industries such as electricity, construction, and automobiles was weak. Copper cable enterprises slowed down downstream pick - up due to copper prices reaching 83,000 yuan/ton, and their finished product inventory increased by 10.66% month - on - month. The operating rate of enameled machines decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 77.73% month - on - month, and the pre - holiday inventory of brass rod enterprises was significantly lower than that of the same period last year. In addition, approaching the National Day holiday, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was expected to decrease by 9.74 percentage points to 64.04% month - on - month [4]. - **Inventory Side**: The LME inventory decreased continuously, reaching 26,557 tons on September 26, a decrease of 3.99% compared to the previous week. However, the SHFE inventory remained at a high level of 144,000 tons, and the COMEX inventory continued to accumulate, resulting in a differentiated pressure on global visible inventories. The finished product inventory of domestic refined copper rod enterprises rose to 78,900 tons [5]. 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring | Data Index | September 26, 2025 | September 25, 2025 | September 22, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM: 1 Copper | 82,660 | 82,520 | 80,140 | 140 | 0.17% | yuan/ton | | Premium Copper (Spot Premium/Discount) | 40 | 80 | 95 | -40 | -50.00% | yuan/ton | | Flat Copper (Spot Premium/Discount) | -40 | -10 | 15 | -30 | -300.00% | yuan/ton | | Wet - Process Copper (Spot Premium/Discount) | -105 | -60 | -35 | -45 | -75.00% | yuan/ton | | LME (0 - 3) | -34 | -32 | -31 | -2 | -7.48% | dollars/ton | | SHFE Price | 82,490 | 82,540 | 79,990 | -50 | -0.06% | yuan/ton | | LME Price | 10,205 | 10,276 | 10,320 | -71 | -0.69% | dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 26,557 | 27,662 | 27,419 | -1,105 | -3.99% | tons | | SHFE Inventory | 144,400 | 144,425 | 144,775 | -25 | -0.02% | tons | | COMEX Inventory | 322,284 | 321,056 | 318,229 | 1,228 | 0.38% | short tons | [9] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On September 26, Argentina approved a $2.7 billion Los Azules copper mine project invested by Canadian mining company McEwen Copper, and McEwen Copper enjoys the tax exemption plan of the large - scale investment incentive system (RIGI) [10]. - It is expected that the operating rate of domestic main refined copper rod enterprises will drop to 64.04% next week (September 26 - October 2), a month - on - month decrease of 9.74 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.14 percentage points. The main reasons are that high copper prices suppress downstream inventory demand and enterprises' pre - stocked inventory has not been significantly digested. In addition, the National Day holiday in the next week will lead to centralized production holidays of many enterprises [10]. - From September 19 to September 25, domestic main refined copper rod enterprises mainly focused on production and inventory, so the raw material inventory increased by 2.21% month - on - month, reaching 32,400 tons, and the finished product inventory increased by 10.66% month - on - month, reaching 78,900 tons [10]. - From September 19 to September 25, the operating rate of domestic main refined copper rod enterprises rose to 73.78%, a month - on - month increase of 3.28 percentage points, 0.09 percentage points lower than expected, and a year - on - year decrease of 11.14 percentage points [10]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange approved the registration of "Jintian Copper" brand A - grade copper produced by Ningbo Jintian Copper (Group) Co., Ltd., with a registered production capacity of 100,000 tons, and it can be used for the performance settlement of the cathode copper futures contract [11]. 4. Industry Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper price, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper price, TC processing fees, CFTC copper position, LME copper net long position analysis, Shanghai copper warehouse receipt volume, LME copper inventory change, COMEX copper inventory change, and SMM social inventory [12][16][18].

OPEC+或于十月继续增产，原油维持震荡 一、日度市场总结 原油期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：2025年9月26日，SC主力合约小幅上涨0.14%至491.3元/ 桶，WTI微跌0.05%至65.19美元/桶，Brent微升0.03%至68.82美元/桶。价 差方面，SC-Brent小幅收窄0.01美元至0.04美元/桶，SC-WTI价差走强0.04 美元至3.67美元/桶，Brent-WTI价差扩大0.05美元至3.63美元/桶，显示欧 美市场对轻质原油的溢价增强。SC连续-连3价差进一步走弱0.8元至-4.3 元/桶，反映近月合约承压。 持仓与成交 ：洲际交易所数据显示，截至9月23日当周，布伦特原油投机 净多头头寸减少11,592手至220,579手，柴油净多头头寸削减3,817手至 114,507手，显示市场对能源品后市的谨慎情绪升温。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：OPEC+可能于10月5日会议上批准至少13.7万桶/日的增产，叠加 伊拉克库尔德地区石油出口恢复，预计未来原油供应边际增加。但乌克兰 对俄罗斯楚瓦什输油泵站的袭击及炼油厂攻击事件，或加剧俄罗斯原油出 口的不确定性。此外， ...

能源化工 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2025 年 9 月 29 日 星期一 纯苯远期累库难改，苯乙烯供需错配加剧 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 （1）基本面 价格：9 月 26 日苯乙烯主力合约收跌 0.13%，报 6949 元/吨，基差 -34（-17 吨）；纯苯主力合约收跌 0.32%，报 5903 元/吨。 成本：9 月 26 日布油主力收盘 65.0 美元/桶（+0 美元/桶），WTI 原 油主力合约收盘 68.6 美元/桶（+0.1 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报价 5870 元/吨（-15 元/吨）。 苯乙烯库存 18.7 万吨（+2.8 万吨），环比累库 17.3%，苯乙烯转为 累库。纯苯港口库存 10.7 万吨（-2.7 万吨），环比去库 20.1%。 供应：苯乙烯已有装置开始检修，开工率及供应如期减少。目前， 苯乙烯周产量 34.6 万吨（-0.1 万吨），工厂产能利用率 73.2%（- 0.2%）。 需求：下游 3S 开工率变化不一，其中 EPS 产能利用率 55.2%（- 6.49%），ABS 产能利用率 70%（+0.2%），PS 产能利用率 59.1%（- 2.1% ...

锂辉石增量填补云母矿空缺，碳酸锂短期仍难北上 一、日度市场总结 碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：碳酸锂主力合约9月26日报72880元/吨，较前一日下跌 1160元。基差大幅走强至620元/吨，较前一日逆转1160元。 短期碳酸锂期货尚未能获得边际驱动以突破74000点压制。供给端新增产能 释放与海外锂矿成本优化形成潜在利空，但需求端新能源汽车销量增长及 正极材料价格走强提供支撑。基差走强显示期现结构修复需求，节前下游 点价采购或限制下行空间，但持仓量收缩表明资金对突破前高缺乏信心。 重点关注国庆后补库节奏及扎布耶盐湖项目实际爬产进度，若需求增速不 及供给释放，价格中枢存在小幅下移风险。 1/7 持仓与成交 ：主力合约持仓量减少4.79%至24.86万手，创近五日新低；但 成交量大幅增长40.35%至48.1万手，表明价格波动吸引短线交易活跃。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：锂辉石精矿价格维持在6390元/吨，澳洲Core锂业完成Finniss项 目重启研究，采矿成本降低40%，未来或增强锂辉石供给弹性。西藏矿业扎 布耶盐湖万吨级碳酸锂项目正式投产，叠加天齐锂业张家港3万吨氢氧化锂 项目竣 ...