国信证券-2025年1~2月财政数据快评：开年财政收入承压

Revenue Analysis - National general public budget revenue for January-February 2025 was 43,856 billion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year, compared to a 1.3% increase last year[3] - Tax revenue decreased by 3.9% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 11%[3] - Major tax categories showed a decline, with corporate income tax down 10.4% and value-added tax growth slowing to 1.1%[4][11] Expenditure Insights - General public budget expenditure for January-February 2025 was 45,096 billion yuan, up 3.4% year-on-year, but down from 9.5% in December 2024[4][15] - Infrastructure-related expenditure saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.6%[20] - Social welfare expenditure grew by 5.4%, with education spending increasing by 7.7%[20] Government Fund Budget - Government fund revenue decreased by 10.7% year-on-year, slightly improving from a 12.2% decline last year[5][25] - Land transfer income fell by 15.7%, reflecting a significant drop compared to the previous December's 0.7% increase[5][25] Fiscal Policy Implications - The fiscal policy intensity index continues to rise, with broad expenditure growth at 2.9% and broad revenue growth at -2.9%[29] - The fiscal policy intensity index showed fluctuations in 2024, with a rebound after the introduction of growth-stabilizing policies in September[29]