中银国际-1~2月财政数据点评：广义财政支出靠前发力

Revenue Insights - In January-February, the national general public budget revenue was CNY 43,856.0 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, with the decline expanding by 2.9 percentage points compared to the previous year[1] - Central government budget revenue fell to CNY 19,499.0 billion, down 5.8% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 6.7 percentage points[1] - Local government budget revenue increased by 2.0% year-on-year, reaching CNY 24,357.0 billion, with the growth rate expanding by 0.3 percentage points[1] Tax Contributions - Personal income tax contributed positively to the tax revenue growth, achieving a contribution of 2.3 percentage points, with a month-on-month improvement of 2.4 percentage points[7] - Domestic value-added tax turned from negative to positive, contributing 0.4 percentage points to tax revenue growth, with a month-on-month improvement of 1.9 percentage points[2] - Corporate income tax showed a negative contribution of -2.8 percentage points due to the impact of the Spring Festival, with a month-on-month decline of 2.7 percentage points[2] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure reached CNY 45,096.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.2 percentage points[9] - Central government budget expenditure grew by 8.6% year-on-year to CNY 5,242.0 billion, with the growth rate expanding by 2.1 percentage points[9] - Local government budget expenditure increased by 2.7% year-on-year, totaling CNY 39,854.0 billion, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.5 percentage points[9] Focus on Social Welfare - Social security and employment expenditures contributed 1.2 percentage points to the growth of general public budget expenditure, with a month-on-month improvement of 0.4 percentage points[10] - The shift in fiscal expenditure towards "benefiting people's livelihoods" indicates a strategic focus on social welfare[10] Overall Fiscal Performance - General fiscal revenue and expenditure for January-February were CNY 50,237.0 billion and CNY 56,454.0 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -2.9% and 2.9%[15] - The expenditure growth rate outpaced revenue growth, indicating a proactive fiscal policy approach[15] - The government plans to implement a more active fiscal policy with a target deficit rate of around 4% for the year, suggesting an increase in fiscal spending[15]