Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The geopolitical situation and sanctions were the main drivers of the previous crude oil rebound. The overnight Russia-Ukraine war negotiation eased the pressure on oil supply, but the risks of economic recession and weak demand have not been eliminated. Short-term trading is recommended [1]. - The domestic soda ash market is stable, with prices firm, production and operation rates increasing, and downstream demand average. The 05 contract of soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short-term long trades [2]. - The fundamentals of coke have been alleviated, but the demand outlook is poor, and there are still voices of a twelfth round of price cuts. The short-term futures market is expected to fluctuate [4]. - Steel prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term. Although the steel market has seen an increase in volume and price, the demand sustainability is insufficient [5]. - The national pig price is adjusting narrowly. It is recommended to conduct short-term long trades on near-month contracts and lay out long positions on the LH2509 contract in the medium and long term [5]. - The price of palm oil is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to international biodiesel policies, high-frequency supply and demand data from the origin, and domestic inventory changes [6]. - The price of PTA may fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to reduce long positions and conduct short-term trades [7]. - The 05 contract of methanol is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short-term long trades [8]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - As of the week ending March 21, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 4.6 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.3 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 1.3 million barrels [1]. - The Russia-US talks achieved five main results, which eased the pressure on oil supply [1]. - In April, OPEC+ will gradually withdraw from voluntary production cuts, and Trump's tariff measures may impact the market again [1]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash in China is 1,510 yuan/ton, and the operation rate is 85.3%, a 2.8% increase from the previous day [2]. - The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.6878 million tons, a 2.73% decrease from the previous period [2]. - The operation rate of float glass is 75.76%, a 0.34% decrease from the previous week [2]. Coke - The daily output of coke from 247 steel mills increased by 0.14 to 47.42, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 0.26% to 87.46% [4]. - Coke inventories decreased by 15.58 to 662.83, and the available days decreased by 0.79 to 12.84 days [4]. - The eleventh round of price cuts has been implemented, and there are still voices of a twelfth round of price cuts [4]. Rebar - On March 25, the domestic building materials market prices continued to rise, and the plate market prices were mixed [5]. - The average price of rebar in major cities across the country was 3,382 yuan/ton, a 17 yuan/ton increase from the previous trading day [5]. - The steel market has seen an increase in volume and price, but the demand sustainability is insufficient [5]. Pig - On March 25, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.68 yuan/kg, a 1.8% decrease from the previous day [5]. - The national pig price is adjusting narrowly, and it is recommended to conduct short-term long trades on near-month contracts and lay out long positions on the LH2509 contract in the medium and long term [5]. Palm Oil - From March 1 - 25, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 8.08% and 8.74% respectively [6]. - From March 1 - 20, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 9.48% month-on-month [6]. - The price of palm oil is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. PTA - The current CFR price of PX is 844 US dollars/ton, and the PX - N is 204 US dollars/ton [7]. - The polyester operation rate increased by 2.6% to 91.5%, and the comprehensive operation rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms decreased by 1% to 73.0% [7]. - The price of PTA may fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to reduce long positions and conduct short-term trades [7]. Methanol - The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 63,500 tons, a decrease of 3,300 tons from the previous week [8]. - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,677 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan/ton [8]. - The 05 contract of methanol is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short-term long trades [8].
宁证期货今日早评-2025-03-26
Ning Zheng Qi Huo·2025-03-26 02:01