SXN(SH:600661) Minsheng Securities·2025-03-25 13:35Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on the company with a "Cautious Recommendation" rating [5] Core Viewpoints - The company, as a leading player in the off-campus education sector in Shanghai, is undergoing a strategic transformation focusing on non-subject training, which includes four major business segments: quality education, vocational education, adult education, and international and foundational education [1][2] - The "Double Reduction" policy has accelerated the clearing of supply in the education sector, leading to significant changes in the competitive landscape, with a notable reduction in the number of training institutions [1][23] - The company has a relatively high asset quality, with significant growth in usage rights assets and contract liabilities, which support its growth [2] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, founded in 1984, became the first listed company in the off-campus training sector in China after acquiring Shanghai Angli Education Technology Group in 2014 [10] - In 2023, the company transitioned to having a controlling shareholder, with CICC becoming the major stakeholder, which is expected to benefit its development [1][13] - The company has shifted its focus from subject training to non-subject training, resulting in a recovery in revenue after a significant decline [14][19] Industry Analysis - The "Double Reduction" policy has led to a drastic reduction in the number of training institutions, with offline institutions decreasing by 92.14% and online institutions by 87.07% as of February 2022 [23][25] - The competitive landscape in Shanghai has changed significantly, with leading companies adopting contraction strategies and some exiting the market entirely [26][31] - The demand for off-campus training remains strong in Shanghai due to high income levels and a growing population, particularly in the K12 segment [35][37] Company Analysis - The company is implementing a dual-line strategy focusing on K12 quality education and expanding vocational education through a B2B2C model [2][19] - The company has a high asset quality, with cash flow improving and significant growth in usage rights assets and contract liabilities [2][4] - The company is expected to benefit from the release of market demand in Shanghai, supported by its core competitiveness and the backing of its controlling shareholder [3] Financial Analysis - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 1.235 billion, 1.597 billion, and 2.081 billion yuan, with respective growth rates of 27.9%, 29.3%, and 30.3% [3][4] - The company is expected to turn profitable by 2026, with net profits projected to be 0.97 billion yuan, reflecting a significant recovery from previous losses [3][4]