联储证券-2月财政数据点评：收入负增，中央支出拉动财政支出改善

Revenue Insights - General public budget revenue for January to February decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, indicating a slow recovery in the economic fundamentals[1] - Tax revenue fell by 3.9% year-on-year, marking a continuous decline, while non-tax revenue grew by 11%[1][2] - Corporate income tax saw a significant drop of 10.4% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing challenges in corporate operations[1][2] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure increased by 2.9% year-on-year, with central government expenditure growing at a higher rate of 8.6%[2][3] - Local government expenditure growth remained low at 2.7%, contributing to the overall sluggish fiscal expenditure growth[2][3] - The ratio of general public budget expenditure to revenue reached 102.8%, indicating a higher spending level compared to previous years[2][3] Fund and Debt Management - Land transfer revenue continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 15.7%, reflecting a weak real estate market[2][3] - Government fund revenue fell by 10.7% year-on-year, with expenditure growth at 1.2%[2][3] - The government plans to issue 11.86 trillion yuan in new debt for 2025, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year[3][4] Policy Outlook - The government aims for a more proactive fiscal policy, with a target deficit rate of around 4% for 2025, leading to a deficit of 5.66 trillion yuan[3][4] - Continued emphasis on infrastructure and social spending is expected to support economic recovery[3][4]