海螺水泥（600585）：周期底部龙头逆势扩张，看好水泥复价带动公司利润向上

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [8][5]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the cement industry, expanding its operations despite being at the bottom of the cycle. The recovery in cement prices is anticipated to drive profit growth [1][2]. - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the year 2024, with total revenue of 91.03 billion yuan and a net profit of 7.70 billion yuan, representing year-on-year decreases of 35.51% and 26.19%, respectively [1][5]. - The company has ongoing expansion projects, including new production facilities in both domestic and international markets, which are expected to enhance its capacity and market presence [2][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's self-produced cement and clinker revenue decreased by 12.89% to 73.21 billion yuan, with sales volume down by 6.05% to 268 million tons. The average price per ton fell by 21.7 yuan to 273.2 yuan/ton, while the cost per ton decreased by 13.7 yuan to 205.4 yuan/ton, resulting in a gross profit of 67.8 yuan/ton, down by 8.1 yuan [2]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 21.70%, an increase of 5.14 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 8.42%, up by 0.79 percentage points [4]. - The company plans to reduce capital expenditures in 2025 to 11.98 billion yuan, a 23% decrease from 2024, while expecting to add significant new production capacity in aggregates and concrete [3][5]. Future Outlook - The company aims for a net sales volume of 268 million tons for cement and clinker in 2025, with stable cost and expense per ton. The anticipated rise in cement prices is expected to contribute positively to profit growth [3]. - The company has a robust dividend policy, with a commitment to return at least 50% of net profits to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks over the next three years [5].