JINNENG(603113) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-03-25 16:01Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance has been impacted by a decline in profitability from its olefin and carbon black segments, prompting a focus on recovery at the bottom of the cycle [4] - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 16.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, but reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of -0.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 142.13% [4] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards, with expected profits of 0.125 billion yuan, 0.22 billion yuan, and 0.33 billion yuan respectively, reflecting significant growth rates of 316.3%, 76.1%, and 51.4% [4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported an operating income of 162.65 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.5% [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was -0.58 billion yuan, a decline of 142.1% compared to the previous year [8] - The gross margin for 2024 was 1.8%, with a projected increase to 4.0% in 2025 [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 0.15 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 40.8 times [8] Segment Performance - Olefin segment: In 2024, the company produced 1.1447 million tons of olefins, a year-on-year increase of 37%, with a selling price of 6451.5 yuan per ton, up 3.6% year-on-year [5] - Carbon black segment: The production volume was 672,000 tons, with a selling price of 6880.9 yuan per ton, down 7.8% year-on-year [5] - Coking segment: The company sold 2.101 million tons of coking products, with a selling price of 1450 yuan per ton, down 18.3% year-on-year [5] Capacity Expansion and Future Outlook - The Qingdao Phase II olefin project has been fully operational since the second half of 2024, increasing olefin capacity from 90,000 tons/year to 180,000 tons/year [6] - The company aims to enhance its energy utilization structure and improve the capacity utilization rate of its carbon black facilities, which is expected to lower costs and enhance competitiveness [6]