Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Gold: Trump's policy uncertainty and changes in risk aversion due to geopolitical conflicts drive gold price changes. It is recommended to maintain a bullish and volatile mindset, buy on dips, and avoid chasing high prices. Pay attention to the $2,850/oz level for spot London gold and the 650 yuan/g level for the main Shanghai gold contract [10]. - Silver: Silver prices generally follow gold prices, but due to concerns about the US economic situation and weak domestic demand, silver prices are relatively weaker than gold prices. Continue to look for opportunities to go long on the gold-silver ratio [11]. - Copper: The market expects a US tariff cut, and the futures and spot markets are rising in tandem. The supply side is expected to face a round of concentrated maintenance in April, and the market is worried about supply. The downstream market is hesitant to buy at high prices, and the demand potential remains. The fundamentals are relatively stable, and the sentiment is easily affected by macro news. It is necessary to verify the downstream demand [13]. - Crude Oil: OPEC+ plans to increase production in April, and Trump's tariff policy has raised concerns about the global economy. However, the US is considering repurchasing strategic oil reserves, and geopolitical factors may support oil prices. It is recommended to go long on crude oil with a light position in the near term [14][15]. - PP: The downstream demand for PP is expected to recover in March, but the new orders are limited, and the replenishment willingness is weak. It is recommended to close out the short positions in the PP05 contract and wait and see [16]. - PVC: The PVC supply is increasing, and the demand has not improved substantially. The inventory pressure is still large, but the price has fallen to a low level, and the room for further decline is limited. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level [20]. - Iron Ore: The supply pressure of iron ore is gradually increasing, and the demand still has room for growth in the short term, but the port inventory depletion pressure may gradually appear. It is recommended to take a volatile approach to iron ore in the short term [21]. - Rebar & Hot Roll: The demand for rebar and hot roll is expected to be weak in the peak season, but the supply-side crude steel reduction is intensifying, and the short positions are gradually closing out. It is expected that rebar will stabilize and rebound slightly in the short term [22]. - Coking Coal: The supply of coking coal is under pressure, and the demand has some support but lacks elasticity. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and it is recommended to close out the short positions on dips [24]. - Urea: The supply and demand of urea are both strong, and the market is consolidating at a high level. The upward momentum is insufficient, and it is waiting for new drivers [25]. Summary by Related Catalogs Asphalt - Supply: Last week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 27.2%, 5.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The planned production in March is 2.386 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 278,000 tons or 13.2% [3]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate continued to rebound, but the overall level is still low. The national shipment volume increased by 25.99% month-on-month to 229,300 tons, but it is still at a low level [3]. - Inventory: The inventory of asphalt refineries continued to increase month-on-month but is still at the lowest level in recent years. It is expected that the inventory will continue to accumulate at the beginning of the year [3]. - Price: The previous decline in crude oil prices has pressured asphalt prices, but the basis has continued to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on asphalt with a light position in the near term [3]. Plastic - Supply: The operating rate of plastic decreased to about 86%, and new production capacity has been put into operation. Some maintenance devices are expected to restart in late March [5]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate continued to rebound, but the new orders are slow to follow up, and the purchase of high-priced raw materials is cautious [5]. - Inventory: The petrochemical inventory has decreased to a relatively low level in the same period of the lunar calendar in recent years [5]. - Price: It is expected that plastic will fluctuate downward, and it is recommended to short the basis of the plastic 05 contract on rallies [5]. Futures Market Overview - Price Changes: As of the close on March 25, most domestic futures contracts rose. Glass and container shipping to Europe rose by more than 3%, and palm oil fell by more than 2% [7]. - Capital Flows: As of 15:03, the main domestic futures contracts saw capital inflows in the CSI 1000, CSI 500, and palm oil, and outflows in rebar, soybean oil, and iron ore [7][9]. Other Commodities - Silver: The London silver spot price was volatile and strong in the Asian session. The US manufacturing PMI fell below the boom-bust line, and the domestic demand for silver was weak. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on the gold-silver ratio [11]. - Copper: The Shanghai copper futures price opened higher and moved higher. The market expects a US tariff cut, and the supply side may face a round of concentrated maintenance in April. The downstream market is hesitant to buy at high prices [13]. - Crude Oil: OPEC+ plans to increase production in April, and Trump's tariff policy has raised concerns about the global economy. However, the US is considering repurchasing strategic oil reserves, and geopolitical factors may support oil prices. It is recommended to go long on crude oil with a light position in the near term [14][15]. - PP: The downstream demand for PP is expected to recover in March, but the new orders are limited, and the replenishment willingness is weak. It is recommended to close out the short positions in the PP05 contract and wait and see [16]. - PVC: The PVC supply is increasing, and the demand has not improved substantially. The inventory pressure is still large, but the price has fallen to a low level, and the room for further decline is limited. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level [20]. - Iron Ore: The supply pressure of iron ore is gradually increasing, and the demand still has room for growth in the short term, but the port inventory depletion pressure may gradually appear. It is recommended to take a volatile approach to iron ore in the short term [21]. - Rebar & Hot Roll: The demand for rebar and hot roll is expected to be weak in the peak season, but the supply-side crude steel reduction is intensifying, and the short positions are gradually closing out. It is expected that rebar will stabilize and rebound slightly in the short term [22]. - Coking Coal: The supply of coking coal is under pressure, and the demand has some support but lacks elasticity. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and it is recommended to close out the short positions on dips [24]. - Urea: The supply and demand of urea are both strong, and the market is consolidating at a high level. The upward momentum is insufficient, and it is waiting for new drivers [25].
冠通每日交易策略-2025-03-25
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-03-25 11:06