2025年3月MLF操作解读：掠过最紧张时刻

Monetary Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has shifted to a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price level bidding for Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operations, marking a departure from its previous policy rate identity[3] - The MLF net injection of CNY 63 billion this month signifies a transition from net withdrawal to net injection, indicating a crucial policy signal for maintaining market liquidity[4] - The strength of the monetary easing signal is ranked as follows: open market operations buying government bonds > reserve requirement ratio cuts > MLF net injection[4] Market Conditions - Liquidity has passed its most tense moments, but substantial easing is expected to arrive in Q2 2025[7] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.7% and 1.85% in the short term, with a low probability of annual-level adjustments unless a strong economic recovery occurs[29] - The nominal GDP growth rate for China in 2025 is forecasted at 4.9%, with CPI and PPI expected to rise modestly to 0.9% and -0.2% respectively by year-end[40] Economic Narratives - Three narratives are anticipated to be tested in 2025: 1. The scale and effectiveness of special bonds for land reserves exceed expectations, leading to a strong rebound in real estate[33] 2. Policy stimuli drive consumer recovery better than expected, although consumer willingness remains a slow variable[34] 3. Breakthroughs in Deepseek technology spur a new round of capital expenditure, boosting economic growth[34] Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential misinterpretation of policies, unexpected central bank actions, and government bond issuance falling short of expectations[48] - The adjustment risks in the bond market have not been eliminated, and a shift in monetary policy priorities or market risk preferences is necessary for risk alleviation[43]