本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1790 1790 0 河南 1770 1770 0 山东 1790 1780 10 山西 1630 1630 0 江苏 1800 1790 10 安徽 1790 1780 10 黑龙江 1780 1780 0 内蒙古 1790 1790 0 河北东光 1770 1770 0 山东华鲁 1770 1760 10 江苏灵谷 1810 1810 0 安徽昊源 1740 1740 0 山东05基差 -39 -30 -9 山东01基差 -10 -8 -2 河北05基差 -29 -20 -9 河北01基差 0 2 -2 1-5价差 28 24 4 5-9价差 29 22 7 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 12690 12699 -9 中东FOB 426 426 0 美湾FOB 423.5 423.5 0 埃及FOB 462.5 462.5 0 波罗的海FOB 405 405 0 巴西CFR 432.5 432.5 0 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 仓单 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 尿素日报：回吐涨幅 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 30 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素高开低走，下跌超 1%。前几日收单情况尚佳，今日现货报价依然 上涨，预收支撑下，价格维稳。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂报 价范围多在 1720-1760 元/吨，河南工厂价格偏低端。基本面来看，2 月份初依 然有复产气头装置，目前暂无检修安排，上游装置提供尿素产量充裕，日产已 接近 21 万吨附近。农业经销商拿货积极，冬腊肥及小麦返青追肥拿货环比增 多，但目前临近春节，下游工厂放假增多，本期复合肥工厂开工负荷下调，环 比减少 1.62%，但同比依然偏高 19.34%。库存本期虽继续去化，但变动量极 低，随着上游产量的增加，上下游产销基本平衡，但农需逐渐启动，库存少许 去化。今日盘面下跌，回吐此前涨幅，宏观环境偏弱势，下周预计农需肥拿货 进入积极阶段，供需紧平衡状态下，尿素期货盘面大概率有较强的抗跌性，高 位整理为主。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2605 合约 1817 元/吨开盘, 日内高开低走，下跌 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡运行 【行情分析】 1月30日，茂名石化HDPE等检修装置重启开车，塑料开工率上涨至90%左右，目前开工率处于中 性水平。截至1月30日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降1.77个百分点至37.76%，农膜订单和农膜原料库 存小幅减少，处于近年同期中性水平，包装膜订单同样小幅减少，整体PE下游开工率仍处于近年农 历同期偏低位水平。临近月底，石化去库较快，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏低水平。成本端，寒 冷天气推动柴油取暖需求，需求担忧有所缓解，加上伊朗地缘局势升温，原油价格上涨。供应上， 新增产能50万吨/年的巴斯夫（广东）FDPE和30万吨/年的裕龙石化LDPE/EVA在2026年1月投产。近期塑 料开工率略有上升。地膜集中需求尚未开启，温度下降，终端施工放缓，北方需求减少，北方棚膜 生产基本停滞，农膜价格继续稳定，部分行业进入淡季，农膜和包装膜开工率下降，预计后续下游 开工率继续下降，临近春节放假，节前备货有限，终端工厂刚需采购为主。低估值、寒冷天气及伊 朗地缘局势推动下，化工板块情绪好转，塑料短期跟随市场情绪偏强震荡，只是塑料供需格局改善 有限，现货跟进有限，基差走低，塑料反弹 ...

【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加0.19个百分点至78.93%，PVC开工 率小幅增加，处于近年同期中性水平。临近春节，PVC下游开工率环比下降0.11个百分点，但下游主 动备货意愿偏低。出口方面，受取消出口退税影响，市场出现抢出口现象，PVC出口签单大幅增加， 升至近年来的高位，随着出口价格上涨，成交阻力增大，不过，美国面临寒潮冲击之下，国内出口 签单继续环比小幅走高，中国台湾台塑PVC 2月份出口船货报价上涨40美元/吨。本周社会库存继续增 加，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-12月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、施 工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度 成交面积环比回落，仍处于近年同期最低水平附近，房地产改善仍需时间。化工板块情绪提振，氯 碱综合毛利承压，部分生产企业开工预期下降，但目前产量下降有限，本周福建万华、山东恒通仍 在检修，PVC开工率变化不大，期货仓单仍处高位。1月是国内PVC传统需求淡季，临近春节假期，下 游采购积极性一般，社会库存继续增加，PVC盘面波动大，建议谨慎观望。 【期现 ...

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - As of the close on January 30, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Platinum and palladium dropped nearly 12%, lithium carbonate hit the daily limit down with a 10.99% decline, and tin futures fell over 8%. PVC rose over 3% and logs rose over 2%. In the bond market, the 2 - year Treasury futures (TS) main contract remained flat, the 5 - year (TF) rose 0.01%, the 10 - year (T) rose 0.06%, and the 30 - year (TL) fell 0.23%. In terms of funds, PVC2605, ten - year bond 2603, and pulp 2605 had capital inflows, while Shanghai gold 2604, Shanghai silver 2604, and CSI 2603 had capital outflows [4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on January 30, domestic futures main contracts mostly declined. Platinum, palladium, lithium carbonate, tin, silver, gold, and other metals fell, while PVC and logs rose. In the stock index futures, IF, IH, IC, and IM all declined, and in the bond futures, there were different trends. As of 15:20 on January 30, PVC2605, ten - year bond 2603, and pulp 2605 had capital inflows, while Shanghai gold 2604, Shanghai silver 2604, and CSI 2603 had capital outflows [4][5] Market Analysis Copper - Shanghai copper opened high but closed lower. Supply was affected by a strike at a Chilean copper mine, and the TC/RC fees were weak and trending down. SMM expected a 1.23% month - on - month decrease in domestic electrolytic copper production in January. Demand showed that copper apparent consumption increased in December 2025, but near the Spring Festival and with high copper prices, SMEs' procurement willingness was low. The real estate policy change was positive, and the possible change of the Fed chairman and dollar depreciation affected the market. After a previous rise, profit - taking led to a downward turn [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and hit the daily limit down. The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate declined. Supply was affected by a planned restart of some production lines and the suspension of a lithium mine. The export tax - rebate policy for batteries was adjusted. Inventory was being depleted, and downstream production schedules in the first quarter were expected to be good. However, terminal new - energy vehicle sales declined in January, and after a meeting, the market was affected by negative news [9] Crude Oil - OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan in February and March 2026. Due to winter storms, US crude oil inventories decreased more than expected, and production losses reached up to 2 million barrels per day. The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast, and cold weather increased diesel demand. However, the global crude oil floating storage was high, and the supply was still in surplus. Geopolitical risks in Iran continued to rise, and the situation in Kazakhstan's oil fields was improving. Crude oil prices were oscillating strongly [10][11] Asphalt - The asphalt开工率 decreased to 25.5% this week, and the February production was expected to decline. Downstream开工率 mostly fell, and the national shipments decreased. The refinery inventory rate remained at a low level. The supply of Venezuelan heavy crude to domestic refineries was restricted, but the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining it increased. In the short term, asphalt was expected to oscillate strongly, and the arbitrage suggestion was reverse arbitrage [12][13] PP - The PP downstream开工率 decreased to 52.08% this week. The enterprise开工率 fell to 78.5%, and the proportion of standard - grade drawing production increased. Petrochemical inventories were at a low level. With rising crude oil prices, PP was expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the improvement in the supply - demand pattern was limited, and the sustainability of the rebound was to be treated with caution. The L - PP spread was expected to decline [14] Plastic - The plastic开工率 rose to 90% on January 30. The PE downstream开工率 decreased to 37.76%, and orders and raw - material inventories in the agricultural film and packaging film sectors decreased. Petrochemical inventories were at a low level. With rising crude oil prices, plastic was expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the supply - demand improvement was limited, and the L - PP spread was expected to decline [15][16] PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price in the northwest was stable. The PVC开工率 increased slightly to 78.93%, and the downstream开工率 decreased slightly. PVC exports increased due to the cancellation of export tax - rebates, but the transaction resistance increased. Social inventories continued to rise, and the real estate market was still in adjustment. The PVC market was volatile, and caution was advised [17] Coking Coal - Coking coal opened and closed higher. As the Spring Festival approached, domestic mines started holidays, and the mine inventory started to accumulate. Downstream iron - water production decreased slightly, and the first round of coke price increase was implemented. The market sentiment was volatile, and the coking coal price was expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [19] Urea - Urea opened high and closed lower, falling over 1%. The spot price was stable due to good pre - sales. In February, there would be复产 of gas - head devices, and the daily output was close to 210,000 tons. Agricultural dealers' purchases increased, but downstream factory开工率 decreased. Inventory decreased slightly. In the short term, the urea futures market was expected to be resistant to decline and mainly trade in a high - level range [20]

3、基差价差端：青岛港 PB 粉折盘面价格 830.4 元/吨，基差 38.7 元/吨， 基差小幅走扩；铁矿 5-9 价差 19 元，铁矿 9-1 价差 12.5 元，铁矿期货合约呈 现 back 结构+正基差，期货盘面仍以震荡偏强思路对待。 二、基本面梳理 海外矿山发运有所增加，主要是澳洲有所修复，巴西和非主流国家仍有下 滑；本期到港继续走弱，前期发运下降传导至到港，由于天气影响供给端存扰 动预期；需求端，铁水产量环比略降，钢厂盈利率有所走弱，刚需偏稳，钢厂 补库速度加快，钢厂库存快速累积，关注节前铁水恢复高度和补库需求释放节 奏。库存方面，港口继续累库，压港库存下降，钢厂库存大幅增加，春节临近 补库速度加快，总库存压力仍在积累。 到港减量，短期供应压力稍缓，库存压力仍在增加，商品情绪偏强，需求 端节前补库支撑矿价，现实方面供需两端仍有待验证。 【冠通期货研究报告】 铁矿日报：下游累库，刚需存支撑 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 30 日 一、市场行情态势回顾 1、期货价格：铁矿石期货主力合约日内震荡，收于 791.5 元/吨，较前一 个交易日收盘价有所回落-7 元/吨，跌幅-0.88%，成交 27.8 万 ...

一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：螺纹钢主力合约周五持仓量减仓 51271 手，成交量相比上 一交易日放量，成交量 1218321 手。日均线来看跌破短期 5 日均线，中期 30 日 均线，最低 3124，最高 3174，收于 3128 元/吨，下跌 15 元/吨，跌幅 0.48%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上螺纹钢现货 HRB400E 20mm 报价 3260 元/吨， 相比上一交易日维稳。 【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：震荡延续 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 30 日 供应端：截至 1 月 29 日当周，螺纹钢产量环比上升 0.28 万吨至 199.83 万吨，公历同比上升 22.16 万吨，产量本周小幅回升，且同比去年 同期显著增长，反映钢厂复产动能加快，短期压制价格，后续需要继续关 注产能恢复力度能否持续。 需求端：表需环比下滑（符合春节前工地停工的季节性规律），同 比大幅增长，说明需求同比回暖，截至 1 月 29 日当周，表需数据 176.4 万 吨，周环比减少 9.12 万吨，年同比增加 97.85 万吨，整体需求相比去年大 幅增加，显示有韧性。节前仍然有冬储备货需求支撑。 库存端：总库存环比上升 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 芳烃日报：延续偏强走势，谨防回调风险 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 30 日 【基本面分析】 1、截至 1 月 27 日，1 月苯乙烯华东江苏主流库区总库存量在 9.45-12.33 万吨区间波动。苯乙烯华东主要港口的库存整体仍处于历史低位区间，现货流通 性仍偏紧。 2、从下游三大领域（EPS、PS 和 ABS）的生产情况来看，截至 1 月 22 日当 周，EPS 产能利用率 58.71%，环比增长 4.66%，下游需求淡季，商家追涨情绪谨 慎，整体成交氛围欠佳。 3、 PS 产能利用率 57.3%，环比下降 0.1%，南京装置恢复、广西长科重启， 但连云港石化、宁波利万各减 1 条线，行业供应暂时稳定，行业总供应量平稳， 市场出货一般，库存转为上涨。 4、 ABS 产能利用率 66.8%，环比下降 3%，厂家供应依旧十分紧张，控量发 货为主，且进入 1 月份后多为高价货源，节后归来市场询盘问价增多，成交放量， 价格呈现反弹。此外，UPR 产能利用率 38%，环比下降 1%；丁苯橡胶开工 82.92%， 环比持稳。 【宏观面分析】 美联储 1 月议息：按下暂停键，维持利率在 3.5-3 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the glass industry is "short - term shock" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply - demand contradiction in the glass market has not been substantially improved. The short - term price may fluctuate, but there is a possibility of weakening in the later stage. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - In the futures market, the glass main contract opened high and went low, showing a short - term shock signal. The trading volume increased by 361,000 lots and the open interest increased by 43,145 lots compared with the previous day. The closing price was 1056 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton or 1.95% from the previous settlement price [1] - In the spot market, the situation varied by region. North China was stable, East China had average trading, Central China had some price increases in Hubei, and South China's market center shifted down [1] - The basis in North China was - 36 yuan/ton with a spot price of 1020 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 29, the weekly total output of float glass was 1.057 million tons, flat month - on - month and - 3.375% year - on - year. The industry average operating rate was 71.86%, up 0.24% month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate was 75.7%, flat month - on - month. One production line was restarted but had not yet produced glass [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 52.564 million heavy boxes, down 652,000 heavy boxes or 1.22% month - on - month and up 21.24% year - on - year. The inventory days were 22.8 days, 0.3 days less than the previous period [2] - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, domestic float glass exports were 87,000 tons, an increase of 2200 tons or 2.59% from the previous month. The net exports were 72,400 tons, a 4.51% increase month - on - month. The cumulative export volume from January to December was 1.0292 million tons, a 93.63% increase year - on - year [2] - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of natural - gas float glass was - 155.12 yuan/ton, up 3.57 yuan/ton week - on - week. The weekly average profit of coal - gas float glass was - 68.5 yuan/ton, down 3.39 yuan/ton week - on - week. The weekly average profit of petroleum - coke float glass was 1.07 yuan/ton, up 2.85 yuan/ton week - on - week [3] Main Logic Summary - The long - term losses of glass production lines have accelerated the capacity clearance of some enterprises, and there are still plans to cold - repair some production lines before the Spring Festival, so the supply side is expected to shrink further. However, real - estate demand has not improved, and downstream demand is expected to weaken further after February. The short - term price may fluctuate [4]

【冠通期货研究报告】 沪铜日报：多头止盈，盘面回落 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 30 日 【行情分析】 沪铜高开高走，日内下跌。供给方面，卡普斯通铜业公司称，因最大工会与公司未 达成集体谈判协议引发罢工，致其位于智利的曼托韦德铜矿停产，该矿预计 2025 年阴极 铜产量为 2.9 万至 3.2 万吨。TC/RC 费用保持弱稳，且出现进一步下探的趋势，市场对 供应端紧张的态度未曾改变。SMM 根据各家排产情况，预计 1 月国内电解铜产量环比下 降 1.45 万吨降幅为 1.23%，同比增加 15.63 万吨升幅为 14.78%。需求方面，截至 2025 年 12 月，铜表观消费量为 131.88 万吨，环比上月增长 4.00%。临近春节叠加铜价高 企，大多中小企业开启放假，对原料端的采购意愿低迷，终端新能源汽车表现不佳，其 他传统行业冰箱及空调等有出现小幅的上涨。消息称，多家房地产企业已不再被监管部 门要求每月上报"三道红线"相关数据，有利于后续房地产市场平稳发展。预测市场 Polymarket 显示，美联储前理事凯文·沃什被特朗普提名为美联储新主席的概率飙升至 79%。美元贬值，降息预期等引起的避险情绪推 ...