软商品日报-2025-03-25

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆, same as cotton, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Sugar: ★☆★, with a somewhat unclear trend, and the report suggests waiting and seeing [1] - Apple: ★☆★, showing a certain upward - driving force, and the report maintains a bullish view [1] - 20 - number rubber: ★☆★, with a somewhat unclear trend. The report suggests waiting and seeing for RU&BR, selling NR, and holding inter - variety arbitrage [1] - Natural rubber: Not clearly rated in the text, but the analysis is similar to 20 - number rubber [1][5] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Log: Not clearly rated, but the analysis shows a weak fundamental situation and a bearish price trend, suggesting waiting and seeing [7] 2. Core Views - The prices of different commodities show different trends. Some commodities are affected by factors such as supply and demand, production, and consumption. For some commodities, the report suggests waiting and seeing, while for others, it maintains a bullish or bearish view [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zheng cotton futures decline slightly, and domestic cotton spot prices see a partial increase in low - basis spreads, but the mainstream remains stable [2] - The domestic cotton yarn market is weak, with low inventory in spinning mills, weak downstream demand, and an uncertain future for textile exports due to tariffs [2] - US cotton's weekly signing data weakens, and there are expectations of a significant decrease in planting area. Attention should be paid to the planting intention report at the end of the month. The trading focus may shift to the new year [2] - The operation suggestion is to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar corrects. In the long - term, the trading focus of US sugar shifts to Brazil's sugar supply. The high sugar - alcohol ratio is bearish for US sugar, and Brazil's new - season output is uncertain [3] - In the domestic market, as the sugar - crushing season nears the end, the pressure of increased production is digested. The trading focus will shift to consumption and imports. The good domestic sugar sales and reduced imports are bullish for Zheng sugar [3] - However, the downward trend of US sugar and sufficient domestic supply limit the upward space of Zheng sugar. The operation suggestion is to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuates, and the spot market has good transactions, with prices rising slightly in some producing areas [4] - Due to low inventory, sellers are more reluctant to sell, and buyers' enthusiasm is high. With the rise in temperature and the approach of Tomb - Sweeping Festival, demand increases [4] - It is expected that the futures price will continue to rebound, and the operation should maintain a bullish view [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - RU fluctuates, NR rises and then falls, and BR declines. The spot price of domestic natural rubber rises slightly, and that of butadiene rubber rises sharply [5] - The global natural rubber supply is entering the growth period, and the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate drops significantly last week [5] - The domestic tire operating rate drops slightly, and the inventory of finished products in tire enterprises increases. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao and the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber increase [5] - The operation suggestion is to wait and see for RU&BR, sell NR, hold inter - variety arbitrage, and pay attention to the weather in Yunnan producing areas [5] Pulp - Pulp futures decline slightly, and the spot price remains stable. The domestic mainstream pulp inventory has been decreasing for three consecutive weeks [6] - There are new production - reduction news from overseas pulp mills, increasing the expectation of tight future supply. The import volume from January to February 2025 increases by 6.1% year - on - year [6] - The downstream demand is average, and there is high resistance to high - priced pulp. The operation suggestion is to wait and see [6] Log - The futures price fluctuates, and the spot price in Jiangsu Port drops by 10 yuan to 800 yuan per cubic meter [7] - The processing plant's construction orders are average, and the enthusiasm for purchasing logs is low. The supply from New Zealand is in a seasonal peak period, and the demand recovery is weak [7] - The inventory pressure is high, and the spot price is under pressure. It is expected that the futures price will be weak, and the operation suggestion is to wait and see [7]