ACC(600585) 东吴证券·2025-03-25 10:33Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the self-discipline on the supply side of the cement industry has led to a rebound in profits from the bottom [8] - The company achieved total revenue of 91.03 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 35.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.696 billion yuan, down 26.2% year-on-year [12] - The report emphasizes the company's cost advantages and the effectiveness of supply-side discipline in stabilizing cement prices [13][14] Summary by Sections Event - The company disclosed its 2024 annual report, reporting total revenue of 91.03 billion yuan, a decrease of 35.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 7.696 billion yuan, down 26.2% year-on-year. The fourth quarter alone saw revenue of 22.879 billion yuan, a decrease of 45.5% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 42.3% to 2.498 billion yuan [12] Commentary - The self-discipline in the cement industry has led to a rebound in profits in Q4. The company's sales volume of cement and clinker was 268 million tons, down 6.1% year-on-year, with an average price of 246 yuan per ton, a gross profit of 59 yuan, and a net profit of 29 yuan per ton, all showing declines. The cost per ton decreased by 18 yuan to 187 yuan due to better fuel substitution and raw material procurement [13] - Despite continued pressure on cement demand in the second half of 2024, the self-discipline in supply management has shown significant results, stabilizing national cement prices at high levels [13] - The company is expanding its overseas operations, establishing offices in Africa and South America, and increasing its clinker production capacity by 2.3 million tons [13] Financial Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is expected to demonstrate cost leadership and expand its industrial chain, providing new growth momentum. The report raises the profit forecast for 2025-2026 to 10.9 billion and 12.2 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 12.6 billion yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 12, 11, and 10 times [17]