黄金周报（2025.3.17-2025.3.23）：避险情绪和降息预期共振，金价不断创新高-2025-03-25

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Market risk aversion and interest - rate cut expectations drove gold prices to new highs last week. On March 21, the Shanghai gold futures price rose 1.73% to 706.96 yuan/gram, the COMEX gold futures price rose 1.16% to 3028.20 dollars/ounce, the gold T + D spot price rose 1.92% to 706.08 yuan/gram, and the London gold spot price rose 1.31% to 3022.79 dollars/ounce. The weakening of the US dollar index and US stocks, the dovish signal from the Fed's March meeting, and geopolitical uncertainties supported the gold price. However, the rebound of the US dollar on Friday and profit - taking by some bulls led to a decline in the gold price. Overall, the gold price rose significantly last week [1]. - This week (the week of March 24), the gold price may face short - term correction pressure. The better - than - expected US existing home sales data, the rebound of the US dollar index, the possible rebound of the US stocks, and the easing of tariff concerns may restrict the inflow of funds into the gold market [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Market Review - Gold Spot and Futures Price Movements: On March 21, the Shanghai gold futures price closed at 706.96 yuan/gram, up 12.00 yuan/gram from March 14; the COMEX gold futures price closed at 3028.20 dollars/ounce, up 34.60 dollars/ounce. The gold T + D spot price closed at 706.08 yuan/gram, up 13.28 yuan/gram, and the London gold spot price closed at 3022.79 dollars/ounce, up 39.00 dollars/ounce [3]. - Gold Basis: On March 21, the international gold basis (spot - futures) was - 11.80 dollars/ounce, up 0.15 dollars/ounce from the previous week; the Shanghai gold basis turned positive to 0.94 yuan/gram, up 1.44 yuan/gram [6]. - Gold Domestic - Foreign Price Spread: On March 21, the gold domestic - foreign price spread was 3.68 yuan/gram, up from - 0.20 yuan/gram the previous week. The gold - oil ratio remained flat, the gold - silver ratio increased significantly, and the gold - copper ratio decreased significantly [9]. - Position Analysis: In the spot market, the gold ETF holdings increased significantly last week. As of March 21, the holdings of the world's largest SPRD gold ETF fund were 930.51 tons, up 24.10 tons. The trading volume of domestic gold T + D increased by 14.43% to 213,494 kilograms. In the futures market, as of March 18, the long positions of gold CFTC asset management institutions increased significantly, and the short positions remained flat, leading to an increase in net long positions. The COMEX gold futures inventory and the SHFE gold inventory increased [15]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Fundamentals - Policy News: Germany's federal parliament passed a 500 - billion - euro special fund for infrastructure and climate protection, and the defense budget will receive an additional 100 billion euros. The Bank of England maintained the interest rate at 4.5%, and the call for an interest - rate cut weakened [17][19]. - Important Economic Data: The US initial jobless claims increased slightly, the JOLTS job openings decreased, the CPI and PPI decreased significantly, the ISM services PMI increased while the manufacturing PMI decreased, the unemployment rate increased, the non - farm payrolls increased slightly, the Michigan consumer confidence index decreased significantly, the durable goods orders increased significantly, and the core PCE decreased [21][23][26]. - Fed Policy Tracking: The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5% and will slow down the balance - sheet reduction from April. The updated dot - plot shows two interest - rate cuts in 2025, but the number of people who expect no rate cut this year increased from one to four [31]. - US Dollar Index Movement: The US dollar index first declined and then rose last week, up 0.40% to 104.15 as of March 21 [33]. - US TIPS Yield Movement: The US 10 - year TIPS yield decreased by 9bp to 1.92% last week [36]. - International Important Event Tracking: Tensions in the Middle East increased as Israel launched air strikes on Gaza and Lebanon. The US and Russia will hold talks on the Russia - Ukraine issue, and the Trump administration hopes to reach a cease - fire agreement by April 20 [39].