1~2月经济数据点评：供给强劲、需求改善

Production - Industrial added value increased by 5.9% year-on-year in January-February, indicating strong supply-side performance despite high base effects[20] - Export-driven industries, such as machinery and textile manufacturing, showed significant growth, with aerospace and electrical machinery industries growing by 20.8% and 12.0% respectively[21] - The cumulative growth rate of export delivery value in February reached 6.2%, surpassing last year's annual growth rate[21] Investment - Fixed asset investment growth improved to 4.1% in January-February, up 0.9 percentage points from the full year of 2024[30] - Broad infrastructure investment maintained a high growth rate of 9.9%, driven primarily by central government-led projects, particularly in power infrastructure, which grew by 33.5%[30] - Real estate investment decline narrowed to below -10.0% for the first time in eight months, with significant improvements in funding sources and sales[32] Consumption - Social retail sales increased by 4.0% year-on-year in January-February, primarily driven by a 4.3% increase in catering services, reflecting strong demand during the Spring Festival[50] - The "old-for-new" policy contributed to a 4.4% growth in retail sales of consumer goods, with essential consumption growing by 9.4%[50] - Significant growth in categories influenced by the "old-for-new" policy included home appliances and communication devices, with home appliances growing by 10.9%[56] Outlook - The economic data for 2025 shows a positive start, with demand-side improvements attributed to several factors, including concentrated consumption during the Spring Festival and supportive central investment projects[57] - Future uncertainties include potential impacts from U.S. tariff reviews and the effectiveness of domestic consumption stimulus measures[57] - Local government debt optimization may open up investment space, potentially leading to a recovery in narrow infrastructure growth rates[57]