煤价偏弱，静待需求恢复

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [4] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has shown a relative performance improvement, with a decrease of 0.86% last week, outperforming the benchmark index (CSI 300) by 1.43 percentage points [6] - Domestic thermal coal prices are under pressure due to seasonal demand weakness, while overseas prices are recovering [7] - CCTD Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal market price is 680 RMB/ton, down 1.45% week-on-week [7] - Focus on companies with high long-term contract ratios and stable operations, such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, as well as undervalued coking coal enterprises [9] Market Review - The coal sector's PE valuation is at 10.43 times, at the 51.96 percentile over the past decade, while the PB valuation is at 1.23 times, at the 30.59 percentile [6] - The coal sector has experienced relative returns of -17% over the past month, -10% over three months, and -21% over twelve months [5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic thermal coal supply is tightening, with production potentially affected by safety inspections in major mining areas [7] - Coking coal prices are declining, but demand is gradually improving as downstream construction activities resume [8] - The demand for non-electric industries (like steel and chemicals) is expected to seasonally rebound, which may offset the decline in heating demand [9]